Tuesday’s MLB home run picks include Seiya Suzuki as the headliner and a +500 long shot.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Suzuki has been a menace against left-handed pitching, and I think he’ll have a field day against a shaky southpaw tonight. Elsewhere in MLB, look for Ryan McMahon and Yoan Moncada to make noise.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 22.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Suzuki to hit a home run (+290)
Rich Hill is a baseball treasure, but I also think he’s worth targeting on Tuesday night in the Windy City.
The 45-year-old lefty will make his 2025 season debut for the Kansas City Royals after grinding out 11 starts in the minors.
He’d only made seven minor-league starts combined from 2016-24, so his extended stay this year sticks out. It’s a reminder that he really had to prove he was capable of returning to the top level.
But … did he prove that?
After two outings in rookie ball, Hill moved up to Triple-A Omaha and had some uninspiring results:
- 9 starts
- 9 HRs
- 5.36 ERA
- .264 opponent BA
His 1.92 HR/9 in Triple-A is higher than any of the 61 qualified MLB pitchers this year.
The soft-tossing southpaw should be a nice matchup for Suzuki, who has crushed lefties this year. He has a 150 wRC+ vs. LHPs, which ranks 18th in MLB.
Suzuki is also tied for sixth in MLB in home runs (26), so he knows a thing or two about going yard.
Key stat: In his past 24 games, Suzuki has eight HRs and a .600 SLG.
Best HR predictions
McMahon to hit a home run (+320): McMahon is a three-true-outcome hitter, with lots of pop, walks and whiffs.
- 3rd-percentile strikeout rate (31.6%)
- 86th-percentile walk rate (12.0%)
- 97th-percentile exit velocity (93.8 mph)
Tonight, he’ll face a pitcher in Erick Fedde who ranks in the bottom 10th percentile in xERA, xBA, K rate and whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. So I don’t expect McMahon to be fooled much.
The left-hitting infielder will have a platoon advantage, and he’s playing in the ultra-hitter-friendly Coors Field.
So far this season, 10 of McMahon’s 15 homers have come at Coors — including a pair of HRs in four games since the all-star break.
Moncada to hit a home run (+500): Moncada never reached the heights that were expected of him with the White Sox, but maybe his time with the Angels will be a rebirth for his career.
The 30-year-old has eight homers and a .500 SLG in 38 games (35 starts) for L.A. He’s homered in two of his past five.
As a switch-hitter, Moncada will bat from the left side tonight against right-hander Frankie Montas. New York’s Citi Field allows 19% more homers to left-hitting players than average, per Baseball Savant.
Montas (2-1, 5.03 ERA) has been hit hard through four starts. He’s allowed four HRs and a .487 SLG.
MLB home run picks made at 11:54 a.m. ET on 07/22/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.