Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.
On Tuesday night, the Toronto Blue Jays look to move to 5-0 in the second half with a matchup against the New York Yankees.
The pregame narrative: A groundswell of buzz is building around the Jays, who are 4.0 games clear of the Yankees atop the talented AL East. Max Scherzer, who gets the start for Toronto tonight, tossed five solid innings vs. New York in a home win last month.
When there’s a pitcher on the mound with little-to-no MLB experience, it can be difficult to know where to turn in the prop market.
Yankees starter Cam Schlittler has just one big-league start to his name. But there’s still enough to draw upon that makes me interested in Springer tonight.
Firstly, Springer is ripping it up this month:
In 14 starts, he has a .333/.403/.667 slash line and is 8-6 vs. his bases prop.
His strikeout rate is down (15.0%, compared to 19.3% on the season) and his hard-hit rate is up (52.0%, compared to 47.0% on the season).
Springer has a .326 xBA, per Baseball Savant, which is nearly aligned with his .333 actual BA.
So before even thinking about Schlittler, there’s a lot to like about how the veteran outfielder is performing these days.
I do think this is a compelling matchup for Springer, though, based on Schlittler’s pitch mix.
It’s only one game, but Schlittler threw nothing but four-seam fastballs, sliders and sweepers against right-hitting players in his MLB debut.
Against righty pitchers, Springer has a .531 SLG (.614 xSLG) this season when seeing those exact pitch types.
Key stat: Schlittler’s fastball averages 97.1 mph, and Springer can handle the heat. Facing pitches thrown 97 mph or harder this year, Springer is 9-for-23 (.391) with a .652 SLG.
Grisham over 0.5 runs (+100): Grisham singled and scored against Scherzer in their June 30 matchup in Toronto. That came in the heart of a really nice run for the moustachioed outfielder.
Over his past 20 games, Grisham has a .958 OPS and has reached base 33 times.
He is 10-7 vs. his runs prop in 17 starts during that span.
Scherzer has been punished by left-hitting players this year, allowing an .882 OPS. By comparison, righties have posted just a .686 OPS against him.
Grisham has a sky-high walk rate (13.6%, 93rd percentile) and almost never chases (17.0%, 99th percentile). He’ll be a tough out for Scherzer.
Blue Jays picks made at 9:19 a.m. ET on 07/22/2025.
The wait for college football won’t last much longer, as a four-pack of Week 0 games is coming soon.
The latest: On Saturday, August 23, the NCAA Division I season officially kicks off with a notable Big 12 matchup in Ireland. There are three games on U.S. soil, too, including a matchup between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Kansas Jayhawks.
Check out our 2025 college football Week 0 odds and betting lines as of July 17.
Date: Aug. 23 at 12 p.m. ET Spread: Kansas State -3.5 (-110)
The Big 12 was the most congested conference in the FBS last year. It’s shaping up to be that way again in 2025.
K-State is the frontrunner at +400, which is just a 20.0% implied probability. That’s the lowest implied probability for any preseason conference favourite.
Quarterback Avery Johnson is a strong dual-threat presence for the Wildcats, and he’ll have some intriguing weapons to work with.
K-State now has three receivers (two of whom transferred in) who averaged 15-plus yards per catch or more in 2024.
Iowa State was tied for the best Big 12 record last year (7-2). But with key losses that include two NFL-bound receivers, the Cyclones are expected to take a small step back. Still, in a conference as wide open as this one, this is about as weighty as a Week 0 matchup gets.
Keep in mind that there’s no true home team for this intraconference clash. The Wildcats and Cyclones will play at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland.
Fresno State (+425) vs. Kansas (-600)
Date: Aug. 23 at 6:30 p.m. ET Spread: Kansas -14 (-110)
Some sizeable what-ifs surrounded the Jayhawks last year as a result of their 1-5 record in one-score games.
This matchup isn’t supposed to be a one-score game, so maybe Kansas can get off on the right foot.
After a 6-7 season, Fresno State was ravaged by transfers and graduations.
The Bulldogs’ starting quarterback is gone, as are their top three receivers, 60% of the offensive line and 11 of 16 defensive players with 300-plus snaps (per ESPN).
It’s Year 6 in Kansas for QB Jalon Daniels, who once competed against Chuba Hubbard (now entering his fifth NFL season).
