Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

CFL Week 9 predictions, picks and best bets: Roughriders, Alouettes meet in potential Grey Cup preview

CFL Week 9 predictions

The top teams in the CFL’s East and West divisions meet on Saturday night to conclude the Week 9 slate.

This week’s CFL narrative: There are four CFL games on tap ahead of the Civic Holiday, headlined by the Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-1) visiting the Montreal Alouettes (5-2). The Hamilton Tiger-Cats, who are the other top squad in the East, are road favourites in Edmonton on Saturday afternoon.

Check out the latest CFL Week 9 predictions for the games beginning Thursday, July 31.

CFL Week 9 predictions

Best bet: Roughriders/Alouettes under 50 points (-110)

It’s still early, but this is shaping up as a potential Grey Cup preview with how Saskatchewan and Montreal are playing this season.

And it starts on the defensive side of the ball.

The Alouettes and Roughriders rank second and third, respectively, in scoring defence. Also, Montreal is No. 1 in total defence.

In the run game, these defences are as stout as it gets. Saskatchewan allows just 66.9 yards/game (first in the CFL), while Montreal allows 75.6 yards/game (second).

Led by A.J. Ouellette, the Riders love to establish their rushing attack. And Montreal might need to lean more heavily on that aspect without starting quarterback Davis Alexander.

I just don’t think either defence will allow for much breathing room.

Also, both teams have an impact wideout who is trending toward missing this week.

Neither Tyson Philpot (three TDs in five games for Montreal) nor Samuel Emilus (361 yards in four games for Saskatchewan) practiced on Tuesday or Wednesday.

These teams combined for just 36 total points when they matched up in Montreal last season.

Key stat: Montreal and Saskatchewan’s defences combine to allow 46.6 PPG.

Embed: #116469

Full CFL betting markets

CFL Week 9 best bets

Tiger-Cats -3.5 (-110): The scheduling gods aren’t working in Hamilton’s favour, as this will be the Ti-Cats’ fourth road game in a five-week span.

But Hamilton has risen to every challenge after an 0-2 start. Who knew a Week 3 bye could do a team so much good.

Since then, the Ti-Cats are 5-0 with a 10.6-point average victory margin. They’ve covered this number in four of five.

Edmonton is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the season. The Elks have failed to cover a +3.5 spread in four of six games.

Hamilton has the No. 1 scoring offence in the CFL, while Edmonton ranks eighth. The chasm between them is nearly 10.0 points per game.

Edmonton also has the ninth-ranked scoring defence. To me, the gap between these teams is more than 3.5 points.

Stampeders +3.5 (-110): Vernon Adams Jr. won’t play for Calgary on Thursday night, which helps explain why the Stamps are underdogs.

Still, I think there’s a lot to like about Calgary against an Ottawa Redblacks team that hasn’t proven anything.

Yes, Ottawa (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) did earn its lone win came in Calgary earlier this year. But that was in severe rain and wind that changed the complexion of the game (Ottawa won, 20-12, in a game that featured just one touchdown).

Calgary (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) has the CFL’s No. 1 scoring defence (19.1 PPG). Adams’ absence has nothing to do with that.

Look for the Stamps to at least keep things close with former NFLer P.J. Walker making his first CFL start. Surely, a full week of practice with the first team will do Walker some good.

CFL Week 9 predictions as of 1:30 p.m. on 07/31/2025.

MLB home run picks July 31: Look for De La Cruz to snap HR drought at home

MLB home run picks

Elly De La Cruz hasn’t homered in a while, but some factors are working in his favour on Thursday night.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: De La Cruz is still swinging a productive bat, and tonight he’ll be up against a pitcher that routinely gives up loud contact. Earlier in the day — i.e., before the trade deadline passes — Brandon Lowe is a worthy home run candidate in the Bronx.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 31.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: De La Cruz to hit a home run (+270)

De La Cruz is on a 29-game home run drought, but it’s not like he’s bottomed out offensively in that span.

The towering shortstop still has a respectable .804 OPS during the drought. For context, this season’s league-average OPS is .718.

I like tonight’s opportunity for De La Cruz, who has done his best work at home — and from the left side of the plate.

Though he’s a switch hitter, De La Cruz’s .303/.396/.534 slash line from the left is notably higher than the alternative (.241/.288/.380 from the right side).

At Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, De La Cruz is slugging .500. It helps knowing that GABP is the second-friendliest HR park for hitters on both sides of the plate, per Baseball Savant’s park factors.

