Jordan Horrobin

The MLB-leading Toronto Blue Jays are a runaway freight train right now, and they’ll look to polish off a four-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers on Sunday afternoon.

The pregame narrative: Detroit is a slight favourite in a matchup between Max Scherzer and Jack Flaherty, despite the Tigers’ 1-8 record since the all-star break. Toronto is 8-1 in the same span and has outscored Detroit by 16 runs in this series.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Tigers for July 27, featuring props on Scherzer and Bo Bichette.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Tigers

Best bet: Scherzer under 15.5 outs (-120)

Sunday is a big day for Scherzer, who’ll celebrate his birthday pitching at Comerica Park (formerly his home field for a Cy Young-winning season).

But do I think John Schneider and the Jays will gift the 41-year-old with an outsized workload? Definitely not.

• Scherzer has thrown 28.0 innings over six starts this year, only once collecting more than 15 outs.

• His pitch count hasn’t exceeded 90 in any outing this year.

• Scherzer missed close to three months with a thumb injury. That issue has flared up at times since his return and poses an unpredictable risk factor in any given start.

The primary concern that I have with this pick is that Scherzer is facing an absolutely ice-cold lineup. He might be able to work deep simply if the Tigers can’t drum up any offence.

Since the all-star break, the Tigers have a .181/.239/.271 slash line as a team. All three of those marks are dead last in MLB.

But again, Scherzer isn’t counted on to be an innings eater at this point in his career. And the Blue Jays’ bullpen is sufficiently rested.

Seven of Toronto’s relievers have pitched either once or not at all in the past three days. That includes closer Jeff Hoffman, who really should get in there after four days off.

Key stat: Scherzer is averaging 14.0 outs per start through six games this year. He has gone under 15.5 outs in five of those six starts.

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Quick pick

Blue Jays moneyline (+102): Fading Scherzer’s outs total doesn’t mean I want to fade the Jays as a collective.

And how could I? These teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum since the all-star break.

While the Tigers rank 30th in wRC+ (43), the Blue Jays are at the top of the league (146 wRC+).

Toronto is 8-1 in that span against three playoff-calibre teams: the Giants, Yankees and Tigers.

Now they’ll face a scuffling Jack Flaherty, who has a 7.79 ERA over his past seven starts. Detroit is just 1-6 in those games. And since the ASG, the Tigers are 1-8 in games against the Rangers, Pirates and Jays.

Bichette over 0.5 RBI (+143): While the Blue Jays’ offence has been rolling, Bichette is consistently finding himself in situations to drive in runners.

Over his past 16 games, Bichette is 8-8 vs. this prop with 13 RBI. He has five multi-RBI performances in his past seven games overall.

Looking at that 16-game stretch dating back to July 6, Bichette is second in MLB in plate appearances with runners on (42) and with runners in scoring position (26).

Bichette’s .364/.462/.682 slash line with RISP in that span is ultra clutch. No wonder the Jays have cemented him as their cleanup hitter.

In his career against Flaherty, Bichette is 4-for-10 with a double.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 07/27/2025.

The San Francisco Giants and New York Mets square off Friday night for the first of six games over a 10-day stretch.

The pregame narrative: New York enters Oracle Park on a four-game win streak but is an underdog against Logan Webb and the Giants. San Francisco’s offence has been clicking lately as the team looks to get back into a wild-card spot.

Check out my Mets vs. Giants predictions, featuring Willy Adames and Pete Alonso.

Mets vs. Giants predictions

Parlay: Adames over 1.5 bases | Alonso under 1.5 bases | Over 6.5 runs (+400)

Adames over 1.5 total bases (+130): With the type of power Adames has flashed this month, I’m hoping he’ll cash this bet on one swing.

Adames has 12 extra-base hits in 18 games this month, and he’s slugging .697.

He also has a .318 BA in July and a .317 xBA, per Baseball Savant, so this doesn’t seem particularly fluky.

And that’s great news for Giants fans, who’ve seen a rather feeble version of Adames for most of his first season in the Bay Area.

Entering July, Adames had a .210/.297/.339 slash line. Here’s hoping this midseason run leads to more success.

Adames doubled off New York’s Clay Holmes in their only previous matchup.

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MLB SGP legs

Alonso under 1.5 total bases (-205): For as strong of a month as Adames has had, Alonso has been on the opposite end of the spectrum.

Entering July, Alonso had a .541 SLG and was averaging 2.04 bases per game.

But so far this month, he has just a .403 SLG while averaging 1.39 bases.

Do I think this dip represents a new normal for Alonso? No, but I don’t see him snapping out of the slump tonight with Webb on the mound.

Alonso is 2-for-16 (.125) with six strikeouts in his career against Webb. In six plate appearances vs. Webb last season, he scratched out one single.

Alonso has gone under 1.5 bases in nine of his past 11 games.