Daniels is erratic but exciting, evidenced by his Big 12-highs in interceptions (12) and yards per completion (14.4) a season ago.
College football Week 0 odds: Sam Houston (+280) vs. Western Kentucky (-350)
Date: Aug. 23 at 7 p.m. ET Spread: Western Kentucky -9.5 (-110)
Just as the Kansas State/Iowa State matchup is key for the power balance of the Big 12, this game has plenty of meaning for the state of Conference USA.
The Hilltoppers have the second-shortest odds to win the conference (+350), which has little to do with last year’s 6-2 conference record. WKU only has two returning starters in 2025, and practically half of its roster has turned over.
That’s nothing new for Western Kentucky, though, as the team will deploy its fourth offensive coordinator in five seasons.
Transfer QB Maverick McIvor takes over after finishing fourth in FCS in passing yards last year. He’ll have three fellow transfers to throw to who averaged 18-plus yards per catch in 2024.
As for Sam Houston, last year’s 10-3 season was a seismic shift from its 3-9 campaign in 2023. But with a 6-0 record in one-score games, a supremely inexperienced defence and a new head coach, we could see plenty of regression for the Bearkats here.
Stanford (-120) vs. Hawaii (+100)
Date: Aug. 23 at 7:30 p.m. ET Spread: Stanford -1.5 (-110)
Hawaii is a mainstay on the Week 0 schedule. Last year, the Warriors earned a comfortable 35-14 win over FCS Delaware State.
This game is close to pick’em territory, as neither Hawaii nor Stanford is all that imposing.
Stanford went 3-9 (2-6 ACC) in its maiden voyage outside of the Pac-12. The Cardinal have 73% of last year’s defensive production back, per ESPN, but is that even a good thing? The team allowed 33.7 points per game in 2024 (116th of 134 schools).
Honolulu-born Micah Alejado will be the most exciting player on the field in this game.
He’s only 5-foot-10, but he threw for 125 touchdowns and just four interceptions at the heralded Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas.
Alejado finally got a look in Hawaii’s last two games of 2024. In those matchups, he completed 48 of 69 passes (69.6%) for 580 yards and six TDs.
The wait for college football won’t last much longer, as a four-pack of Week 0 games is coming soon.
The latest: On Saturday, August 23, the NCAA Division I season officially kicks off with a notable Big 12 matchup in Ireland. There are three games on U.S. soil, too, including a matchup between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Kansas Jayhawks.
Check out our 2025 college football Week 0 odds and betting lines as of July 17.
The Big 12 was the most congested conference in the FBS last year. It’s shaping up to be that way again in 2025.
K-State is the frontrunner at +400, which is just a 20.0% implied probability. That’s the lowest implied probability for any preseason conference favourite.
Quarterback Avery Johnson is a strong dual-threat presence for the Wildcats, and he’ll have some intriguing weapons to work with.
K-State now has three receivers (two of whom transferred in) who averaged 15-plus yards per catch or more in 2024.
Iowa State was tied for the best Big 12 record last year (7-2). But with key losses that include two NFL-bound receivers, the Cyclones are expected to take a small step back. Still, in a conference as wide open as this one, this is about as weighty as a Week 0 matchup gets.
Keep in mind that there’s no true home team for this intraconference clash. The Wildcats and Cyclones will play at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland.
Some sizeable what-ifs surrounded the Jayhawks last year as a result of their 1-5 record in one-score games.
This matchup isn’t supposed to be a one-score game, so maybe Kansas can get off on the right foot.
After a 6-7 season, Fresno State was ravaged by transfers and graduations.
The Bulldogs’ starting quarterback is gone, as are their top three receivers, 60% of the offensive line and 11 of 16 defensive players with 300-plus snaps (per ESPN).
It’s Year 6 in Kansas for QB Jalon Daniels, who once competed against Chuba Hubbard (now entering his fifth NFL season).
Daniels is erratic but exciting, evidenced by his Big 12-highs in interceptions (12) and yards per completion (14.4) a season ago.
College football Week 0 odds: Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky
Just as the Kansas State/Iowa State matchup is key for the power balance of the Big 12, this game has plenty of meaning for the state of Conference USA.
The Hilltoppers have the second-shortest odds to win the conference (+350), which has little to do with last year’s 6-2 conference record. WKU only has two returning starters in 2025, and practically half of its roster has turned over.
That’s nothing new for Western Kentucky, though, as the team will deploy its fourth offensive coordinator in five seasons.