The final aspect of this equation is the opposing starter, Carlos Carrasco. Well past his prime at this point, Carrasco has some brutal batted ball metrics:

  • 6th-percentile barrel rate
  • 7th-percentile xBA
  • 9th-percentile average exit velocity
  • 15th-percentile xERA

Left-hitting players are batting .354 with a .521 SLG off Carrasco’s two fastball offerings (four-seam, sinker). I’m hoping De La Cruz hunts a fastball and smashes one into the seats.

Key stat: Despite his HR drought, De La Cruz still leads the Reds in homers (18) and is on pace for a career-high 26 HRs.

Best HR predictions

Lowe to hit a home run (+350): Yankee Stadium, like GABP, is among the friendliest HR parks in the sport. That’s a good place to start.

It’s also worth noting that left-hitting players have torched New York starter Marcus Stroman this year.

In eight outings (84 at-bats), Stroman has allowed five HRs and a .560 SLG to LHHs.

Lowe is 4-for-16 with a home run off Stroman in the past. That’s nothing flashy, but at least he’s familiar in this matchup and has gone deep before.

Also, in his past 20 games overall, Lowe has homered six times while slugging .600. So he enters today’s matinee in encouraging form.

MLB home run picks made at 12:58 p.m. ET on 07/31/2025.

Braves vs. Reds SGP predictions July 31: Bet on Cincinnati to win, Profar to record a hit

Braves vs. Reds predictions

Ahead of this weekend’s unique matchup at Bristol Motor Speedway, the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds start their engines on a three-game series in Cincinnati on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: Cincinnati is firmly in the playoff hunt — and acting like it. The Reds are favoured to win tonight’s series opener against a downtrodden Braves squad that recently placed Ronald Acuna Jr. on the injured list.

Check out my Braves vs. Reds predictions, featuring Elly De La Cruz and Jurickson Profar.

Braves vs. Reds predictions

Parlay: Reds ML | De La Cruz over 1.5 bases | Profar over 0.5 hits (+300)

Reds moneyline (-162): Entering the final two months of the season, these teams are moving in distinctly different directions.

The Reds (57-52), who haven’t won a playoff game since 2012, have been modest deadline buyers. They’re three games out of a wild-card spot, so why not?

The Braves (45-62), who won their division in six of the previous seven years, could be one of the first teams mathematically eliminated weeks from now. Their entire Opening Day rotation is on the 60-day IL.

Cincinnati has simply been a much better team, and it has the much better starter on the mound Thursday.

Andrew Abbott is 8-1 with a 2.09 ERA for Cincy this season. He tossed 5.0 scoreless innings (with eight Ks) vs. the Braves back in May.

Atlanta’s Carlos Carrasco, meanwhile, has a 5.91 ERA in eight outings. The Braves are 1-4 in his past five starts.

Embed: #116451

MLB SGP legs

De La Cruz over 1.5 total bases (-114): I backed De La Cruz as my favourite home run pick on Thursday night … even though he hasn’t homered in 29 games.

Despite a bit of a power outage, De La Cruz has remained productive at the plate. In fact, his .804 OPS during the homerless streak is still well above league average (.716).

Dating back to June 21, the switch-hitting shortstop is 18-14 vs. this prop, averaging 1.9 bases per game.

He’s a far more fearsome hitter from the left side, with a .930 OPS this season.

The right-handed Carrasco has a seventh-percentile xBA (.290) and a sixth-percentile barrel rate (12.1%), per Baseball Savant. He gives up a ton of hard contact, and De La Cruz should follow suit.

Profar over 0.5 hits (-240): Profar’s all-star campaign last year looks like an anomaly, but the outfielder still plays at an all-star-calibre pace when a southpaw is on the mound.

Since 2023, Profar has a .292/.371/.482 slash line against left-handed pitching.

Abbott is having an excellent season, but one hit for Profar doesn’t seem like much of an ask when he has the platoon advantage.

Profar has cashed this bet in 13 of his past 17 games.

Braves vs. Reds predictions made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 07/31/2025.

MLB home run picks July 31: Look for De La Cruz to snap HR drought at home

MLB home run picks

Elly De La Cruz hasn’t homered in a while, but some factors are working in his favour on Thursday night.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: De La Cruz is still swinging a productive bat, and tonight he’ll be up against a pitcher that routinely gives up loud contact. Earlier in the day — i.e., before the trade deadline passes — Brandon Lowe is a worthy home run candidate in the Bronx.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 31.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: De La Cruz to hit a home run (+300)

De La Cruz is on a 29-game home run drought, but it’s not like he’s bottomed out offensively in that span.

