Jordan Horrobin

In order to avoid a four-game sweep, the Toronto Blue Jays will need to win Wednesday’s matinee against the Baltimore Orioles.

The pregame narrative: It’s an early start (12:35 p.m. ET), but there’s no need to skimp on picks with plenty of offensive potential in this matchup. Adley Rutschman looks to build on some post-injured-list success against a familiar foe, while Nathan Lukes draws a matchup that fits his hitter profile nicely.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Orioles for July 30.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Orioles

Best bet: Rutschman over 1.5 total bases (+132)

Much like the team he plays for, Rutschman’s 2025 season has largely been a flop. But there are signs that the two-time all-star is turning a corner.

Rutschman was barely scraping above the Mendoza Line through May, with a .203 average and a .632 OPS.

But in June, he posted an .890 OPS over 15 games to flash a glimmer of hope for a turnaround. Then he suffered an oblique injury, which put him on the shelf for more than a month.

He returned this series, much to the chagrin of the Blue Jays, and has picked up right where he left off:

• 4-for-9
• 3 doubles
• 3 RBI
• 2-0 vs. his bases prop

Rutschman posted elite walk rates in his first two seasons, but he’s scaled that back while maintaining a sky-high contact rate. Now batting in the cleanup spot for the O’s, pitchers will be forced to work in the zone against him if there are runners on base.

And that’s probably the last thing Jose Berrios wants to do, given their history.

Rutschman is 15-for-28 (.536) with four home runs and two doubles vs. Berrios. The switch-hitting catcher only has two walks and two strikeouts in that hearty sample size.

With his stock on the rise, Rutschman is worth backing in a matchup he’s excelled in many times before.

Key stat: Rutschman is 10-7 vs. this prop since the start of June, averaging 2.1 bases per game in that span.

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Quick pick

Orioles over 4.5 runs (-125): The best offence since the all-star break, by wRC+, belongs to the Blue Jays (139).

But the O’s are right behind them (137 wRC+), and you could say they’ve been the more productive outfit.

• 1st in SLG (.518)
• 1st in runs/game (6.2)
• 2nd in ISO (.233)
• 2nd in BA (.285)

Rutschman isn’t the only Baltimore hitter who tends to turn up the heat on Berrios.

As a lineup, the O’s have a .305 BA and a .547 SLG in 190 at-bats against the right-hander. That’s a massive sample for a squad to have against one pitcher.

This will be Berrios’ third start vs. Baltimore in 2025. The O’s cashed this bet in the first two, scored 10 runs off 16 hits in 10.0 innings against him.

Lukes over 0.5 runs (-130): Lukes had a rough doubleheader yesterday, going 0-for-9 with a walk.

But in a game that should feature plenty of offence — the projected total is 10 runs — I think this is a fair price to back Toronto’s leadoff man.

The left-hitting Lukes has the platoon advantage against the right-handed Dean Kremer, which is a nice place to start:

• Lukes vs. RHPs: .783 OPS (compared to a .553 OPS vs. LHPs)

• Kremer vs. LHHs: .758 OPS (compared to .682 OPS vs. RHHs)

Also, Kremer’s pitch arsenal aligns nicely with what Lukes loves to mash.

According to Baseball Savant, Kremer throws a combination of four-seam fastballs, curveballs and splitters roughly 80% of the time to left-hitting players.

Against that pitch mix from righties, Lukes has a .296/.358/.463 slash line (.821 OPS).

Prior to Tuesday’s dud doubleheader, Lukes had scored in five straight games.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:33 a.m. ET on 07/30/2025.

Two late-night matchups feature some MLB home run picks I’m keen on for Monday.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Adolis Garcia and Randy Arozarena are both playing on the West Coast tonight, and there are reasons to expect them to mash. With Garcia in particular, the pitching matchup really fits a profile that he tends to do damage against.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 28, including analysis on Miami’s Kyle Stowers.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Garcia to hit a home run (+410)

We may never see Garcia replicate his 39-homer season from 2023, but he’s still quite capable of demolishing the ball.

• Garcia, who’s on a 21-homer pace this year, ranks in the 91st percentile in average exit velocity (92.6 mph), per Baseball Savant.

• He’s also in the 81st percentile in barrel rate (13.1%) and the 77th percentile in hard-hit rate (48.2%).

The outfielder’s main issue is striking out. He’s in the bottom-10th percentile in chase and whiff rates, leading to a 26.0% K rate (30th-highest among 155 qualified hitters).