Transfer QB Maverick McIvor takes over after finishing fourth in FCS in passing yards last year. He’ll have three fellow transfers to throw to who averaged 18-plus yards per catch in 2024.
As for Sam Houston, last year’s 10-3 season was a seismic shift from its 3-9 campaign in 2023. But with a 6-0 record in one-score games, a supremely inexperienced defence and a new head coach, we could see plenty of regression for the Bearkats here.
Hawaii is a mainstay on the Week 0 schedule. Last year, the Warriors earned a comfortable 35-14 win over FCS Delaware State.
This game is close to pick’em territory, as neither Hawaii nor Stanford is all that imposing.
Stanford went 3-9 (2-6 ACC) in its maiden voyage outside of the Pac-12. The Cardinal have 73% of last year’s defensive production back, per ESPN, but is that even a good thing? The team allowed 33.7 points per game in 2024 (116th of 134 schools).
Honolulu-born Micah Alejado will be the most exciting player on the field in this game.
He’s only 5-foot-10, but he threw for 125 touchdowns and just four interceptions at the heralded Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas.
Alejado finally got a look in Hawaii’s last two games of 2024. In those matchups, he completed 48 of 69 passes (69.6%) for 580 yards and six TDs.
Coming out of the four-day all-star break, the Toronto Blue Jays are home to face the San Francisco Giants for a weekend series.
The AL East is tightening up, with four teams playing above-.500 ball. Toronto (55-41) leads the pack thanks to a recent 10-game win streak and will look to start strong with a homestand at Rogers Centre.
Check out our Blue Jays vs. Giants preview for the July 18-20 series, highlighting the starting pitching matchups, betting trends and more.
It’s been a while since the Toronto Blue Jays entered the second half of a season with this much hype.
The Jays set a franchise record for wins before the all-star break (55). And this is the first time they’ve held a division lead entering the second half since 2000.
Toronto has a tricky stretch right out of the gate, though, with 10 consecutive games against the Giants, Yankees and Tigers — three of the top 12 MLB teams based on current records.
San Francisco is built on stout pitching. The rotation is loaded with big-name vets, and Toronto will see three of them in this series. On the back end, the Giants have the lowest bullpen ERA in the majors (3.14).
Starting pitcher matchups
July 18: RHP Justin Verlander (0-7, 4.81 ERA) vs. RHP Chris Bassitt (9-4, 4.12 ERA)
Verlander has no-hit the Blue Jays twice at Rogers Centre (2011, 2019), but a lot has changed since then. The 42-year-old is labouring in what could be his final season, ranking in the bottom 25th percentile in xERA, xBA and barrel rate.
Bassitt has so-so numbers against the Giants’ lineup (.234 BA, .422 SLG in 64 at-bats), and his greatest nemesis is Devers. In past matchups vs. Bassitt, Devers is 8-for-17 with three home runs and two doubles.
July 19: LHP Robbie Ray (9-3, 2.65 ERA) vs. LHP Eric Lauer (4-2, 2.78 ERA)
Tommy John surgery derailed most of Ray’s past two seasons, but he’s back to pitching like the guy who won the 2021 AL Cy Young as a member of the Jays. The left-hander has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 19 of 20 starts this season, and San Francisco is 15-5 in his starts.
Lauer doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he’s hitting enough spots to skate by. He’s also an efficient strikeout generator, with 30 Ks over 24.2 innings in his past five matchups. The former first-round pick has a 2.91 FIP since joining the rotation for good on June 11.
July 20: RHP Logan Webb (9-6, 2.94 ERA) vs. RHP Jose Berrios (5-4, 3.75 ERA)
Webb is a workhorse, tracking toward the NL innings lead for a third consecutive season. The Dodgers roughed up Webb in his final pre-all-star start (six runs in 5.1 innings), but he’d posted a 2.51 ERA in 12 outings before that.
It’s difficult to know what you’re getting from Berrios these days. In his past seven starts, he’s allowed one or zero runs four times … but he allowed 16 combined runs in the other three.
Who’s hot and who’s not
Nathan Lukes (OF): Lukes isn’t an everyday starter, which means his prop markets might come and go. But the left-hitting outfielder has made six starts as the leadoff man this month, and that’s something to watch for. Lukes has posted a .355/.444/.581 slash line in 11 games (eight starts) in July, scoring seven runs in the process.