The towering shortstop still has a respectable .804 OPS during the drought. For context, this season’s league-average OPS is .718.

I like tonight’s opportunity for De La Cruz, who has done his best work at home — and from the left side of the plate.

Though he’s a switch hitter, De La Cruz’s .303/.396/.534 slash line from the left is notably higher than the alternative (.241/.288/.380 from the right side).

At Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, De La Cruz is slugging .500. It helps knowing that GABP is the second-friendliest HR park for hitters on both sides of the plate, per Baseball Savant’s park factors.

The final aspect of this equation is the opposing starter, Carlos Carrasco. Well past his prime at this point, Carrasco has some brutal batted ball metrics:

  • 6th-percentile barrel rate
  • 7th-percentile xBA
  • 9th-percentile average exit velocity
  • 15th-percentile xERA

Left-hitting players are batting .354 with a .521 SLG off Carrasco’s two fastball offerings (four-seam, sinker). I’m hoping De La Cruz hunts a fastball and smashes one into the seats.

Key stat: Despite his HR drought, De La Cruz still leads the Reds in homers (18) and is on pace for a career-high 26 HRs.

Embed: #116447

Best HR predictions

Lowe to hit a home run (+375): Yankee Stadium, like GABP, is among the friendliest HR parks in the sport. That’s a good place to start.

It’s also worth noting that left-hitting players have torched New York starter Marcus Stroman this year.

In eight outings (84 at-bats), Stroman has allowed five HRs and a .560 SLG to LHHs.

Lowe is 4-for-16 with a home run off Stroman in the past. That’s nothing flashy, but at least he’s familiar in this matchup and has gone deep before.

Also, in his past 20 games overall, Lowe has homered six times while slugging .600. So he enters today’s matinee in encouraging form.

MLB home run picks made at 9:08 a.m. ET on 07/31/2025.

MLB home run picks July 30: Look for Julio Rodriguez to continue power surge

MLB home run picks

Julio Rodriguez is on a heater, and he’s one of my top MLB home run picks for Wednesday.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Rodriguez has raised his season-long slugging percentage nearly 50 points in just 15 games thanks to a remarkable power surge. He’ll have a platoon advantage tonight against a left-hander in a hitter-friendly park.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 30, featuring Ryan McMahon.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: McMahon to hit a home run (+300)

McMahon wasn’t the top-of-market option for the Yankees at third base, but he’s the guy they opted to trade for.

Through four games in pinstripes, McMahon is 4-for-13 with a double and three RBI. Not bad.

The 30-year-old was far more effective at hitter-friendly Coors Field than other parks this season, but I think Yankee Stadium will feel like home for him in no time.

For lefty hitters, the Bronx ballpark is the fourth-friendliest HR park and the ninth-friendliest overall scoring environment, according to Baseball Savant’s park factors.

Tonight in New York, McMahon and the Yankees will face Rays starter Zack Littell. Over the past two seasons, Littell has coughed up five homers in 12.2 innings at Yankee Stadium.

Also, Little has a staggering 1.82 HR/9 this year. That’s the second-highest among 64 qualified pitchers.

Roughly 90% of Little’s pitches to lefty hitters are sliders, splitters and four-seamers. Against RHPs this year, McMahon has a .566 xSLG against those pitches.

Key stat: In his past 13 games, McMahon has four home runs and a .311/.404/.644 slash line.

Best HR predictions

Rodriguez to hit a home run (+333): Rodriguez is playing some of his best baseball of the year right now, and he should be able to do some more damage tonight.

  • Over his past 15 games, Rodriguez has seven HRs and a .710 SLG.
  • He has a career-best .500 SLG vs. lefty pitching this season.
  • Rodriguez is 3-for-9 with a home run against A’s southpaw Jeffrey Springs.

Back in May, Rodriguez took Springs deep at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, which is where Wednesday’s game will be played.

Sutter Health Park is the fourth-friendliest scoring environment for righty hitters this year.

One thing I like about Springs is that he gives up a lot of fly balls. His 46.0% fly ball rate is the fifth-highest among 64 qualified starters.

MLB home run picks made at 4:28 p.m. ET on 07/30/2025.

