The MLB-leading Toronto Blue Jays are a runaway freight train right now, and they’ll look to polish off a four-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers on Sunday afternoon.
The pregame narrative: Detroit is a slight favourite in a matchup between Max Scherzer and Jack Flaherty, despite the Tigers’ 1-8 record since the all-star break. Toronto is 8-1 in the same span and has outscored Detroit by 16 runs in this series.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Tigers for July 27, featuring props on Scherzer and Bo Bichette.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Tigers
Best bet: Scherzer under 15.5 outs (-130)
Sunday is a big day for Scherzer, who’ll celebrate his birthday pitching at Comerica Park (formerly his home field for a Cy Young-winning season).
But do I think John Schneider and the Jays will gift the 41-year-old with an outsized workload? Definitely not.
- Scherzer has thrown 28.0 innings over six starts this year, only once collecting more than 15 outs.
- His pitch count hasn’t exceeded 90 in any outing this year.
- Scherzer missed close to three months with a thumb injury. That issue has flared up at times since his return and poses an unpredictable risk factor in any given start.
The primary concern that I have with this pick is that Scherzer is facing an absolutely ice-cold lineup. He might be able to work deep simply if the Tigers can’t drum up any offence.
Since the all-star break, the Tigers have a .181/.239/.271 slash line as a team. All three of those marks are dead last in MLB.
But again, Scherzer isn’t counted on to be an innings eater at this point in his career. And the Blue Jays’ bullpen is sufficiently rested.
Seven of Toronto’s relievers have pitched either once or not at all in the past three days. That includes closer Jeff Hoffman, who really should get in there after four days off.
Key stat: Scherzer is averaging 14.0 outs per start through six games this year. He has gone under 15.5 outs in five of those six starts.
Quick pick
Blue Jays moneyline (+100): Fading Scherzer’s outs total doesn’t mean I want to fade the Jays as a collective.
And how could I? These teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum since the all-star break.
While the Tigers rank 30th in wRC+ (43), the Blue Jays are at the top of the league (146 wRC+).
Toronto is 8-1 in that span against three playoff-calibre teams: the Giants, Yankees and Tigers.
Now they’ll face a scuffling Jack Flaherty, who has a 7.79 ERA over his past seven starts. Detroit is just 1-6 in those games. And since the ASG, the Tigers are 1-8 in games against the Rangers, Pirates and Jays.
Bichette over 0.5 RBI (+130): While the Blue Jays’ offence has been rolling, Bichette is consistently finding himself in situations to drive in runners.
Over his past 16 games, Bichette is 8-8 vs. this prop with 13 RBI. He has five multi-RBI performances in his past seven games overall.
Looking at that 16-game stretch dating back to July 6, Bichette is second in MLB in plate appearances with runners on (42) and with runners in scoring position (26).
Bichette’s .364/.462/.682 slash line with RISP in that span is ultra clutch. No wonder the Jays have cemented him as their cleanup hitter.
In his career against Flaherty, Bichette is 4-for-10 with a double.
Blue Jays picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 07/27/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.