Ernie Clement (INF): Clement has a 1.041 OPS vs. left-handed pitching and often finds himself in the leadoff spot when a southpaw is on the mound. That might not last, though, given how dreadful July has been for him (.178/.208/.222 slash line in 12 games). Clement is hitless in five of his past nine starts.
Willy Adames (INF): Year 1 of Adames’ seven-year, $182 million contract hasn’t been great. But he’s finally flashing some of the power that San Francisco thought it was acquiring. The shortstop is slugging .614 this month, collecting seven extra-base hits in 12 games. But he still owns just a 12th-percentile xBA (.226), per Baseball Savant.
Devers (DH): Devers came over to the Giants in what will likely be the biggest trade of 2025, but it’s not working out well so far. The full-time designated hitter is batting .202 with a .326 SLG in 25 games with his new team. On the bright side, he still ranks in the 88th percentile or better in xwOBA, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Blue Jays vs. Giants preview: Betting trends
Toronto has the 2nd-best run line record in MLB (55-41, 57.3%).
The Giants have the 4th-worst run line record (43-54, 44.3%).
Overs are 24-10-1 when the Giants are underdogs (1st in MLB).
Overs are 51-42-3 in Blue Jays games (3rd in MLB).
Adames has cashed his 1.5 total bases prop in 6 of 12 starts this month.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is averaging 1.7 total bases since June 1. But he only has four HRs in 33 games over that span.
After a four-day hiatus for the all-star break, MLB is back in action with a full slate of Friday games.
Today’s MLB narrative: The season’s second half begins with an afternoon showdown at Wrigley Field between the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs. In Toronto, the AL East-leading Blue Jays are favoured over the San Francisco Giants.
Check out the latest MLB odds for July 18 below.
MLB odds and betting insights
Trading away Rafael Devers made Boston look like a potential soft seller, but a recent resurgence has quashed that thought. The Red Sox are 12-1 since June 30 to move within 3.0 games of the division lead. Chicago is no slouch, though, holding down the second-best record in the NL. The Cubs are 14-5 in Colin Rea’s starts this year, and he’ll be on the mound for the North Siders.
San Diego’s Dylan Cease is looking to sharpen things up in the second half after going 1-4 with a 6.51 ERA in his past five outings. Cease has held Washington’s active lineup to a .186 BA and a .300 SLG in 70 at-bats.
What will the second half bring for the Blue Jays, who’ve vastly exceeded expectations so far? At this point, Toronto is no longer an underdog story. San Francisco is having a nice season, too, driven by a pitching staff with the third-lowest ERA in the majors (3.52).
Spencer Strider vs. the Yankees, anyone? Strider has had some bumps in the road this year, but he seemed to find himself in mid-June. Over his past six starts, Strider has a 2.95 ERA and a 12.3 K/9. The Yankees, meanwhile, have MLB’s highest wRC+ (120).
Coming out of the four-day all-star break, the Toronto Blue Jays are home to face the San Francisco Giants for a weekend series.
The AL East is tightening up, with four teams playing above-.500 ball. Toronto (55-41) leads the pack thanks to a recent 10-game win streak and will look to start strong with a homestand at Rogers Centre.
Check out our Blue Jays vs. Giants preview for the July 18-20 series, highlighting the starting pitching matchups, betting trends and more.
It’s been a while since the Toronto Blue Jays entered the second half of a season with this much hype.
The Jays set a franchise record for wins before the all-star break (55). And this is the first time they’ve held a division lead entering the second half since 2000.
Toronto has a tricky stretch right out of the gate, though, with 10 consecutive games against the Giants, Yankees and Tigers — three of the top 12 MLB teams based on current records.
San Francisco is built on stout pitching. The rotation is loaded with big-name vets, and Toronto will see three of them in this series. On the back end, the Giants have the lowest bullpen ERA in the majors (3.14).
Verlander has no-hit the Blue Jays twice at Rogers Centre (2011, 2019), but a lot has changed since then. The 42-year-old is labouring in what could be his final season, ranking in the bottom 25th percentile in xERA, xBA and barrel rate.
Bassitt has so-so numbers against the Giants’ lineup (.234 BA, .422 SLG in 64 at-bats), and his greatest nemesis is Devers. In past matchups vs. Bassitt, Devers is 8-for-17 with three home runs and two doubles.