National Bank Open schedule and odds July 31: Round of 32 betting notes on Victoria Mboko, Holger Rune and more

National Bank Open schedule

The round of 32 begins at the National Bank Open in Toronto and Montreal on Thursday.

The pre-match narrative: Five of the eight men’s matches on Thursday feature a tandem of seeded players, which should make for some compelling tennis. The respective No. 1 seeds in the men’s and women’s brackets, Alexander Zverev and Coco Gauff, will be on the hard court.

Check out our 2025 National Bank Open schedule and odds for the action on July 31.

National Bank Open schedule: Men’s bracket

Full ATP betting markets

Karen Khachanov (-350) vs. Emilio Nava (+250)
Projected start time: 11 a.m. ET

Tomas Martin Etcheverry (+155) vs. Francisco Cerundolo (-209)
Projected start time: 12:10 p.m. ET

Lorenzo Musetti (-200) vs. Alex Michelsen (+150)
Projected start time: 12:30 p.m. ET

Nuno Borges (+165) vs. Casper Ruud (-225)
Projected start time: 1:40 p.m. ET

Learner Tien (-134) vs. Reilly Opelka (+100)
Projected start time: 5 p.m. ET

Alexandre Muller (+300) vs. Holger Rune (-450)
Projected start time: 6:10 p.m. ET

Alexander Zverev (-450) vs. Matteo Arnaldi (+300)
Projected start time: 7 p.m. ET

Daniil Medvedev (-334) vs. Alexei Popyrin (+240)
Projected start time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Betting notes

  • Rune entered the ATP top 10 in late April and hasn’t left. It was back in April that he defeated Carlos Alcaraz on clay to win an ATP 500 event in Barcelona. Hard courts have been Rune’s best surface in his career (95-57, .625) and he’s 11-7 on the surface this year. Muller is just 1-3 since the clay season ended, but he does have a notable victory on tour this year against Zverev (May 21).
  • Speaking of Zverev, he’s looking to put further distance between himself and a disastrous round of 128 exit at Wimbledon. The world No. 3 is 11-4 on grass this season, which is his best mark on any surface. He has one of the most effective serves on tour, ranking fourth in service game win rate on hard courts (90.1%).
  • The nightcap features Medvedev, who lost his opening match at the National Bank Open last year. He’s coming off a frustrating upset loss in the quarterfinals at the Citi Open in DC and will surely want to find his footing with the U.S. Open just a few weeks away. Medvedev is 4-1 vs. Popyrin, winning their lone match in 2025 (on clay in May).

National Bank Open schedule: Women’s bracket

Full WTA betting markets

Coco Gauff (-550) vs. Veronika Kudermetova (+350)
Projected start time: TBD

Elena Rybakina (-900) vs. Jaqueline Adina Cristian (+500)
Projected start time: TBD

Dayana Yastremska (+155) vs. Emma Navarro (-209)
Projected start time: TBD

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (-209) vs. Aoi Ito (+155)
Projected start time: TBD

Lin Zhu (+120) vs. Suzan Lamens (-154)
Projected start time: TBD

Marta Kostyuk (-167) vs. Daria Kasatkina (+125)
Projected start time: TBD

Victoria Mboko (-118) vs. Marie Bouzkova (-112)
Projected start time: TBD

Betting notes

  • Gauff needed a third-set tiebreak to squeeze into the round of 32, and it was a much-needed win for the Atlanta native. After claiming victory at the French Open, Gauff went on to drop her opening matches at the WTA 500 event in Berlin and at Wimbledon. Her opponent, Kudermetova, is a former top-10 player who beat Gauff on hard court in 2023 (though Gauff had a hard court win vs. Kudermetova that season, too).
  • The best match on the women’s side on Thursday could be between No. 8 Navarro and No. 30 Yastremska. Navarro is favoured, but Yastremska earned the victory in their lone head-to-head matchup (January 2024 at the Australian Open). Yastremska beat Gauff at Wimbledon this summer and has reached the quarters or further in three straight non-slam tournaments.
  • Mboko is the only Canadian female who’ll hit the court on Thursday, and her match is a pick’em. The Toronto-raised 18-year-old earned a pair of straight-sets victories to reach this round. The WTA rookie already has five victories over top-50 players. Now she’ll face Bouzkova, who just won the WTA 250 event in Prague last week. If Mboko wins, she’ll be in line to face Gauff in the round of 16.

