The top spot in the American League hangs in the balance as the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers embark on a four-game set at Comerica Park.
The pregame narrative: Entering Thursday, the Blue Jays are 0.5 games ahead of the Tigers atop the AL standings. Detroit is 1-9 in its past 10 games, while Toronto is 14-4 so far this month. Still, the Tigers are slight home favourites tonight.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Tigers for July 24, featuring Eric Lauer and Gleyber Torres.
Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers
Best Bet: Lauer over 4.5 Ks (-134)
Detroit is typically a force to be reckoned with when there’s a lefty on the mound. On the season, the Tigers are fifth in wRC+ vs. southpaws (112).
But lately, the Tigers have been ice-cold at the plate. The past two weeks have been … bleak:
- 30th in wRC+ (68)
- 30th in SLG (.306)
- 29th in BA (.206)
- 27th in K% (27.2%)
Detroit’s recent woes lessen the risk of Lauer getting roughed up, which then heightens the probability of him working fairly deep into the game.
But does he even need to go deep to cash this line? I’d say no.
Lauer paces the Jays’ rotation in K/9 (9.6), averaging more than a strikeout per inning. He also has 12 Ks in just 36 plate appearances vs. the Tigers’ active lineup, which equates to a hearty 33.3 K%.
For as imposing as the Tigers have been against left-handers this year, they still sit right around league average in strikeout rate (22.6%, compared to 22.9% for all MLB teams).
Lauer is 5-1 vs. this prop in his past six games, averaging 6.2 Ks per outing in that span.
Key stat: Lauer had five Ks over just 3.0 innings against the Tigers on May 17. That was his first start of the year, which explains why it was cut short.
Quick pick
Torres over 1.5 total bases (+108): For as woeful as Detroit’s lineup has been lately, I still have faith in Torres to come through when a lefty is on the hill.
The all-star infielder has a .295/.412/.513 slash line against LHPs this year. His 159 wRC+ is better than that of sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Jose Ramirez and Seiya Suzuki.
Torres notched a double off Lauer when they matched up in May. He’s 11-13 vs. this prop in his past 24 games, with an .814 OPS in that span.
Also, Torres has a 94th-percentile xBA (.296) and a 90th-percentile strike rate (13.2%), per Baseball Savant.
Blue Jays picks were made at 9:46 a.m. ET on 07/24/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.