Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

CFL Week 8 predictions, picks and best bets: Fade the Argonauts without Chad Kelly, bet on offence in Tiger-Cats/Lions clash

CFL Week 8 predictions

If you’re searching for offence, look no further than this week’s closing matchup between the BC Lions and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

This week’s CFL narrative: Nathan Rourke (BC) and Bo Levi Mitchell (Hamilton) have put up huge numbers so far, and that should continue on Sunday night. Week 8 action kicks off with a big matchup between the Calgary Stampeders and the Montreal Alouettes, two teams sitting at the top of their respective divisions.

Check out the latest CFL Week 8 predictions for the games beginning Thursday, July 24.

CFL Week 8 predictions

Best bet: Stampeders -7 (-110)

The Montreal Alouettes are still Grey Cup favourites, but that won’t be the case much longer if quarterback Davis Alexander can’t stay healthy.

Alexander aggravated a hamstring injury on a late, go-ahead touchdown scamper against the Toronto Argonauts last week. Montreal won, 26-25, which meant it didn’t even come close to covering the -9.5 spread in that game.

Far more importantly, the Als lost their quarterback for at least a week.

Alexander failed to practice all week and was ruled out. The Als’ most targeted receiver, Tyson Philpot (hamstring), will also miss Thursday’s game.

This pick is less about Montreal’s woes, though, and more about Calgary’s successes.

In Week 7, the Stampeders stuck it to their doubters once again. They dominated the Blue Bombers in a 41-20 rout on the road as 4.5-point underdogs.

That kept Calgary (5-1) atop the West Division, and it was the team’s fifth straight-up win as an underdog already this season.

We now have to lay points with the team that has the No. 1 total offence and the No. 1 scoring defence, but that’s fine with me. All five of Calgary’s wins have come by 10+ points.

The Stampeders’ +70 point differential works out to 11.7 points per game. No other CFL team has a margin that’s even half as good.

Key stat: Montreal is 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) when Alexander starts and 0-2 SU (0-2 ATS) without him.

Full CFL betting markets

More best bets

Tiger-Cats/Lions over 55.5 points (-110): This is a hefty point total, but it’s one I think the Ti-Cats and Lions can exceed through strong quarterback play.

  • Hamilton’s Bo Levi Mitchell leads the CFL in passing yards (1,812) and passing TDs (12).
  • BC’s Nathan Rourke is third in yards per attempt (9.4) and second in TDs (10).

Rourke, who missed some time with an oblique injury, looks as dangerous as ever right now. The Ohio University grad has thrown for six TDs and over 1,000 yards in his past three games.

BC has averaged 27.8 PPG in the four games that Rourke played in full.

As for Hamilton, the team boasts the No. 1 scoring offence in the CFL (31.3 PPG).

Two of the Ti-Cats’ three road games have gone over 60 total points. Also, overs were 2-0 when these teams met last year.

Blue Bombers -5 (-112): Winnipeg is coming off a pair of losses to the red-hot Stampeders, but that hasn’t changed my opinion of this team at large.

Relative to most of the CFL, the Bombers are still among the very best. There’s a reason they’ve reached five straight Grey Cups.

This year’s squad currently ranks in the top four in total offence and defence. And prior to the Calgary matchups, Winnipeg had gotten off to a 3-0 start (ATS and SU).

Toronto (1-5) is 0-3 ATS at home and will roll with backup QB Nick Arbuckle again this week.

Arbuckle is dead last in the CFL in passer rating (93.6), and he’s taken a league-high 16 sacks through six games.

CFL Week 8 predictions as of 4:30 p.m. on 07/23/2025.

CFL Week 8 predictions, picks and best bets: Fade the Argonauts without Chad Kelly, bet on offence in Tiger-Cats/Lions clash

CFL Week 8 predictions

If you’re searching for offence, look no further than this week’s closing matchup between the BC Lions and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

This week’s CFL narrative: Nathan Rourke (BC) and Bo Levi Mitchell (Hamilton) have put up huge numbers so far, and that should continue on Sunday night. Week 8 action kicks off with a big matchup between the Calgary Stampeders and the Montreal Alouettes, two teams sitting at the top of their respective divisions.