National Bank Open schedule and odds July 31: Round of 32 betting notes on Victoria Mboko, Holger Rune and more

National Bank Open schedule

The round of 32 begins at the National Bank Open in Toronto and Montreal on Thursday.

The pre-match narrative: Five of the eight men’s matches on Thursday feature a tandem of seeded players, which should make for some compelling tennis. The respective No. 1 seeds in the men’s and women’s brackets, Alexander Zverev and Coco Gauff, will be on the hard court.

Check out our 2025 National Bank Open schedule and odds for the action on July 31.

National Bank Open schedule: Men’s bracket

Full ATP betting markets

Karen Khachanov (-335) vs. Emilio Nava (+255)
Projected start time: 11 a.m. ET

Tomas Martin Etcheverry (+165) vs. Francisco Cerundolo (-210)
Projected start time: 12:10 p.m. ET

Lorenzo Musetti (-195) vs. Alex Michelsen (+155)
Projected start time: 12:30 p.m. ET

Nuno Borges (+170) vs. Casper Ruud (-220)
Projected start time: 1:40 p.m. ET

Embed: #116438

Learner Tien (-127) vs. Reilly Opelka (+102)
Projected start time: 5 p.m. ET

Alexandre Muller (+325) vs. Holger Rune (-435)
Projected start time: 6:10 p.m. ET

Embed: #116437

Alexander Zverev (-400) vs. Matteo Arnaldi (+300)
Projected start time: 7 p.m. ET

Daniil Medvedev (-305) vs. Alexei Popyrin (+235)
Projected start time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Embed: #116439

Betting notes

  • Rune entered the ATP top 10 in late April and hasn’t left. It was back in April that he defeated Carlos Alcaraz on clay to win an ATP 500 event in Barcelona. Hard courts have been Rune’s best surface in his career (95-57, .625) and he’s 11-7 on the surface this year. Muller is just 1-3 since the clay season ended, but he does have a notable victory on tour this year against Zverev (May 21).
  • Speaking of Zverev, he’s looking to put further distance between himself and a disastrous round of 128 exit at Wimbledon. The world No. 3 is 11-4 on grass this season, which is his best mark on any surface. He has one of the most effective serves on tour, ranking fourth in service game win rate on hard courts (90.1%).
  • The nightcap features Medvedev, who lost his opening match at the National Bank Open last year. He’s coming off a frustrating upset loss in the quarterfinals at the Citi Open in DC and will surely want to find his footing with the U.S. Open just a few weeks away. Medvedev is 4-1 vs. Popyrin, winning their lone match in 2025 (on clay in May).

National Bank Open schedule: Women’s bracket

Full WTA betting markets

Coco Gauff (-530) vs. Veronika Kudermetova (+390)
Projected start time: TBD

Embed: #116440

Elena Rybakina (-770) vs. Jaqueline Adina Cristian (+525)
Projected start time: TBD

Dayana Yastremska (+160) vs. Emma Navarro (-200)
Projected start time: TBD

Embed: #116442

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (-190) vs. Aoi Ito (+150)
Projected start time: TBD

Lin Zhu (+125) vs. Suzan Lamens (-155)
Projected start time: TBD

Marta Kostyuk (-159) vs. Daria Kasatkina (+128)
Projected start time: TBD

Victoria Mboko (-115) vs. Marie Bouzkova (-108)
Projected start time: TBD

Embed: #116441

Betting notes

  • Gauff needed a third-set tiebreak to squeeze into the round of 32, and it was a much-needed win for the Atlanta native. After claiming victory at the French Open, Gauff went on to drop her opening matches at the WTA 500 event in Berlin and at Wimbledon. Her opponent, Kudermetova, is a former top-10 player who beat Gauff on hard court in 2023 (though Gauff had a hard court win vs. Kudermetova that season, too).
  • The best match on the women’s side on Thursday could be between No. 8 Navarro and No. 30 Yastremska. Navarro is favoured, but Yastremska earned the victory in their lone head-to-head matchup (January 2024 at the Australian Open). Yastremska beat Gauff at Wimbledon this summer and has reached the quarters or further in three straight non-slam tournaments.
  • Mboko is the only Canadian female who’ll hit the court on Thursday, and her match is a pick’em. The Toronto-raised 18-year-old earned a pair of straight-sets victories to reach this round. The WTA rookie already has five victories over top-50 players. Now she’ll face Bouzkova, who just won the WTA 250 event in Prague last week. If Mboko wins, she’ll be in line to face Gauff in the round of 16.

