It’s an all-pitcher edition of MLB prop bets on Wednesday.
Today’s MLB props narrative: In the afternoon slate, Tyler Glasnow looks to overpower the Minnesota Twins as he has in the past. And later on, both Jesus Luzardo and Slade Cecconi have compelling opportunities to shine on the mound.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 23.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Glasnow over 6.5 strikeouts (-143)
Glasnow has made mincemeat of the Twins in the past, and I think except more of the same tonight.
Minnesota is actually a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of strikeout rate, with the 16th-highest K% in MLB (22.1%).
But in 52 career plate appearances vs. Glasnow, the Twins’ active roster has looked a lot more lost than that:
- 26 Ks (50.0 K%)
- 40.2% whiff rate
- 7-for-51 (.137 BA)
- .196 SLG
A 50.0% strikeout rate is absurd. And unsustainable. But a sample size of 52 plate appearances isn’t nothing.
Glasnow’s primary strikeout weapon is his curveball. Opponents are 2-for-25 (.080) with 13 Ks against that offering this year. Oh, and the Twins have struggled mightily against that pitch type this year.
Minnesota has the third-highest whiff rate against curveballs from right-handed pitchers (36.9%), per Baseball Savant.
Glasnow will be making his third start since returning from the 60-day injured list with a shoulder issue. He’s built up enough to mow the Twins down.
Key stat: In his lone start against the Twins last season, Glasnow struck out 14 batters over 7.0 scoreless innings — and he only needed 88 pitches to do so.
Best MLB picks
Luzardo over 6.5 Ks (-125): Luzardo has enjoyed a solid bounce-back year with some impressive swing-and-miss stuff.
The left-hander ranks in the 78th percentile or better in chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate.
He’s got a 10.7 K/9 this year, which is eighth among 59 qualified pitchers.
Over his past five starts, Luzardo is 4-1 vs. this prop. In the outlier, he was chased after just 2.0 innings … but he still had four Ks in that game.
Boston has the 12th-highest K% vs. LHPs (24.0%).
Cecconi over 17.5 outs (-112): In a rare 1-for-1 trade that is working out for both sides, Cecconi came over to the Guardians this past winter in a swap that sent Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks.
Cecconi, a first-round pick in 2020, has a 3.84 ERA through 11 starts. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but his command is solid and he knows how to eat innings.
- He’s averaging 17.3 outs per start and is coming off a career-high 8.1 IP.
- He’s 3-0 vs. this prop in July and has pitched into the sixth or deeper in eight of 11 games.
On Wednesday, Cecconi will face an Orioles squad that is scraping for offence right now. Over the past two weeks, Baltimore ranks 27th in wRC+ (79) and 30th in on-base percentage (.277).
MLB prop picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET on 07/23/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.