Julio Rodriguez is on a heater, and he’s one of my top MLB home run picks for Wednesday.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Rodriguez has raised his season-long slugging percentage nearly 50 points in just 15 games thanks to a remarkable power surge. He’ll have a platoon advantage tonight against a left-hander in a hitter-friendly park.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 30, featuring Ryan McMahon.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: McMahon to hit a home run (+390)
McMahon wasn’t the top-of-market option for the Yankees at third base, but he’s the guy they opted to trade for.
Through four games in pinstripes, McMahon is 4-for-13 with a double and three RBI. Not bad.
The 30-year-old was far more effective at hitter-friendly Coors Field than other parks this season, but I think Yankee Stadium will feel like home for him in no time.
For lefty hitters, the Bronx ballpark is the fourth-friendliest HR park and the ninth-friendliest overall scoring environment, according to Baseball Savant’s park factors.
Tonight in New York, McMahon and the Yankees will face Rays starter Zack Littell. Over the past two seasons, Littell has coughed up five homers in 12.2 innings at Yankee Stadium.
Also, Little has a staggering 1.82 HR/9 this year. That’s the second-highest among 64 qualified pitchers.
Roughly 90% of Little’s pitches to lefty hitters are sliders, splitters and four-seamers. Against RHPs this year, McMahon has a .566 xSLG against those pitches.
Key stat: In his past 13 games, McMahon has four home runs and a .311/.404/.644 slash line.
Best HR predictions
Rodriguez to hit a home run (+380): Rodriguez is playing some of his best baseball of the year right now, and he should be able to do some more damage tonight.
- Over his past 15 games, Rodriguez has seven HRs and a .710 SLG.
- He has a career-best .500 SLG vs. lefty pitching this season.
- Rodriguez is 3-for-9 with a home run against A’s southpaw Jeffrey Springs.
Back in May, Rodriguez took Springs deep at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, which is where Wednesday’s game will be played.
Sutter Health Park is the fourth-friendliest scoring environment for righty hitters this year.
One thing I like about Springs is that he gives up a lot of fly balls. His 46.0% fly ball rate is the fifth-highest among 64 qualified starters.
MLB home run picks made at 12:28 p.m. ET on 07/30/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.