Check out the latest CFL Week 8 predictions for the games beginning Thursday, July 24.

CFL Week 8 predictions

Best bet: Stampeders -7 (-110)

The Montreal Alouettes are still Grey Cup favourites, but that won’t be the case much longer if quarterback Davis Alexander can’t stay healthy.

Alexander aggravated a hamstring injury on a late, go-ahead touchdown scamper against the Toronto Argonauts last week. Montreal won, 26-25, which meant it didn’t even come close to covering the -9.5 spread in that game.

Far more importantly, the Als lost their quarterback for at least a week.

Alexander failed to practice all week and was ruled out. The Als’ most targeted receiver, Tyson Philpot (hamstring), will also miss Thursday’s game.

This pick is less about Montreal’s woes, though, and more about Calgary’s successes.

In Week 7, the Stampeders stuck it to their doubters once again. They dominated the Blue Bombers in a 41-20 rout on the road as 4.5-point underdogs.

That kept Calgary (5-1) atop the West Division, and it was the team’s fifth straight-up win as an underdog already this season.

We now have to lay points with the team that has the No. 1 total offence and the No. 1 scoring defence, but that’s fine with me. All five of Calgary’s wins have come by 10+ points.

The Stampeders’ +70 point differential works out to 11.7 points per game. No other CFL team has a margin that’s even half as good.

Key stat: Montreal is 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) when Alexander starts and 0-2 SU (0-2 ATS) without him.

Embed: #116212

Full CFL betting markets

CFL Week 8 best bets

Tiger-Cats/Lions over 55.5 points (-110): This is a hefty point total, but it’s one I think the Ti-Cats and Lions can exceed through strong quarterback play.

  • Hamilton’s Bo Levi Mitchell leads the CFL in passing yards (1,812) and passing TDs (12).
  • BC’s Nathan Rourke is third in yards per attempt (9.4) and second in TDs (10).

Rourke, who missed some time with an oblique injury, looks as dangerous as ever right now. The Ohio University grad has thrown for six TDs and over 1,000 yards in his past three games.

BC has averaged 27.8 PPG in the four games that Rourke played in full.

As for Hamilton, the team boasts the No. 1 scoring offence in the CFL (31.3 PPG).

Two of the Ti-Cats’ three road games have gone over 60 total points. Also, overs were 2-0 when these teams met last year.

Blue Bombers -4.5 (-110): Winnipeg is coming off a pair of losses to the red-hot Stampeders, but that hasn’t changed my opinion of this team at large.

Relative to most of the CFL, the Bombers are still among the very best. There’s a reason they’ve reached five straight Grey Cups.

This year’s squad currently ranks in the top four in total offence and defence. And prior to the Calgary matchups, Winnipeg had gotten off to a 3-0 start (ATS and SU).

Toronto (1-5) is 0-3 ATS at home and will roll with backup QB Nick Arbuckle again this week.

Arbuckle is dead last in the CFL in passer rating (93.6), and he’s taken a league-high 16 sacks through six games.

CFL Week 8 predictions as of 2:50 p.m. on 07/23/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 23: Look for Luzardo, Cecconi to excel on the mound

MLB prop bets

It’s an all-pitcher edition of MLB prop bets on Wednesday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: In the afternoon slate, Tyler Glasnow looks to overpower the Minnesota Twins as he has in the past. And later on, both Jesus Luzardo and Slade Cecconi have compelling opportunities to shine on the mound.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 23.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Glasnow over 6.5 strikeouts (-143)

Glasnow has made mincemeat of the Twins in the past, and I think except more of the same tonight.

Minnesota is actually a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of strikeout rate, with the 16th-highest K% in MLB (22.1%).

But in 52 career plate appearances vs. Glasnow, the Twins’ active roster has looked a lot more lost than that:

  • 26 Ks (50.0 K%)
  • 40.2% whiff rate
  • 7-for-51 (.137 BA)
  • .196 SLG

A 50.0% strikeout rate is absurd. And unsustainable. But a sample size of 52 plate appearances isn’t nothing.

Glasnow’s primary strikeout weapon is his curveball. Opponents are 2-for-25 (.080) with 13 Ks against that offering this year. Oh, and the Twins have struggled mightily against that pitch type this year.

