Elly De La Cruz hasn’t homered in a while, but some factors are working in his favour on Thursday night.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: De La Cruz is still swinging a productive bat, and tonight he’ll be up against a pitcher that routinely gives up loud contact. Earlier in the day — i.e., before the trade deadline passes — Brandon Lowe is a worthy home run candidate in the Bronx.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 31.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: De La Cruz to hit a home run (+270)
De La Cruz is on a 29-game home run drought, but it’s not like he’s bottomed out offensively in that span.
The towering shortstop still has a respectable .804 OPS during the drought. For context, this season’s league-average OPS is .718.
I like tonight’s opportunity for De La Cruz, who has done his best work at home — and from the left side of the plate.
Though he’s a switch hitter, De La Cruz’s .303/.396/.534 slash line from the left is notably higher than the alternative (.241/.288/.380 from the right side).
At Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, De La Cruz is slugging .500. It helps knowing that GABP is the second-friendliest HR park for hitters on both sides of the plate, per Baseball Savant’s park factors.
The final aspect of this equation is the opposing starter, Carlos Carrasco. Well past his prime at this point, Carrasco has some brutal batted ball metrics:
- 6th-percentile barrel rate
- 7th-percentile xBA
- 9th-percentile average exit velocity
- 15th-percentile xERA
Left-hitting players are batting .354 with a .521 SLG off Carrasco’s two fastball offerings (four-seam, sinker). I’m hoping De La Cruz hunts a fastball and smashes one into the seats.
Key stat: Despite his HR drought, De La Cruz still leads the Reds in homers (18) and is on pace for a career-high 26 HRs.
Best HR predictions
Lowe to hit a home run (+350): Yankee Stadium, like GABP, is among the friendliest HR parks in the sport. That’s a good place to start.
It’s also worth noting that left-hitting players have torched New York starter Marcus Stroman this year.
In eight outings (84 at-bats), Stroman has allowed five HRs and a .560 SLG to LHHs.
Lowe is 4-for-16 with a home run off Stroman in the past. That’s nothing flashy, but at least he’s familiar in this matchup and has gone deep before.
Also, in his past 20 games overall, Lowe has homered six times while slugging .600. So he enters today’s matinee in encouraging form.
MLB home run picks made at 12:58 p.m. ET on 07/31/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.