Let’s make it three days in a row where at least one of our staff’s MLB home run picks comes through.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Last night, Manny Machado cashed a +480 HR pick for me in St. Louis. On Friday night, both Jo Adell and Cody Bellinger look like promising options — but for varying reasons.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 25.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Adell to hit a home run (+420)
Adell is ice cold right now. There’s no way to sugarcoat that.
Over his past 11 games, the outfielder is batting .156 with 18 strikeouts and two home runs.
Adell swings really hard (99th-percentile bat speed, per Baseball Savant), and he misses a lot. But when he runs into one, it goes a mile.
He ranks in the 85th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. The standout metric is his .574 xSLG, which ranks in the 97th percentile.
For a home run prop, you just need the stars to align on one pitch in one at-bat. Adell has the tools to put that together.
I also like the fact that tonight’s matchup against the Mariners will take place at Angel Stadium, which is the fourth-friendliest HR park for right-hitting players.
There are 18% more homers than average for RHHs in Anaheim.
Seattle’s Bryan Woo will be on the mound tonight, and his 94th-percentile walk rate heightens the chances of Adell putting something in play.
Also, Adell is 3-for-3 in his career vs. Woo with two home runs.
Key stat: Adell is tied for 17th in MLB with 21 homers, which is already a career-high total.
Best HR predictions
Bellinger to hit a home run (+390): Bellinger is enjoying a banner month, and I’m hoping to cash in.
Aaron Judge was the first Yankee I looked at tonight, naturally, but his +170 HR price didn’t speak to me the way Bellinger’s price does.
Not that I’d compare the two as home run hitters, but Bellinger has put on quite a power display recently. He has a .347/.356/.667 slash line in July, homering five times in his past eight games.
Bellinger does his best work at Yankee Stadium, where left-handed batters hit 23% more home runs than average.
The first-year Yankee is slugging .579 at home, and that’s where he’s hit 12 of his 18 HRs.
Bellinger doesn’t have the best numbers against Phillies starter Taijuan Walker (6-for-22, .409 SLG). But he has homered once in this matchup, and the volume of at-bats is solid.
MLB home run picks made at 10:49 a.m. ET on 07/25/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.