Minnesota has the third-highest whiff rate against curveballs from right-handed pitchers (36.9%), per Baseball Savant.

Glasnow will be making his third start since returning from the 60-day injured list with a shoulder issue. He’s built up enough to mow the Twins down.

Key stat: In his lone start against the Twins last season, Glasnow struck out 14 batters over 7.0 scoreless innings — and he only needed 88 pitches to do so.

Best MLB picks

Luzardo over 6.5 Ks (-125): Luzardo has enjoyed a solid bounce-back year with some impressive swing-and-miss stuff.

The left-hander ranks in the 78th percentile or better in chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate.

He’s got a 10.7 K/9 this year, which is eighth among 59 qualified pitchers.

Over his past five starts, Luzardo is 4-1 vs. this prop. In the outlier, he was chased after just 2.0 innings … but he still had four Ks in that game.

Boston has the 12th-highest K% vs. LHPs (24.0%).

Cecconi over 17.5 outs (-112): In a rare 1-for-1 trade that is working out for both sides, Cecconi came over to the Guardians this past winter in a swap that sent Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks.

Cecconi, a first-round pick in 2020, has a 3.84 ERA through 11 starts. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but his command is solid and he knows how to eat innings.

  • He’s averaging 17.3 outs per start and is coming off a career-high 8.1 IP.
  • He’s 3-0 vs. this prop in July and has pitched into the sixth or deeper in eight of 11 games.

On Wednesday, Cecconi will face an Orioles squad that is scraping for offence right now. Over the past two weeks, Baltimore ranks 27th in wRC+ (79) and 30th in on-base percentage (.277).

MLB prop picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET on 07/23/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 23: Look for Luzardo, Cecconi to excel on the mound

MLB prop bets

It’s an all-pitcher edition of MLB prop bets on Wednesday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: In the afternoon slate, Tyler Glasnow looks to overpower the Minnesota Twins as he has in the past. And later on, both Jesus Luzardo and Slade Cecconi have compelling opportunities to shine on the mound.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 23.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Glasnow over 6.5 strikeouts (-134)

Glasnow has made mincemeat of the Twins in the past, and I think except more of the same tonight.

Minnesota is actually a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of strikeout rate, with the 16th-highest K% in MLB (22.1%).

But in 52 career plate appearances vs. Glasnow, the Twins’ active roster has looked a lot more lost than that:

  • 26 Ks (50.0 K%)
  • 40.2% whiff rate
  • 7-for-51 (.137 BA)
  • .196 SLG

A 50.0% strikeout rate is absurd. And unsustainable. But a sample size of 52 plate appearances isn’t nothing.

Glasnow’s primary strikeout weapon is his curveball. Opponents are 2-for-25 (.080) with 13 Ks against that offering this year. Oh, and the Twins have struggled mightily against that pitch type this year.

Minnesota has the third-highest whiff rate against curveballs from right-handed pitchers (36.9%), per Baseball Savant.

Glasnow will be making his third start since returning from the 60-day injured list with a shoulder issue. He’s built up enough to mow the Twins down.

Key stat: In his lone start against the Twins last season, Glasnow struck out 14 batters over 7.0 scoreless innings — and he only needed 88 pitches to do so.

Embed: #116194

Best MLB picks

Luzardo over 6.5 Ks (-121): Luzardo has enjoyed a solid bounce-back year with some impressive swing-and-miss stuff.

The left-hander ranks in the 78th percentile or better in chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate.

He’s got a 10.7 K/9 this year, which is eighth among 59 qualified pitchers.

Over his past five starts, Luzardo is 4-1 vs. this prop. In the outlier, he was chased after just 2.0 innings … but he still had four Ks in that game.

Boston has the 12th-highest K% vs. LHPs (24.0%).

Cecconi over 16.5 outs (-124): In a rare 1-for-1 trade that is working out for both sides, Cecconi came over to the Guardians this past winter in a swap that sent Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks.

Cecconi, a first-round pick in 2020, has a 3.84 ERA through 11 starts. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but his command is solid and he knows how to eat innings.