Tommy John surgery derailed most of Ray’s past two seasons, but he’s back to pitching like the guy who won the 2021 AL Cy Young as a member of the Jays. The left-hander has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 19 of 20 starts this season, and San Francisco is 15-5 in his starts.
Lauer doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he’s hitting enough spots to skate by. He’s also an efficient strikeout generator, with 30 Ks over 24.2 innings in his past five matchups. The former first-round pick has a 2.91 FIP since joining the rotation for good on June 11.
Webb is a workhorse, tracking toward the NL innings lead for a third consecutive season. The Dodgers roughed up Webb in his final pre-all-star start (six runs in 5.1 innings), but he’d posted a 2.51 ERA in 12 outings before that.
It’s difficult to know what you’re getting from Berrios these days. In his past seven starts, he’s allowed one or zero runs four times … but he allowed 16 combined runs in the other three.
Who’s hot and who’s not
Nathan Lukes (OF): Lukes isn’t an everyday starter, which means his prop markets might come and go. But the left-hitting outfielder has made six starts as the leadoff man this month, and that’s something to watch for. Lukes has posted a .355/.444/.581 slash line in 11 games (eight starts) in July, scoring seven runs in the process.
Ernie Clement (INF): Clement has a 1.041 OPS vs. left-handed pitching and often finds himself in the leadoff spot when a southpaw is on the mound. That might not last, though, given how dreadful July has been for him (.178/.208/.222 slash line in 12 games). Clement is hitless in five of his past nine starts.
Willy Adames (INF): Year 1 of Adames’ seven-year, $182 million contract hasn’t been great. But he’s finally flashing some of the power that San Francisco thought it was acquiring. The shortstop is slugging .614 this month, collecting seven extra-base hits in 12 games. But he still owns just a 12th-percentile xBA (.226), per Baseball Savant.
Devers (DH): Devers came over to the Giants in what will likely be the biggest trade of 2025, but it’s not working out well so far. The full-time designated hitter is batting .202 with a .326 SLG in 25 games with his new team. On the bright side, he still ranks in the 88th percentile or better in xwOBA, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Blue Jays vs. Giants preview: Betting trends
Toronto has the 2nd-best run line record in MLB (55-41, 57.3%).
The Giants have the 4th-worst run line record (43-54, 44.3%).
Overs are 24-10-1 when the Giants are underdogs (1st in MLB).
Overs are 51-42-3 in Blue Jays games (3rd in MLB).
Adames has cashed his 1.5 total bases prop in 6 of 12 starts this month.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is averaging 1.7 total bases since June 1. But he only has four HRs in 33 games over that span.
After a four-day hiatus for the all-star break, MLB is back in action with a full slate of Friday games.
Today’s MLB narrative: The season’s second half begins with an afternoon showdown at Wrigley Field between the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs. In Toronto, the AL East-leading Blue Jays are favoured over the San Francisco Giants.
Check out the latest MLB odds for July 18 below.
MLB odds and betting insights
Trading away Rafael Devers made Boston look like a potential soft seller, but a recent resurgence has quashed that thought. The Red Sox are 12-1 since June 30 to move within 3.0 games of the division lead. Chicago is no slouch, though, holding down the second-best record in the NL. The Cubs are 14-5 in Colin Rea’s starts this year, and he’ll be on the mound for the North Siders.
San Diego’s Dylan Cease is looking to sharpen things up in the second half after going 1-4 with a 6.51 ERA in his past five outings. Cease has held Washington’s active lineup to a .186 BA and a .300 SLG in 70 at-bats.
What will the second half bring for the Blue Jays, who’ve vastly exceeded expectations so far? Toronto has -500 playoff odds, so this is no longer an underdog story. San Francisco is having a nice season, too, driven by a pitching staff with the third-lowest ERA in the majors.
Spencer Strider vs. the Yankees, anyone? Strider has had some bumps in the road this year, but he seemed to find himself in mid-June. Over his past six starts, Strider has a 2.95 ERA and a 12.3 K/9. The Yankees, meanwhile, have MLB’s highest wRC+ (120).
Has Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 2025 season been a success so far? It depends on who you ask — and what stats you’re looking at.
Guerrero started at first base for the AL in the All-Star Game, and he’s still putting a dent in the ball. But his power numbers have sagged considerably, which might seem concerning ahead of the $500 million extension that kicks in next year.