On the bright side, tonight’s opposing starter, Jack Kochanowicz, hardly strikes anyone out. His 15.6 K% ranks in the sixth percentile among pitchers.

Kochanowicz makes his hay with ground balls. Interestingly enough, his 90th-percentile ground ball rate (53.6%) is almost identical to his sinker usage vs. right-hitting players (53.7%).

With a greatly reduced threat of striking out, I think Garcia is a great fit to do damage in this matchup.

After all, he’s crushing sinkers from righty pitchers this year: 17-for-51 (.333) with four HRs and an .828 xSLG.

Key stat: Garcia is 3-for-6 with two home runs vs. Kochanowicz.

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Best HR predictions

Arozarena to hit a home run (+295): Against a lefty in a homer-friendly park is exactly the time to back Arozarena to go deep.

He’s also on fire right now, so that helps, too.

• The outfielder is slugging .547 vs. lefties this year (and .524 in his career).

• In his past 25 games, he has a .287/.358/.702 slash line with 12 HRs

• Tonight’s Mariners vs. A’s game will take place at Sutter Health Park is the No. 2 scoring environment and the No. 8 HR environment, per Baseball Savant’s park factors.

A’s southpaw JP Sears has allowed 13 homers in just 43.1 innings this year, which would be a 54-homer pace extrapolated over 180.0 innings.

For context, no pitcher allowed more than 34 homers over last year’s full campaign.

Stowers to hit a home run (+540): At this price, count me in on one of July’s hottest hitters.

Stowers is second in MLB this month with a 250 wRC+, and he’s tied for third in HRs (10). It’s been a laser show for the 27-year-old.

Though he never found his footing with the Orioles, Stowers is now showing why he was once a second-round draftee back in 2019.

The Miami outfielder ranks in the 97th percentile in xSLG (.575), which is only two points north of his actual mark.

He’ll have a platoon advantage against St. Louis righty Andre Pallante, too. Stowers has a .627 SLG vs. RHPs this season.

MLB home run picks made at 1:27 p.m. ET on 07/28/2025.

Coming off a three-city road trip, the San Diego Padres are back home to face the red-hot New York Mets on Monday night.

The pregame narrative: This could be Dylan Cease‘s final start for the Padres, as the trade deadline looms on Thursday. He’ll add to his trade value if he can quiet the Mets, who’ve won seven in a row.

Check out my Mets vs. Giants predictions, featuring Cease and Brandon Nimmo.

Mets vs. Padres predictions

Parlay: Cease over 6.5 Ks | Nimmo over 0.5 hits | Over 6.5 runs (+325)

Cease over 6.5 strikeouts (-125): Cease has been prone to some blowup outings this year, but his swing-and-miss stuff rarely wavers.

• 7th in MLB in strikeouts (144)
• 6.9 K per start
• 6+ Ks in 16 of 21 games
• 7+ Ks in 11 of 21 games

According to Baseball Savant, Cease ranks in the 94th percentile in whiff rate (33.9%) and the 87th percentile for chase rate (31.9%).

Lots of hitters guess against Cease. And they often guess incorrectly.

Last season, Cease had 12 Ks over 10.0 innings vs. the Mets. He also owns a 29.2% K rate against the active lineup.

San Diego knows that this is a showcase for one of its most viable trade chips. If Cease is in a groove, don’t expect the Padres to muzzle him.

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MLB SGP legs

Nimmo over 0.5 hits (-195): On a big-market team with some big-name stars, Nimmo doesn’t always get a fair share of the limelight.

But the outfielder is motoring right along this season with a .261/.325/.462 slash line (123 wRC+). It’s the eighth time in nine full seasons that he has a wRC+ of 115 or above.

This year, Nimmo found a new gear at the start of June and hasn’t taken his foot off the gas.

In 47 starts since June 1, he has a .293/.361/.511 slash line (148 wRC+). Nimmo is 38-9 vs. this prop in that span.

Also, Nimmo is 3-for-6 off Cease, cashing this bet in both of last season’s head-to-head matchups.

Over 6.5 runs (-240): I think Cease would be a nice add for some title-hopeful teams (Blue Jays included), but he’s had some bumps in the road that make this alt total worth a look.

• Both of Cease’s starts vs. the Mets last season finished with 11+ total runs. He allowed 10 runs over 10.0 innings in those games.

• The Mets’ active roster has a .574 SLG vs. Cease in 61 at-bats.

• The average game total of Cease’s past eight starts is 8.3 runs.