Over 6.5 runs (-195): Neither of tonight’s starting pitchers has been on his A-game lately.

• Though I think Webb can keep Alonso down, he has been gettable in recent outings. He has a 5.04 ERA in his past five starts, and the average run total in those games was 10.4.

• As for Holmes, he has a 5.04 ERA in his past six starts, and the average total in those games was 8.7.

Offensively, the Mets have been a strong group throughout the season and the Giants have heated up recently.

New York ranks sixth in season-long wRC+ (109). San Francisco, meanwhile, has a 109 wRC+ over the past two weeks (ninth in MLB in that span).

Mets vs. Giants predictions made at 2:20 p.m. ET on 07/25/2025.

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Let’s make it three days in a row where at least one of our staff’s MLB home run picks comes through.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Last night, Manny Machado cashed a +480 HR pick for me in St. Louis. On Friday night, both Jo Adell and Cody Bellinger look like promising options — but for varying reasons.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 25.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Adell to hit a home run (+420)

Adell is ice cold right now. There’s no way to sugarcoat that.

Over his past 11 games, the outfielder is batting .156 with 18 strikeouts and two home runs.

Adell swings really hard (99th-percentile bat speed, per Baseball Savant), and he misses a lot. But when he runs into one, it goes a mile.

He ranks in the 85th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. The standout metric is his .574 xSLG, which ranks in the 97th percentile.

For a home run prop, you just need the stars to align on one pitch in one at-bat. Adell has the tools to put that together.

I also like the fact that tonight’s matchup against the Mariners will take place at Angel Stadium, which is the fourth-friendliest HR park for right-hitting players.

There are 18% more homers than average for RHHs in Anaheim.

Seattle’s Bryan Woo will be on the mound tonight, and his 94th-percentile walk rate heightens the chances of Adell putting something in play.

Also, Adell is 3-for-3 in his career vs. Woo with two home runs.

Key stat: Adell is tied for 17th in MLB with 21 homers, which is already a career-high total.

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Best HR predictions

Bellinger to hit a home run (+390): Bellinger is enjoying a banner month, and I’m hoping to cash in.

Aaron Judge was the first Yankee I looked at tonight, naturally, but his +170 HR price didn’t speak to me the way Bellinger’s price does.

Not that I’d compare the two as home run hitters, but Bellinger has put on quite a power display recently. He has a .347/.356/.667 slash line in July, homering five times in his past eight games.

Bellinger does his best work at Yankee Stadium, where left-handed batters hit 23% more home runs than average.

The first-year Yankee is slugging .579 at home, and that’s where he’s hit 12 of his 18 HRs.

Bellinger doesn’t have the best numbers against Phillies starter Taijuan Walker (6-for-22, .409 SLG). But he has homered once in this matchup, and the volume of at-bats is solid.

MLB home run picks made at 10:49 a.m. ET on 07/25/2025.

Now sitting alone in the No. 1 spot in the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays continue their four-game set against the Detroit Tigers on Friday evening.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence exploded in an 11-4 win on Thursday night, featuring a double and run from George Springer. I’m targeting Springer tonight as he looks to finish strong in what has been a superb month of production.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Tigers for July 25, featuring Zach McKinstry.

Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers

Best bet: Springer over 0.5 runs (-117)

The party hasn’t stopped for Springer, who’s been a wrecking ball throughout July.

In 19 games this month, Springer has a .352/.439/.648 slash line and 19 runs scored. He also has more walks (11) than strikeouts (10).

Strikeouts were an issue for Springer earlier this season, but he has really scaled that back:

• March/April/May: 23.6 K%
• June/July: 12.8 K%

Last year, Springer posted a 91 OPS+ — the first below-average mark of his career. There was some justifiable concern that the mid-30s outfielder would limp through the final two years of his deal without providing a ton of value.

Well, forget about that.

Springer is clearly seeing the ball exceptionally well right now, and his .377 OBP is his highest since 2019 (when he finished a career-best seventh in MVP voting).

As a bonus, Detroit right-hander Keider Montero primarily throws sinkers to right-handed batters, and that’s what Springer excels against most.

Springer is 24-for-55 (.436) with a .636 SLG against sinkers from RHPs.

Key stat: Springer has cashed this bet in 12 of 17 starts this month, including each of his past five.

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Quick pick

McKinstry under 0.5 hits (+135): McKinstry will have the platoon advantage against Berrios tonight, but he’s in enough of a slump right now that I think there’s some value in this prop market.

The all-star infielder is hitless in eight of his past 16 starts. He’s 9-for-51 (.176) in that span.

McKinstry has done well this season to put the barrel on the ball — posting a 100th-percentile launch angle sweet spot rate — but he rarely makes hard contact and relies more on placement than power.