That said, there are far more reasons to be heartened than spooked by Guerrero’s batted-ball profile. And as the Toronto Blue Jays push for a playoff spot, Guerrero appears likely to do significant damage down the stretch in an attempt to power them there.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s power outage
Let’s get the bad out of the way with first.
Vladdy is on a 20-homer pace, which is 10 HRs off last year’s total. And it’s light years behind his AL-best 48 homers from that magical 2021 season.
His 13.0% HR-to-fly-ball rate this season is the second-lowest of his career. And his .157 ISO is a career low.
Guerrero is slugging .434 — that’s 110 points below last year’s mark. He posted a .512 SLG cumulatively from 2020-24.
The power outage isn’t merely a product of poorer results on balls in play, though. A major factor is that Guerrero is keeping the bat on his shoulder more than ever before.
He has a career-high 13.5% walk rate, ranking in the 92nd percentile in MLB, per Baseball Savant. Guerrero is also seeing more in-zone pitches than ever before (50.0%), but he’s swinging less than ever (41.5%).
For context, Guerrero’s career average swing rate is 47.8%. A dip of more than six percentage points is significant.
Interestingly, Guerrero’s results on his total bases prop haven’t suffered as much as you might think. He’s 45-49 (47.9%) on that market this year, after going 77-82 (48.4%) a season ago.
When Vladdy does opt to swing, he’s still tagging the ball routinely.
Just take a moment to marvel at his Baseball Savant player page (remember, dark red is really good):
Though he’s exceptionally disciplined at the plate — arguably to a fault — Guerrero swings with vicious aggression when he does see something he likes.
And though he doesn’t possess an elite sweet-spot rate (i.e., batted balls with a launch angle between 8-32 degrees), this year’s 33.4% mark is actually higher than his career average (32.0%).
Guerrero is also hitting fewer grounders than in past years, swapping them out for a career-high line drive rate.
Time frame
Ground ball%
Line drive%
Fly ball%
Pop up%
2025 season
47.4%
27.3%
20.1%
5.1%
Career
48.5%
24.9%
21.0%
5.5%
Unless you’re Luis Arraez or Jacob Wilson, the first step to success at the plate is hitting the ball hard.
That has never been an issue for Guerrero before, and it isn’t now. He might want to trade in some of those line drives for fly balls, but his overall profile is in a great spot.
Oppo power remains untapped
How many of Guerrero’s 12 homers do you think have gone to the opposite field?
The answer, amazingly, is zero.
Aside from one outlier, all of Guerrero’s homers in 2025 have come off pitches over the middle-third of the plate. Last year, his 30 HRs came from more varied locations (and eight of them went to right field):
The slugger’s selectivity is probably a factor here, but it also seems like he isn’t being properly rewarded when he does try to put a charge into an outer-third pitch.
According to Baseball Savant, Guerrero has a .358 SLG in his career on pitches located on the outer-third or off the plate.
This year, he has a .407 xSLG on pitches in those zones, but his actual SLG is just .262.
Pitchers are having more success than usual working away on Vladdy. But that might not last.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s second-half outlook
I could’ve written something similar to this at the 2024 all-star break.
Vlad Jr. entered the second half of last season with an .818 OPS, which is exactly where he sits right now.
Then he went on a rampage, posting a .376/.450/.678 slash line from July 19 through the end of the year.
It’d be difficult to project a repeat of those numbers, but it’s certainly possible.
FanGraphs’ Steamer projection system expects Guerrero to hit 12 home runs from this point forward — which would double his season total — while slugging .494 (60 points above his current mark).
Guerrero has grossly underperformed his expected metrics, so a healthy dose of positive regression would make sense.
Check out how Vladdy compares to some peers with a similar expected slugging percentage (with MLB ranks in parentheses):
Players
SLG
xSLG
Hard-hit%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
.434 (91st)
.518 (36th)
52.9% (21st)
Eugenio Suarez
.569 (5th)
.508 (44th)
50.0% (36th)
Kyle Tucker
.499 (28th)
.531 (31st)
42.7% (121st)
Riley Greene
.544 (13th)
.531 (32nd)
46.9% (66th)
Guerrero’s actual SLG (.434) is 84 points behind his xSLG (.518).
Among qualified hitters with a .400 SLG or better, that’s the eighth-greatest disparity in the league.
