The San Francisco Giants and New York Mets square off Friday night for the first of six games over a 10-day stretch.
The pregame narrative: New York enters Oracle Park on a four-game win streak but is an underdog against Logan Webb and the Giants. San Francisco’s offence has been clicking lately as the team looks to get back into a wild-card spot.
Check out my Mets vs. Giants predictions, featuring Willy Adames and Pete Alonso.
Mets vs. Giants predictions
Parlay: Adames over 1.5 bases | Alonso under 1.5 bases | Over 6.5 runs (+400)
Adames over 1.5 total bases (+130): With the type of power Adames has flashed this month, I’m hoping he’ll cash this bet on one swing.
Adames has 12 extra-base hits in 18 games this month, and he’s slugging .697.
He also has a .318 BA in July and a .317 xBA, per Baseball Savant, so this doesn’t seem particularly fluky.
And that’s great news for Giants fans, who’ve seen a rather feeble version of Adames for most of his first season in the Bay Area.
Entering July, Adames had a .210/.297/.339 slash line. Here’s hoping this midseason run leads to more success.
Adames doubled off New York’s Clay Holmes in their only previous matchup.
MLB SGP legs
Alonso under 1.5 total bases (-205): For as strong of a month as Adames has had, Alonso has been on the opposite end of the spectrum.
Entering July, Alonso had a .541 SLG and was averaging 2.04 bases per game.
But so far this month, he has just a .403 SLG while averaging 1.39 bases.
Do I think this dip represents a new normal for Alonso? No, but I don’t see him snapping out of the slump tonight with Webb on the mound.
Alonso is 2-for-16 (.125) with six strikeouts in his career against Webb. In six plate appearances vs. Webb last season, he scratched out one single.
Alonso has gone under 1.5 bases in nine of his past 11 games.
Over 6.5 runs (-195): Neither of tonight’s starting pitchers has been on his A-game lately.
- Though I think Webb can keep Alonso down, he has been gettable in recent outings. He has a 5.04 ERA in his past five starts, and the average run total in those games was 10.4.
- As for Holmes, he has a 5.04 ERA in his past six starts, and the average total in those games was 8.7.
Offensively, the Mets have been a strong group throughout the season and the Giants have heated up recently.
New York ranks sixth in season-long wRC+ (109). San Francisco, meanwhile, has a 109 wRC+ over the past two weeks (ninth in MLB in that span).
Mets vs. Giants predictions made at 2:20 p.m. ET on 07/25/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.