Rangers vs. Angels SGP predictions July 30: Seager, Eovaldi should guide Texas to victory

Rangers vs. Angels predictions

The Texas Rangers are looking to avoid a sweep on Wednesday night, as they face the Los Angeles Angels out in SoCal.

The pregame narrative: Texas had won six straight games before this series, but a pair of losses has sunk the club just outside the wild-card picture. The home team is 7-2 in this head-to-head matchup this year, but I think Nathan Eovaldi gives the Rangers a great chance to get it done tonight on the road.

Check out my Rangers vs. Angels predictions, featuring Corey Seager and Yoan Moncada.

Rangers vs. Angels predictions

Parlay: Rangers ML | Seager over 0.5 hits | Moncada under 0.5 hits (+335)

Rangers moneyline (-120): Eovaldi just keeps getting it done. He really does seem to be getting better with age.

After posting a 4.30 ERA through his age-29 season, Eovaldi has put up a 3.46 ERA in his 30s.

This year, he has a 1.50 ERA and a 2.39 FIP in 17 starts. Those are career-best marks and would have him in AL Cy Young contention if he hadn’t missed time due to injury.

Texas is 4-0 in Eovaldi’s starts this month. That makes sense considering he’s only allowed one earned run in that span.

L.A.’s Jose Soriano is 0-2 vs. the Rangers this year, allowing eight runs on 13 hits in 9.2 innings.

Embed: #116433

MLB SGP legs

Seager over 0.5 hits (-245): What a month it’s been for Seager.

The two-time World Series MVP is hitting at an MVP-calibre pace in July:

  • .333 BA
  • .455 OBP
  • .630 SLG
  • 1+ hits in 18 of 22 games

The main risk for this prop is that Seager reaches base via walks rather than hits. He has a discerning eye and Soriano can be erratic, so it’s possible.

But Seager also has a 100th-percentile xBA (.313) per Baseball Savant, and a 98th-percentile xSLG (.608). He should be counted on for a hit in pretty much every game.

Seager is 4-for-6 with a home run and two walks vs. Soriano.

Moncada under 0.5 hits (+108): If the Angels were hoping to flip Moncada at the trade deadline, he sure hasn’t been upping his value lately.

Moncada is hitless in seven of his past 12 starts, batting 6-for-37 (.162) in that span.

On the season, Moncada is batting .221. That’s 59th-worst among 328 players with at least 150 plate appearances.

And remember, he’s facing an absolute bully of a pitcher tonight.

Eovaldi has held right-hitting players to a .173/.220/.231 slash line this season. And so far in July, he has allowed just 15 hits in 23.2 innings.

Moncada and Eovaldi are moving in opposite directions, and I think fading the third baseman makes sense.

Rangers vs. Angels predictions made at 1:35 p.m. ET on 07/30/2025.

MLB home run picks July 30: Look for Julio Rodriguez to continue power surge

MLB home run picks

Julio Rodriguez is on a heater, and he’s one of my top MLB home run picks for Wednesday.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Rodriguez has raised his season-long slugging percentage nearly 50 points in just 15 games thanks to a remarkable power surge. He’ll have a platoon advantage tonight against a left-hander in a hitter-friendly park.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 30, featuring Ryan McMahon.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: McMahon to hit a home run (+390)

McMahon wasn’t the top-of-market option for the Yankees at third base, but he’s the guy they opted to trade for.

Through four games in pinstripes, McMahon is 4-for-13 with a double and three RBI. Not bad.

The 30-year-old was far more effective at hitter-friendly Coors Field than other parks this season, but I think Yankee Stadium will feel like home for him in no time.

For lefty hitters, the Bronx ballpark is the fourth-friendliest HR park and the ninth-friendliest overall scoring environment, according to Baseball Savant’s park factors.

Tonight in New York, McMahon and the Yankees will face Rays starter Zack Littell. Over the past two seasons, Littell has coughed up five homers in 12.2 innings at Yankee Stadium.

Also, Little has a staggering 1.82 HR/9 this year. That’s the second-highest among 64 qualified pitchers.

Roughly 90% of Little’s pitches to lefty hitters are sliders, splitters and four-seamers. Against RHPs this year, McMahon has a .566 xSLG against those pitches.

Key stat: In his past 13 games, McMahon has four home runs and a .311/.404/.644 slash line.