Since the all-star break, the Padres and Mets rank 11th and 13th, respectively, in wRC+. On the season, the Mets are seventh in team SLG (.414).

I could see the Padres putting up a decent total, too, with Frankie Montas starting for New York.

Montas has an unsightly .289 xBA through five starts this year, and three of those five outings finished with 11+ total runs.

Mets vs. Padres predictions made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 07/28/2025.

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Fresh off another series win, the Toronto Blue Jays head to Baltimore to begin a four-game set against the Orioles.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s 8-2 start to the second half has vaulted the team to the top of the MLB standings. Baltimore, meanwhile, is far closer to the league basement than anyone could’ve expected. But the O’s offence is coming around, and Monday’s 9.5-run projected total reflects that.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Orioles for July 28, featuring props on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ryan O’Hearn.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Orioles

Best bet: Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-120)

Remember Guerrero’s second-half power surge from last season? Well, it’s happening again.

Entering the all-star break in 2024, Guerrero had an .818 OPS before exploding for an 1.127 OPS down the stretch.

The franchise player also entered this year’s break with an .818 OPS … and he’s posted an 1.175 OPS in 10 games since.

It’s a tiny sample, but we did just see this story unfold last year. Also, Guerrero ranks in the 100th percentile in expected batting average (.319), per Baseball Savant, so it’s not like he’s fluked his way into being an elite hitter.

With that 100th-percentile xBA comes a 93rd-percentile walk rate (13.5%). I’m never sure exactly how Guerrero is going to get on base, but he often finds a way.

And as long as he gets on base, he’ll be a threat to score. Especially with how the Blue Jays’ lineup has been humming since the all-star break:

• 1st in wRC+ (142)
• 1st in BA (.307)
• 1st in K% (14.3%)
• 3rd in runs/game (6.1)

Tonight, Toronto will face Baltimore starter Zach Eflin, who has a 7.76 ERA in six starts since the beginning of June.

Elfin also has a 5.22 ERA in five outings vs. Toronto since the start of last year.

Key stat: Guerrero has scored 11 runs in his past eight games, going 7-1 vs. this prop in that span. He reached base at least twice in each of those games, too.

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Quick pick

Over 9.5 runs (-108): The Jays have had MLB’s best offence coming out of the break, but the O’s aren’t too far behind.

In 10 second-half games, Baltimore ranks ninth in wRC+ (111) while averaging the sixth-most runs (5.1/game).

Through six matchups this season, the average total in this head-to-head matchup is 10.7 runs (and this over is 4-2 in those games).

Also, Eflin isn’t the only starter in this game with a checkered past against his opposing lineup.

Bassitt has made five starts vs. Baltimore since joining the Jays in 2023, and he has a 6.92 ERA against them. The current O’s lineup has a .515 SLG vs. Bassitt in 97 at-bats.

O’Hearn over 1.5 total bases (+135): O’Hearn fares well against right-handed pitching, and he knows a thing or two about how to attack Bassitt.

The first baseman is 7-for-13 vs. Bassitt with a home run and a double. He reached base in all three plate appearances against Bassitt when Toronto faced Baltimore on March 30 (single, double, walk).

Bassitt’s opponent SLG is notably higher vs. left-hitting players (.468) compared to right-hitting players (.362).

O’Hearn is deployed almost exclusively with a platoon advantage, and it makes sense. He has a .586 OPS vs. LHPs and an .875 OPS vs. RHPs.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 07/28/2025.

Eyeing a series win, the Seattle Mariners turn to Logan Gilbert on Sunday afternoon in a road matchup against the Los Angeles Angels.

The latest: Gilbert was dominant against the Angels in a pair of starts last season and will look to help the Mariners take three of four in L.A. On the other side, Taylor Ward has been swinging a hot bat since late June and should be a threat to make noise at the plate.

Check out my Mariners vs. Angels predictions in the form of a +330 same-game parlay.

Mariners vs. Angels predictions

Parlay: Gilbert over 6.5 Ks | Over 7.5 runs | Ward over 0.5 hits (+330)

Gilbert over 6.5 strikeouts (-167): Gilbert is having another superb season, fueled in large part by his elite strikeout stuff.

• 98th-percentile K rate (36.3%)
• 96th-percentile whiff rate (35.1%)
• 13.1 K/9

Gilbert has missed some time and is therefore not a qualified pitcher. Otherwise, his 13.1 K/9 would lead the majors.