  • He’s averaging 17.3 outs per start and is coming off a career-high 8.1 IP.
  • He’s 3-0 vs. this prop in July and has pitched into the sixth or deeper in eight of 11 games.

On Wednesday, Cecconi will face an Orioles squad that is scraping for offence right now. Over the past two weeks, Baltimore ranks 27th in wRC+ (79) and 30th in on-base percentage (.277).

MLB prop picks made at 11:49 a.m. ET on 07/23/2025.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays prop picks July 23: Fade Fried, look for Schneider to get a hit

Blue Jays picks

The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees square off in a rubber match at Rogers Centre on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: A ninth-inning homer for New York levelled the series, but Toronto still holds a three-game lead in the AL East. Tonight, Max Fried and the Yankees are slight favourites over Chris Bassitt and the Jays.

Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks for July 23, featuring Fried, Davis Schneider and Trent Grisham.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks

Best Bet: Grisham over 0.5 runs (-106)

The Yankees have hit Bassitt really well, collectively posting a .304 BA and a .513 SLG in 115 at-bats.

That includes Bassitt’s July 3 outing at home, when New York put up three runs on eight hits over 5.2 innings. Grisham saw Bassitt four times that day, going 1-for-2 with a home run and a pair of walks.

Grisham and Bassitt’s head-to-head history now looks like this: 4-for-14 (.286), two HRs, six walks.

That’s a .500 OBP with some power mixed in. Sounds good to me.

The moustachioed outfielder has a sky-high walk rate (13.5%, 93rd percentile), and he rarely chases (16.9%, 99th percentile). That’s what you want out of a leadoff man.

All I’m looking for is Grisham to reach base somehow and let the rest of New York’s fearsome lineup do what it does. At this price, I think there’s plenty of value in that.

Key stat: Since June 19, Grisham is 11-7 vs. this prop in 18 starts. He also has a .934 OPS in that span.

Quick picks

Schneider over 0.5 hits (-120): Schneider laced a pinch-hit double down the line in the sixth inning last night, making the most of his righty-versus-lefty platoon advantage.

The third-year player has a .255/.406/.490 slash line against lefties this season and should be in there against Fried on Wednesday.

Schneider is too much of an all-or-nothing hitter, with lots of pop and lots of whiffs in his profile. But he’s in a rhythm right now, and I know he’s at his best against southpaws.

Since June 30, Schneider is 10-for-34 (.294) with a 1.106 OPS. He’s 7-5 vs. this prop in 12 starts over that span.

Fried under 4.5 Ks (-143): This will be Fried’s third outing against Toronto this season, and that amount of familiarity should work in the Blue Jays’ favour.

But also, the Jays are a tough bunch for any pitcher to fool.

  • Toronto has the lowest overall strikeout rate in MLB (17.4%), as well as the lowest against LHPs (18.0%).
  • Fried has five Ks combined in two starts vs. Toronto this year (12.0 innings).
  • In 80 combined plate appearances vs. the Jays’ active lineup, Fried has just 11 strikeouts (13.8 K%).

Fried works deep enough into games to cash this bet more often than not, but Toronto is as tough of a matchup as he could have.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:39 a.m. ET on 07/23/2025.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays prop picks July 23: Fade Fried, look for Schneider to get a hit

Blue Jays picks

The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees square off in a rubber match at Rogers Centre on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: A ninth-inning homer for New York levelled the series, but Toronto still holds a three-game lead in the AL East. Tonight, Max Fried and the Yankees are slight favourites over Chris Bassitt and the Jays.

Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks for July 23, featuring Fried, Davis Schneider and Trent Grisham.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks

Best Bet: Grisham over 0.5 runs (+102)

I backed Grisham to score yesterday, and he cashed that prop at +100.

I don’t understand why he has an even more enticing price tonight, but I’ll gladly jump on it.

The Yankees have hit Bassitt really well, collectively posting a .304 BA and a .513 SLG in 115 at-bats.

That includes Bassitt’s July 3 outing at home, when New York put up three runs on eight hits over 5.2 innings. Grisham saw Bassitt four times that day, going 1-for-2 with a home run and a pair of walks.

Grisham and Bassitt’s head-to-head history now looks like this: 4-for-14 (.286), two HRs, six walks.