Also, Guerrero ranks 10th in xwOBA (.402). For context, that’s ahead of notable all-star sluggers such as James Wood, Cal Raleigh and Fernando Tatis Jr.
From a prop-betting perspective, Guerrero’s uptick in plate discipline might make him a better bet to score a run than to exceed 1.5 bases on any given night.
But as a hitter, he isn’t distinctly different from previous years.
The contact quality is still among the best in the game, and there’s clearly room for better results.
Has Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 2025 season been a success so far? It depends on who you ask — and what stats you’re looking at.
Guerrero started at first base for the AL in the All-Star Game, and he’s still putting a dent in the ball. But his power numbers have sagged considerably, which might seem concerning ahead of the $500 million extension that kicks in next year.
That said, there are far more reasons to be heartened than spooked by Guerrero’s batted-ball profile. And as the Toronto Blue Jays push for a playoff spot, Guerrero appears likely to do significant damage down the stretch in an attempt to power them there.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s power outage
Let’s get the bad out of the way with first.
Vladdy is on a 20-homer pace, which is 10 HRs off last year’s total. And it’s light years behind his AL-best 48 homers from that magical 2021 season.
His 13.0% HR-to-fly-ball rate this season is the second-lowest of his career. And his .157 ISO is a career low.
Guerrero is slugging .434 — that’s 110 points below last year’s mark. He posted a .512 SLG cumulatively from 2020-24.
The power outage isn’t merely a product of poorer results on balls in play, though. A major factor is that Guerrero is keeping the bat on his shoulder more than ever before.
He has a career-high 13.5% walk rate, ranking in the 92nd percentile in MLB, per Baseball Savant. Guerrero is also seeing more in-zone pitches than ever before (50.0%), but he’s swinging less than ever (41.5%).
For context, Guerrero’s career average swing rate is 47.8%. A dip of more than six percentage points is significant.
Interestingly, Guerrero’s results on his total bases prop haven’t suffered as much as you might think. He’s 45-49 (47.9%) on that market this year, after going 77-82 (48.4%) a season ago.
When Vladdy does opt to swing, he’s still tagging the ball routinely.
Just take a moment to marvel at his Baseball Savant player page (remember, dark red is really good):
Though he’s exceptionally disciplined at the plate — arguably to a fault — Guerrero swings with vicious aggression when he does see something he likes.
And though he doesn’t possess an elite sweet-spot rate (i.e., batted balls with a launch angle between 8-32 degrees), this year’s 33.4% mark is actually higher than his career average (32.0%).
Guerrero is also hitting fewer grounders than in past years, swapping them out for a career-high line drive rate.
Time frame
Ground ball%
Line drive%
Fly ball%
Pop up%
2025 season
47.4%
27.3%
20.1%
5.1%
Career
48.5%
24.9%
21.0%
5.5%
Unless you’re Luis Arraez or Jacob Wilson, the first step to success at the plate is hitting the ball hard.
That has never been an issue for Guerrero before, and it isn’t now. He might want to trade in some of those line drives for fly balls, but his overall profile is in a great spot.
How many of Guerrero’s 12 homers do you think have gone to the opposite field?
The answer, amazingly, is zero.
Aside from one outlier, all of Guerrero’s homers in 2025 have come off pitches over the middle-third of the plate. Last year, his 30 HRs came from more varied locations (and eight of them went to right field):
The slugger’s selectivity is probably a factor here, but it also seems like he isn’t being properly rewarded when he does try to put a charge into an outer-third pitch.
According to Baseball Savant, Guerrero has a .358 SLG in his career on pitches located on the outer-third or off the plate.
This year, he has a .407 xSLG on pitches in those zones, but his actual SLG is just .262.
Pitchers are having more success than usual working away on Vladdy. But that might not last.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s second-half outlook
I could’ve written something similar to this at the 2024 all-star break.
Vlad Jr. entered the second half of last season with an .818 OPS, which is exactly where he sits right now.
Then he went on a rampage, posting a .376/.450/.678 slash line from July 19 through the end of the year.
It’d be difficult to project a repeat of those numbers, but it’s certainly possible.
FanGraphs’ Steamer projection system expects Guerrero to hit 12 home runs from this point forward — which would double his season total — while slugging .494 (60 points above his current mark).
Guerrero has grossly underperformed his expected metrics, so a healthy dose of positive regression would make sense.