In 13 starts this year, Gilbert has cashed this bet 10 times — including four of his past five.

Also, he went 2-0 vs. this prop against the Angels last season, totalling 17 Ks in those matchups. And L.A. continues to be an A+ matchup for pitchers, posting the second-highest strikeout rate in MLB this year (25.8%).

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MLB SGP legs

Over 7.5 runs (-190): Though I expect Gilbert to carve up the Halos, he is susceptible to allowing some damage when he’s not working in Seattle’s pitcher-friendly park.

On the road this year, Gilbert has a 4.91 ERA and an .841 opponent OPS in five starts. All five of those games finished with at least 12 total runs.

Seattle has also put forth a surprisingly adept lineup this year, ranking fourth in wRC+ (112).

Overs are an MLB-best 57-43-5 (57.0%) in Mariners games, per Team Rankings.

I don’t expect a dominant outing from Angels starter Kyle Hendricks (5-7, 4.92 ERA). This over is 6-3 in his past nine starts, including a nine-run game when he faced the Mariners on June 6.

Ward over 0.5 hits (-150): This bet is hovering near straight wager territory for me — even with a lot of extra juice.

Yes, Gilbert is nasty. But Ward has seen him plenty of times, and the results are decent: 6-for-20 (.300), one HR, one double.

The power bat is still liable to rack up his share of strikeouts, but he’s been hitting for contact more than usual in recent weeks.

Over his past 25 games, Ward has a .309/.393/.577 slash line and has cashed this bet 20 times.

Mariners vs. Angels predictions made at 1:20 p.m. ET on 07/27/2025.

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On a Sunday loaded with early afternoon games, I’ve got three MLB prop bets from games starting before 2:30 p.m. ET.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Cody Bellinger has swung a powerful bat against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler in the past, and he’s got compelling value on his bases prop today amid a hot streak. Later on, Brandon Woodruff looks to close out July with one more dominant outing.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 27, also featuring Luis Arraez.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Woodruff over 6.5 strikeouts (+130)

Woodruff’s midseason return for the Brewers has been electric, bolstering the team’s division title hopes.

After a year and a half on the shelf due to shoulder/elbow issues, Woodruff made his 2025 season debut on July 6, dominating the Marlins in 6.0 innings of work (two hits, one run, eight Ks).

His two subsequent starts have been similarly stellar:

• July 12: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 10 Ks
• July 21: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 5 Ks

Now Woodruff will run it back against the Marlins, who admittedly aren’t a big strikeout team. They have the ninth-lowest K% in the majors (20.9%).

Woodruff doesn’t have much experience against this group, but he’s been utterly dominant in a small sample: 36 plate appearances, two hits (.059 BA), 12 strikeouts (33.3 K%).

Miami can deploy up to five left-hitting batters against the right-handed Woodruff today, but I say the more the merrier.

Woodruff’s best put-away pitch is his changeup to lefties, which has garnered a 53.8% whiff rate and a .400 opponent OPS dating back to the 2022 season (according to Baseball Savant).

Key stat: This year, the Marlins have the fifth-highest whiff rate vs. changeups from righties (32.6%).

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Best MLB picks

Bellinger over 1.5 total bases (+143): Wheeler is on the mound for the Phillies today, which means it’ll be an uphill battle for the Yankees’ offence.

But Bellinger is a guy who can break through, as he has against Wheeler in the past.

• Bellinger is 6-for-15 (.400) against Wheeler, and all six hits went for extra bases (five HRs, one double).

• Last year, while playing for the Cubs, Bellinger cashed this bet with a double in his lone game against Wheeler.

Also, Bellinger is blazing hot right now, slugging .700 in his past 21 games. He’s 13-8 vs. this prop in that span.

Arraez over 1.5 hits (+165): Arraez is one of the very few players I look at in the 1.5 hits market.

Why? Because he’s a three-time batting champ who rarely walks or strikes out. So there are always ample opportunities for hits to drop in.

Fuelled by MLB’s lowest strikeout rate, Arraez only walks or strikes out in 7.4% of his plate appearances.

He’s not on a batting-title-tear this season, but the high-contact infielder has enjoyed a solid little run lately. Over his past nine games, he’s batting .361 with four multi-hit performances.

Arraez will face St. Louis rookie Michael McGreevy, who has allowed 14 hits while striking out just two batters over his past two starts.

Left-hitting players — for which Arraez is one — have a .363 xBA against McGreevy this year.

MLB prop picks made at 11:29 a.m. ET on 07/27/2025.