That’s a .500 OBP with some power mixed in. Sounds good to me.

The moustachioed outfielder has a sky-high walk rate (13.5%, 93rd percentile), and he rarely chases (16.9%, 99th percentile). That’s what you want out of a leadoff man.

All I’m looking for is Grisham to reach base somehow and let the rest of New York’s fearsome lineup do what it does. At this price, I think there’s plenty of value in that.

Key stat: Since June 19, Grisham is 11-7 vs. this prop in 18 starts. He also has a .934 OPS in that span.

Embed: #116192

Quick picks

Schneider over 0.5 hits (-118): Schneider laced a pinch-hit double down the line in the sixth inning last night, making the most of his righty-versus-lefty platoon advantage.

The third-year player has a .255/.406/.490 slash line against lefties this season and should be in there against Fried on Wednesday.

Schneider is too much of an all-or-nothing hitter, with lots of pop and lots of whiffs in his profile. But he’s in a rhythm right now, and I know he’s at his best against southpaws.

Since June 30, Schneider is 10-for-34 (.294) with a 1.106 OPS. He’s 7-5 vs. this prop in 12 starts over that span.

Fried under 4.5 Ks (-129): This will be Fried’s third outing against Toronto this season, and that amount of familiarity should work in the Blue Jays’ favour.

But also, the Jays are a tough bunch for any pitcher to fool.

  • Toronto has the lowest overall strikeout rate in MLB (17.4%), as well as the lowest against LHPs (18.0%).
  • Fried has five Ks combined in two starts vs. Toronto this year (12.0 innings).
  • In 80 combined plate appearances vs. the Jays’ active lineup, Fried has just 11 strikeouts (13.8 K%).

Fried works deep enough into games to cash this bet more often than not, but Toronto is as tough of a matchup as he could have.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:39 a.m. ET on 07/23/2025.

Brewers vs. Mariners SGP predictions July 22: Misiorowski, Milwaukee aim to extend win streak to 12

Brewers vs. Mariners predictions

The Milwaukee Brewers are must-see TV right now — especially with Jacob Misiorowski on the mound.

The pregame narrative: Misiorowski was a stunning all-star selection after just five MLB starts, but he does have some truly electric stuff. Oh, and his Brewers have won 11 games in a row to claim the league’s top record. Will the streak stay alive on Tuesday against the Seattle Mariners?

Check out my Brewers vs. Mariners predictions, featuring Misiorowski and Christian Yelich.

Brewers vs. Mariners predictions

Parlay: Misiorowski over 6.5 Ks | Yelich over 0.5 hits | Brewers +1.5 (+310)

Misiorowski over 6.5 strikeouts (+112): Less than five weeks after his debut, Misiorowski was on the mound at the MLB All-Star Game. We’ve never seen anything like that before.

But there’s a reason Misiorowski is rising quickly in the eyes of fans and his peers: He’s a highly-touted prospect who throws absolute gas.

Through five MLB starts, Misiorowski has thrown 89 pitches at 100 mph or above, per Baseball Savant. That’s already seventh-most in the league.

You don’t always need the hard stuff to rack up strikeouts, but it doesn’t hurt. Coming off a 12-strikeout performance before the Midsummer Classic, Misiorowski has cashed this bet in three of his past four.

The Mariners have never faced him before, which should put the advantage in the hands of Misiorowski.

Also, Seattle has the ninth-highest K rate in the majors this year (22.8%).

Embed: #116154

MLB SGP legs

Yelich over 0.5 hits (-165): This is more juice than I’d want to pay for a straight wager, but I actually think this is a well-priced prop.

Yelich has been playing his best baseball since June 15, batting .333 with a .953 OPS.

He has at least one hit in 24 of 27 games in that span.

Seattle’s Logan Gilbert is tough on most hitters, but Yelich has mashed some of his pitches in the past. In this head-to-head matchup, the former NL MVP is 3-for-6 with two home runs.

Also, the left-hitting Yelich will have a platoon advantage tonight. He’s posted a .282 BA against RHPs this season.

Brewers +1.5 (-240): There are simply too many things going Milwaukee’s way right now. I have to back the Brew Crew on the run line.