Check out how Vladdy compares to some peers with a similar expected slugging percentage (with MLB ranks in parentheses):
Players
SLG
xSLG
Hard-hit%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
.434 (91st)
.518 (36th)
52.9% (21st)
Eugenio Suarez
.569 (5th)
.508 (44th)
50.0% (36th)
Kyle Tucker
.499 (28th)
.531 (31st)
42.7% (121st)
Riley Greene
.544 (13th)
.531 (32nd)
46.9% (66th)
Guerrero’s actual SLG (.434) is 84 points behind his xSLG (.518).
Among qualified hitters with a .400 SLG or better, that’s the eighth-greatest disparity in the league.
Also, Guerrero ranks 10th in xwOBA (.402). For context, that’s ahead of notable all-star sluggers such as James Wood, Cal Raleigh and Fernando Tatis Jr.
From a prop-betting perspective, Guerrero’s uptick in plate discipline might make him a better bet to score a run than to exceed 1.5 bases on any given night.
But as a hitter, he isn’t distinctly different from previous years.
The contact quality is still among the best in the game, and there’s clearly room for better results.
Week 7 of the CFL season features a trio of matchups we’ve already seen before, including a compelling test for the Calgary Stampeders on the road against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
The pregame narrative: On Saturday, the BC Lions look to avenge a previous blowout loss against the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Then on Sunday, the four-game slate wraps up with the second leg of a home-and-home between the slumping Ottawa Redblacks and the rolling Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
Check out the latest CFL Week 7 predictions for the games beginning Thursday, July 17.
CFL Week 7 predictions
Best bet: Stampeders +4.5 (-114)
Calgary was dealt a tough hand by the scheduling gods (and weather gods) this week, which is the only reason this line makes any amount of sense.
Air quality concerns prompted the Stampeders’ Week 6 game in Saskatchewan to be rescheduled from Friday to Saturday, turning this into a short week for Calgary.
While the Stamps have only had five days of rest, the post-bye Bombers haven’t played since July 3.
Of course, that Week 5 matchup was a Calgary/Winnipeg showdown, and the Stampeders dominated at home in a 37-16 win.
Calgary’s No. 1 scoring defence turned Winnipeg over twice on interceptions and twice on downs.
The Stamps allow the fewest passing yards per attempt (6.88), which made things difficult for the Blue Bombers’ pass-heavy approach.
Offensively, Vernon Adams Jr. had a solid night (13 for 18, 222 yards and two TDs) to fuel the No. 2 total offence in the CFL.
Calgary (4-1) already has four straight-up wins as an underdog this season. This is a really good team that’s worth backing with points, no matter what the rest discrepancy is.
And keep in mind that Dalton Schoen, Winnipeg’s top receiving threat, was a non-participant in practice on Monday and Tuesday. His absence would be a significant loss for the Bombers.
Key stat: Calgary is 4-1 ATS this season and 4-1 ATS in its past five matchups vs. Winnipeg (since August 2023).
Roughriders moneyline (-115): BC earned some respect with a one-point road win at Montreal a couple of weeks ago. But that doesn’t wash away the bludgeoning it took in Saskatchewan back in Week 4.
The Roughriders forced four turnovers in a 37-18 victory. And sure, Lions quarterback Nathan Rourke was absent for that game, but so was Riders QB1 Trevor Harris.
Harris is coming off a monster passing game (36 for 44, 425 yards and one TD) against a tough Calgary defence. That matters with another stout defence on the schedule this week.
Dating back to last fall, the Riders are 3-0 SU and ATS vs. the Lions. In my view, BC has dominated Edmonton twice this season to pad its stats while accomplishing little else.
Tiger-Cats moneyline (-122): Hamilton beat Ottawa last Saturday, 23-20, and I think the Ti-Cats can double down with another victory in Week 7.
The Tiger-Cats have the best player in this game, receiver Kenny Lawler, and that’s always a good place to start.
Lawler has 30 catches, 578 yards and seven TDs through five games. It’s early, but the former Cal wideout is on pace to set the CFL’s single-season receiving TD record.
Hamilton (3-2) has won three in a row to move into a tie atop the East Division. Ottawa (1-5) has lost three in a row to sink to the basement.
Redblacks QB Dru Brown has some juice, but he might be a bit too erratic. The Ti-Cats picked off Brown twice last week and also sacked him twice.
CFL Week 7 predictions as of 10:30 a.m. on 07/16/2025.