Look at how he ranks in some key batted ball metrics at Baseball Savant:

• 6th-percentile average exit velocity
• 15th-percentile hard-hit rate
• 27th-percentile xSLG

McKinstry is hitless in five of his past seven games, and I like this price to bet on another quiet outing at the plate.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:36 a.m. ET on 07/25/2025.

My colleague Avery Perri cashed both his MLB home run picks yesterday (Bryce Harper, Junior Caminero), so I have big shoes to fill.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Cal Raleigh is MLB’s home run leader, and that has a lot to do with how much he’s punishing lefty pitchers. Elsewhere, Manny Machado is swinging a white-hot bat and deserves a look at much longer odds.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 24.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Raleigh to hit a home run (+230)

Raleigh is a home run machine, which makes this fairly modest price palatable to me.

The MLB Home Run Derby champ has 39 homers, which is two clear of the field. He clubbed his latest HR on Tuesday night before taking a rest day on Wednesday.

Tonight’s matchup has some good and bad news for Raleigh.

The bad news is that Yusei Kikuchi (4-6, 3.13 ERA) is having an excellent year for the Angels. The lefty’s 1.1 HR/9 is the lowest of his six seasons with 20-plus starts.

The good news is that Kikuchi still seems fairly homer-prone, allowing a 28.0% fly ball rate and a 91.3 mph average exit velocity.

That FB% is above league average (23.9%), and that average exit velo ranks in the sixth percentile.

Also, according to Baseball Savant, Angel Stadium is the fourth-friendliest HR park for right-hitting players. There are 19% more homers than average for RHHs in Anaheim.

Raleigh hits well from both sides of the plate, but he’s particularly destructive vs. southpaws.

And with 13 homers in his past 29 games, there’s a solid chance he goes yard tonight.

Key stat: Raleigh is slugging .807 vs. LHPs this year, with 16 home runs in just 117 plate appearances.

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Best HR predictions

Machado to hit a home run (+480): The Fourth of July is known for its fireworks south of the border, and that also happens to be the time when Machado really started popping off at the plate.

From July 4 onward, Machado has a .557 SLG and five home runs in 16 games.

And really, the damage could’ve been a lot more explosive.

Baseball Savant has Machado at a .685 xSLG in that span. His 64.6% hard-hit rate in that time is better than any player’s season-long mark.

All of this is to say, Machado is destroying the baseball. St. Louis’ Busch Stadium isn’t a HR-friendly park, but that’s fine.

Machado is 11-for-32 (.344) with two home runs and a .594 SLG vs. Cardinals starter Sonny Gray.

MLB home run picks made at 11:49 a.m. ET on 07/24/2025.

The top spot in the American League hangs in the balance as the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers embark on a four-game set at Comerica Park.

The pregame narrative: Entering Thursday, the Blue Jays are 0.5 games ahead of the Tigers atop the AL standings. Detroit is 1-9 in its past 10 games, while Toronto is 14-4 so far this month. Still, the Tigers are slight home favourites tonight.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Tigers for July 24, featuring Eric Lauer and Gleyber Torres.

Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers

Best Bet: Lauer over 4.5 Ks (-134)

Detroit is typically a force to be reckoned with when there’s a lefty on the mound. On the season, the Tigers are fifth in wRC+ vs. southpaws (112).

But lately, the Tigers have been ice-cold at the plate. The past two weeks have been … bleak:

• 30th in wRC+ (68)
• 30th in SLG (.306)
• 29th in BA (.206)
• 27th in K% (27.2%)

Detroit’s recent woes lessen the risk of Lauer getting roughed up, which then heightens the probability of him working fairly deep into the game.

But does he even need to go deep to cash this line? I’d say no.

Lauer paces the Jays’ rotation in K/9 (9.6), averaging more than a strikeout per inning. He also has 12 Ks in just 36 plate appearances vs. the Tigers’ active lineup, which equates to a hearty 33.3 K%.

For as imposing as the Tigers have been against left-handers this year, they still sit right around league average in strikeout rate (22.6%, compared to 22.9% for all MLB teams).

Lauer is 5-1 vs. this prop in his past six games, averaging 6.2 Ks per outing in that span.

Key stat: Lauer had five Ks over just 3.0 innings against the Tigers on May 17. That was his first start of the year, which explains why it was cut short.

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Quick pick

Torres over 1.5 total bases (+108): For as woeful as Detroit’s lineup has been lately, I still have faith in Torres to come through when a lefty is on the hill.

The all-star infielder has a .295/.412/.513 slash line against LHPs this year. His 159 wRC+ is better than that of sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Jose Ramirez and Seiya Suzuki.

Torres notched a double off Lauer when they matched up in May. He’s 11-13 vs. this prop in his past 24 games, with an .814 OPS in that span.

Also, Torres has a 94th-percentile xBA (.296) and a 90th-percentile strike rate (13.2%), per Baseball Savant.

Blue Jays picks were made at 9:46 a.m. ET on 07/24/2025.