  • Over the past 30 days, Milwaukee ranks sixth in wRC+ (118) and second in ERA (3.04).
  • The Brewers have won 11 games in a row … and seven of those wins came by multiple runs.
  • Milwaukee is 37-17 ATS (68.5%) as run line underdogs. Seattle, meanwhile, is just 20-45 ATS (30.8%) as run line favourites.

Gilbert is a nasty pitcher, but his results have been largely pedestrian since he returned from the injured list in mid-June.

He has a 4.40 ERA over his past six outings, and the Mariners are 2-4 vs. a -1.5 spread.

With Misiorowski on the mound, the Brewers are 4-1 straight up.

Brewers vs. Mariners predictions made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 07/22/2025.

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Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bet July 22: George Springer has value on his total bases prop

Blue Jays picks

On Tuesday night, the Toronto Blue Jays look to move to 5-0 in the second half with a matchup against the New York Yankees.

The pregame narrative: A groundswell of buzz is building around the Jays, who are 4.0 games clear of the Yankees atop the talented AL East. Max Scherzer, who gets the start for Toronto tonight, tossed five solid innings vs. New York in a home win last month.

Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bet for July 22, featuring George Springer.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bet

Best Bet: Springer over 1.5 total bases (+105)

When there’s a pitcher on the mound with little-to-no MLB experience, it can be difficult to know where to turn in the prop market.

Yankees starter Cam Schlittler has just one big-league start to his name. But there’s still enough to draw upon that makes me interested in Springer tonight.

Firstly, Springer is ripping it up this month:

  • In 14 starts, he has a .333/.403/.667 slash line and is 8-6 vs. his bases prop.
  • His strikeout rate is down (15.0%, compared to 19.3% on the season) and his hard-hit rate is up (52.0%, compared to 47.0% on the season).
  • Springer has a .326 xBA, per Baseball Savant, which is nearly aligned with his .333 actual BA.

So before even thinking about Schlittler, there’s a lot to like about how the veteran outfielder is performing these days.

I do think this is a compelling matchup for Springer, though, based on Schlittler’s pitch mix.

It’s only one game, but Schlittler threw nothing but four-seam fastballs, sliders and sweepers against right-hitting players in his MLB debut.

Against righty pitchers, Springer has a .531 SLG (.614 xSLG) this season when seeing those exact pitch types.

Key stat: Schlittler’s fastball averages 97.1 mph, and Springer can handle the heat. Facing pitches thrown 97 mph or harder this year, Springer is 9-for-23 (.391) with a .652 SLG.

Blue Jays best made at 12:01 p.m. ET on 07/22/2025.

MLB home run picks July 22: Target Suzuki, McMahon and a +500 long shot

MLB home run picks

Tuesday’s MLB home run picks include Seiya Suzuki as the headliner and a +500 long shot.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Suzuki has been a menace against left-handed pitching, and I think he’ll have a field day against a shaky southpaw tonight. Elsewhere in MLB, look for Ryan McMahon and Yoan Moncada to make noise.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 22.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Suzuki to hit a home run (+290)

Rich Hill is a baseball treasure, but I also think he’s worth targeting on Tuesday night in the Windy City.

The 45-year-old lefty will make his 2025 season debut for the Kansas City Royals after grinding out 11 starts in the minors.

He’d only made seven minor-league starts combined from 2016-24, so his extended stay this year sticks out. It’s a reminder that he really had to prove he was capable of returning to the top level.

But … did he prove that?

After two outings in rookie ball, Hill moved up to Triple-A Omaha and had some uninspiring results:

  • 9 starts
  • 9 HRs
  • 5.36 ERA
  • .264 opponent BA

His 1.92 HR/9 in Triple-A is higher than any of the 61 qualified MLB pitchers this year.

The soft-tossing southpaw should be a nice matchup for Suzuki, who has crushed lefties this year. He has a 150 wRC+ vs. LHPs, which ranks 18th in MLB.

Suzuki is also tied for sixth in MLB in home runs (26), so he knows a thing or two about going yard.

Key stat: In his past 24 games, Suzuki has eight HRs and a .600 SLG.

Best HR predictions

McMahon to hit a home run (+320): McMahon is a three-true-outcome hitter, with lots of pop, walks and whiffs.