Embed: #116431

Best HR predictions

Rodriguez to hit a home run (+380): Rodriguez is playing some of his best baseball of the year right now, and he should be able to do some more damage tonight.

  • Over his past 15 games, Rodriguez has seven HRs and a .710 SLG.
  • He has a career-best .500 SLG vs. lefty pitching this season.
  • Rodriguez is 3-for-9 with a home run against A’s southpaw Jeffrey Springs.

Back in May, Rodriguez took Springs deep at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, which is where Wednesday’s game will be played.

Sutter Health Park is the fourth-friendliest scoring environment for righty hitters this year.

One thing I like about Springs is that he gives up a lot of fly balls. His 46.0% fly ball rate is the fifth-highest among 64 qualified starters.

MLB home run picks made at 12:28 p.m. ET on 07/30/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles best bets July 30: Expect Lukes, Rutschman to contribute on offence

Blue Jays best bets

In order to avoid a four-game sweep, the Toronto Blue Jays will need to win Wednesday’s matinee against the Baltimore Orioles.

The pregame narrative: It’s an early start (12:35 p.m. ET), but there’s no need to skimp on picks with plenty of offensive potential in this matchup. Adley Rutschman looks to build on some post-injured-list success against a familiar foe, while Nathan Lukes draws a matchup that fits his hitter profile nicely.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Orioles for July 30.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Orioles

Best bet: Rutschman over 1.5 total bases (+125)

Much like the team he plays for, Rutschman’s 2025 season has largely been a flop. But there are signs that the two-time all-star is turning a corner.

Rutschman was barely scraping above the Mendoza Line through May, with a .203 average and a .632 OPS.

But in June, he posted an .890 OPS over 15 games to flash a glimmer of hope for a turnaround. Then he suffered an oblique injury, which put him on the shelf for more than a month.

He returned this series, much to the chagrin of the Blue Jays, and has picked up right where he left off:

  • 4-for-9
  • 3 doubles
  • 3 RBI
  • 2-0 vs. his bases prop

Rutschman posted elite walk rates in his first two seasons, but he’s scaled that back while maintaining a sky-high contact rate. Now batting in the cleanup spot for the O’s, pitchers will be forced to work in the zone against him if there are runners on base.

And that’s probably the last thing Jose Berrios wants to do, given their history.

Rutschman is 15-for-28 (.536) with four home runs and two doubles vs. Berrios. The switch-hitting catcher only has two walks and two strikeouts in that hearty sample size.

With his stock on the rise, Rutschman is worth backing in a matchup he’s excelled in many times before.

Key stat: Rutschman is 10-7 vs. this prop since the start of June, averaging 2.1 bases per game in that span.

Quick pick

Orioles over 4.5 runs (-130): The best offence since the all-star break, by wRC+, belongs to the Blue Jays (139).

But the O’s are right behind them (137 wRC+), and you could say they’ve been the more productive outfit.

  • 1st in SLG (.518)
  • 1st in runs/game (6.2)
  • 2nd in ISO (.233)
  • 2nd in BA (.285)

Rutschman isn’t the only Baltimore hitter who tends to turn up the heat on Berrios.

As a lineup, the O’s have a .305 BA and a .547 SLG in 190 at-bats against the right-hander. That’s a massive sample for a squad to have against one pitcher.

This will be Berrios’ third start vs. Baltimore in 2025. The O’s cashed this bet in the first two, scored 10 runs off 16 hits in 10.0 innings against him.

Lukes over 0.5 runs (+100): Lukes had a rough doubleheader yesterday, going 0-for-9 with a walk.

But in a game that should feature plenty of offence — the projected total is 10 runs — I think this is a fair price to back Toronto’s leadoff man.

The left-hitting Lukes has the platoon advantage against the right-handed Dean Kremer, which is a nice place to start:

  • Lukes vs. RHPs: .783 OPS (compared to a .553 OPS vs. LHPs)
  • Kremer vs. LHHs: .758 OPS (compared to .682 OPS vs. RHHs)

Also, Kremer’s pitch arsenal aligns nicely with what Lukes loves to mash.

According to Baseball Savant, Kremer throws a combination of four-seam fastballs, curveballs and splitters roughly 80% of the time to left-hitting players.

Against that pitch mix from righties, Lukes has a .296/.358/.463 slash line (.821 OPS).

Prior to Tuesday’s dud doubleheader, Lukes had scored in five straight games.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:53 a.m. ET on 07/30/2025.