The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees square off in a rubber match at Rogers Centre on Wednesday night.
The pregame narrative: A ninth-inning homer for New York levelled the series, but Toronto still holds a three-game lead in the AL East. Tonight, Max Fried and the Yankees are slight favourites over Chris Bassitt and the Jays.
Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks for July 23, featuring Fried, Davis Schneider and Trent Grisham.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays picks
Best Bet: Grisham over 0.5 runs (-106)
The Yankees have hit Bassitt really well, collectively posting a .304 BA and a .513 SLG in 115 at-bats.
That includes Bassitt’s July 3 outing at home, when New York put up three runs on eight hits over 5.2 innings. Grisham saw Bassitt four times that day, going 1-for-2 with a home run and a pair of walks.
Grisham and Bassitt’s head-to-head history now looks like this: 4-for-14 (.286), two HRs, six walks.
That’s a .500 OBP with some power mixed in. Sounds good to me.
The moustachioed outfielder has a sky-high walk rate (13.5%, 93rd percentile), and he rarely chases (16.9%, 99th percentile). That’s what you want out of a leadoff man.
All I’m looking for is Grisham to reach base somehow and let the rest of New York’s fearsome lineup do what it does. At this price, I think there’s plenty of value in that.
Key stat: Since June 19, Grisham is 11-7 vs. this prop in 18 starts. He also has a .934 OPS in that span.
Quick picks
Schneider over 0.5 hits (-120): Schneider laced a pinch-hit double down the line in the sixth inning last night, making the most of his righty-versus-lefty platoon advantage.
The third-year player has a .255/.406/.490 slash line against lefties this season and should be in there against Fried on Wednesday.
Schneider is too much of an all-or-nothing hitter, with lots of pop and lots of whiffs in his profile. But he’s in a rhythm right now, and I know he’s at his best against southpaws.
Since June 30, Schneider is 10-for-34 (.294) with a 1.106 OPS. He’s 7-5 vs. this prop in 12 starts over that span.
Fried under 4.5 Ks (-143): This will be Fried’s third outing against Toronto this season, and that amount of familiarity should work in the Blue Jays’ favour.
But also, the Jays are a tough bunch for any pitcher to fool.
- Toronto has the lowest overall strikeout rate in MLB (17.4%), as well as the lowest against LHPs (18.0%).
- Fried has five Ks combined in two starts vs. Toronto this year (12.0 innings).
- In 80 combined plate appearances vs. the Jays’ active lineup, Fried has just 11 strikeouts (13.8 K%).
Fried works deep enough into games to cash this bet more often than not, but Toronto is as tough of a matchup as he could have.
Blue Jays picks made at 9:39 a.m. ET on 07/23/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.