  • 3rd-percentile strikeout rate (31.6%)
  • 86th-percentile walk rate (12.0%)
  • 97th-percentile exit velocity (93.8 mph)

Tonight, he’ll face a pitcher in Erick Fedde who ranks in the bottom 10th percentile in xERA, xBA, K rate and whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. So I don’t expect McMahon to be fooled much.

The left-hitting infielder will have a platoon advantage, and he’s playing in the ultra-hitter-friendly Coors Field.

So far this season, 10 of McMahon’s 15 homers have come at Coors — including a pair of HRs in four games since the all-star break.

Moncada to hit a home run (+500): Moncada never reached the heights that were expected of him with the White Sox, but maybe his time with the Angels will be a rebirth for his career.

The 30-year-old has eight homers and a .500 SLG in 38 games (35 starts) for L.A. He’s homered in two of his past five.

As a switch-hitter, Moncada will bat from the left side tonight against right-hander Frankie Montas. New York’s Citi Field allows 19% more homers to left-hitting players than average, per Baseball Savant.

Montas (2-1, 5.03 ERA) has been hit hard through four starts. He’s allowed four HRs and a .487 SLG.

MLB home run picks made at 11:54 a.m. ET on 07/22/2025.

MLB home run picks July 22: Target Suzuki, McMahon and a +650 long shot

MLB home run picks

Tuesday’s MLB home run picks include Seiya Suzuki as the headliner and a +650 long shot.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Suzuki has been a menace against left-handed pitching, and I think he’ll have a field day against a shaky southpaw tonight. Elsewhere in MLB, look for Ryan McMahon and Yoan Moncada to make noise.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 22.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Suzuki to hit a home run (+350)

Rich Hill is a baseball treasure, but I also think he’s worth targeting on Tuesday night in the Windy City.

The 45-year-old lefty will make his 2025 season debut for the Kansas City Royals after grinding out 11 starts in the minors.

He’d only made seven minor-league starts combined from 2016-24, so his extended stay this year sticks out. It’s a reminder that he really had to prove he was capable of returning to the top level.

But … did he prove that?

After two outings in rookie ball, Hill moved up to Triple-A Omaha and had some uninspiring results:

  • 9 starts
  • 9 HRs
  • 5.36 ERA
  • .264 opponent BA

His 1.92 HR/9 in Triple-A is higher than any of the 61 qualified MLB pitchers this year.

The soft-tossing southpaw should be a nice matchup for Suzuki, who has crushed lefties this year. He has a 150 wRC+ vs. LHPs, which ranks 18th in MLB.

Suzuki is also tied for sixth in MLB in home runs (26), so he knows a thing or two about going yard.

Key stat: In his past 24 games, Suzuki has eight HRs and a .600 SLG.

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Best HR predictions

McMahon to hit a home run (+410): McMahon is a three-true-outcome hitter, with lots of pop, walks and whiffs.

  • 3rd-percentile strikeout rate (31.6%)
  • 86th-percentile walk rate (12.0%)
  • 97th-percentile exit velocity (93.8 mph)

Tonight, he’ll face a pitcher in Erick Fedde who ranks in the bottom 10th percentile in xERA, xBA, K rate and whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. So I don’t expect McMahon to be fooled much.

The left-hitting infielder will have a platoon advantage, and he’s playing in the ultra-hitter-friendly Coors Field.

So far this season, 10 of McMahon’s 15 homers have come at Coors — including a pair of HRs in four games since the all-star break.

Moncada to hit a home run (+650): Moncada never reached the heights that were expected of him with the White Sox, but maybe his time with the Angels will be a rebirth for his career.

The 30-year-old has eight homers and a .500 SLG in 38 games (35 starts) for L.A. He’s homered in two of his past five.

As a switch-hitter, Moncada will bat from the left side tonight against right-hander Frankie Montas. New York’s Citi Field allows 19% more homers to left-hitting players than average, per Baseball Savant.

Montas (2-1, 5.03 ERA) has been hit hard through four starts. He’s allowed four HRs and a .487 SLG.

MLB home run picks made at 11:14 a.m. ET on 07/22/2025.