Fresh off another series win, the Toronto Blue Jays head to Baltimore to begin a four-game set against the Orioles.
The pregame narrative: Toronto’s 8-2 start to the second half has vaulted the team to the top of the MLB standings. Baltimore, meanwhile, is far closer to the league basement than anyone could’ve expected. But the O’s offence is coming around, and Monday’s 9.5-run projected total reflects that.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Orioles for July 28, featuring props on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ryan O’Hearn.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Orioles
Best bet: Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-120)
Remember Guerrero’s second-half power surge from last season? Well, it’s happening again.
Entering the all-star break in 2024, Guerrero had an .818 OPS before exploding for an 1.127 OPS down the stretch.
The franchise player also entered this year’s break with an .818 OPS … and he’s posted an 1.175 OPS in 10 games since.
It’s a tiny sample, but we did just see this story unfold last year. Also, Guerrero ranks in the 100th percentile in expected batting average (.319), per Baseball Savant, so it’s not like he’s fluked his way into being an elite hitter.
With that 100th-percentile xBA comes a 93rd-percentile walk rate (13.5%). I’m never sure exactly how Guerrero is going to get on base, but he often finds a way.
And as long as he gets on base, he’ll be a threat to score. Especially with how the Blue Jays’ lineup has been humming since the all-star break:
- 1st in wRC+ (142)
- 1st in BA (.307)
- 1st in K% (14.3%)
- 3rd in runs/game (6.1)
Tonight, Toronto will face Baltimore starter Zach Eflin, who has a 7.76 ERA in six starts since the beginning of June.
Elfin also has a 5.22 ERA in five outings vs. Toronto since the start of last year.
Key stat: Guerrero has scored 11 runs in his past eight games, going 7-1 vs. this prop in that span. He reached base at least twice in each of those games, too.
Quick pick
Over 9.5 runs (-108): The Jays have had MLB’s best offence coming out of the break, but the O’s aren’t too far behind.
In 10 second-half games, Baltimore ranks ninth in wRC+ (111) while averaging the sixth-most runs (5.1/game).
Through six matchups this season, the average total in this head-to-head matchup is 10.7 runs (and this over is 4-2 in those games).
Also, Eflin isn’t the only starter in this game with a checkered past against his opposing lineup.
Bassitt has made five starts vs. Baltimore since joining the Jays in 2023, and he has a 6.92 ERA against them. The current O’s lineup has a .515 SLG vs. Bassitt in 97 at-bats.
O’Hearn over 1.5 total bases (+135): O’Hearn fares well against right-handed pitching, and he knows a thing or two about how to attack Bassitt.
The first baseman is 7-for-13 vs. Bassitt with a home run and a double. He reached base in all three plate appearances against Bassitt when Toronto faced Baltimore on March 30 (single, double, walk).
Bassitt’s opponent SLG is notably higher vs. left-hitting players (.468) compared to right-hitting players (.362).
O’Hearn is deployed almost exclusively with a platoon advantage, and it makes sense. He has a .586 OPS vs. LHPs and an .875 OPS vs. RHPs.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 07/28/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.