Coming off a three-city road trip, the San Diego Padres are back home to face the red-hot New York Mets on Monday night.
The pregame narrative: This could be Dylan Cease‘s final start for the Padres, as the trade deadline looms on Thursday. He’ll add to his trade value if he can quiet the Mets, who’ve won seven in a row.
Check out my Mets vs. Giants predictions, featuring Cease and Brandon Nimmo.
Mets vs. Padres predictions
Parlay: Cease over 6.5 Ks | Nimmo over 0.5 hits | Over 6.5 runs (+325)
Cease over 6.5 strikeouts (-125): Cease has been prone to some blowup outings this year, but his swing-and-miss stuff rarely wavers.
- 7th in MLB in strikeouts (144)
- 6.9 K per start
- 6+ Ks in 16 of 21 games
- 7+ Ks in 11 of 21 games
According to Baseball Savant, Cease ranks in the 94th percentile in whiff rate (33.9%) and the 87th percentile for chase rate (31.9%).
Lots of hitters guess against Cease. And they often guess incorrectly.
Last season, Cease had 12 Ks over 10.0 innings vs. the Mets. He also owns a 29.2% K rate against the active lineup.
San Diego knows that this is a showcase for one of its most viable trade chips. If Cease is in a groove, don’t expect the Padres to muzzle him.
MLB SGP legs
Nimmo over 0.5 hits (-195): On a big-market team with some big-name stars, Nimmo doesn’t always get a fair share of the limelight.
But the outfielder is motoring right along this season with a .261/.325/.462 slash line (123 wRC+). It’s the eighth time in nine full seasons that he has a wRC+ of 115 or above.
This year, Nimmo found a new gear at the start of June and hasn’t taken his foot off the gas.
In 47 starts since June 1, he has a .293/.361/.511 slash line (148 wRC+). Nimmo is 38-9 vs. this prop in that span.
Also, Nimmo is 3-for-6 off Cease, cashing this bet in both of last season’s head-to-head matchups.
Over 6.5 runs (-240): I think Cease would be a nice add for some title-hopeful teams (Blue Jays included), but he’s had some bumps in the road that make this alt total worth a look.
- Both of Cease’s starts vs. the Mets last season finished with 11+ total runs. He allowed 10 runs over 10.0 innings in those games.
- The Mets’ active roster has a .574 SLG vs. Cease in 61 at-bats.
- The average game total of Cease’s past eight starts is 8.3 runs.
Since the all-star break, the Padres and Mets rank 11th and 13th, respectively, in wRC+. On the season, the Mets are seventh in team SLG (.414).
I could see the Padres putting up a decent total, too, with Frankie Montas starting for New York.
Montas has an unsightly .289 xBA through five starts this year, and three of those five outings finished with 11+ total runs.
Mets vs. Padres predictions made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 07/28/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.