Coming out of the four-day all-star break, the Toronto Blue Jays are home to face the San Francisco Giants for a weekend series.
The AL East is tightening up, with four teams playing above-.500 ball. Toronto (55-41) leads the pack thanks to a recent 10-game win streak and will look to start strong with a homestand at Rogers Centre.
Check out our Blue Jays vs. Giants preview for the July 18-20 series, highlighting the starting pitching matchups, betting trends and more.
Blue Jays vs. Giants preview
It’s been a while since the Toronto Blue Jays entered the second half of a season with this much hype.
The Jays set a franchise record for wins before the all-star break (55). And this is the first time they’ve held a division lead entering the second half since 2000.
Toronto has a tricky stretch right out of the gate, though, with 10 consecutive games against the Giants, Yankees and Tigers — three of the top 12 MLB teams based on current records.
San Francisco is built on stout pitching. The rotation is loaded with big-name vets, and Toronto will see three of them in this series. On the back end, the Giants have the lowest bullpen ERA in the majors (3.14).
Starting pitcher matchups
July 18: RHP Justin Verlander (0-7, 4.81 ERA) vs. RHP Chris Bassitt (9-4, 4.12 ERA)
- Verlander has no-hit the Blue Jays twice at Rogers Centre (2011, 2019), but a lot has changed since then. The 42-year-old is labouring in what could be his final season, ranking in the bottom 25th percentile in xERA, xBA and barrel rate.
- Bassitt has so-so numbers against the Giants’ lineup (.234 BA, .422 SLG in 64 at-bats), and his greatest nemesis is Devers. In past matchups vs. Bassitt, Devers is 8-for-17 with three home runs and two doubles.
July 19: LHP Robbie Ray (9-3, 2.65 ERA) vs. LHP Eric Lauer (4-2, 2.78 ERA)
- Tommy John surgery derailed most of Ray’s past two seasons, but he’s back to pitching like the guy who won the 2021 AL Cy Young as a member of the Jays. The left-hander has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 19 of 20 starts this season, and San Francisco is 15-5 in his starts.
- Lauer doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he’s hitting enough spots to skate by. He’s also an efficient strikeout generator, with 30 Ks over 24.2 innings in his past five matchups. The former first-round pick has a 2.91 FIP since joining the rotation for good on June 11.
July 20: RHP Logan Webb (9-6, 2.94 ERA) vs. RHP Jose Berrios (5-4, 3.75 ERA)
- Webb is a workhorse, tracking toward the NL innings lead for a third consecutive season. The Dodgers roughed up Webb in his final pre-all-star start (six runs in 5.1 innings), but he’d posted a 2.51 ERA in 12 outings before that.
- It’s difficult to know what you’re getting from Berrios these days. In his past seven starts, he’s allowed one or zero runs four times … but he allowed 16 combined runs in the other three.
Who’s hot and who’s not
Nathan Lukes (OF): Lukes isn’t an everyday starter, which means his prop markets might come and go. But the left-hitting outfielder has made six starts as the leadoff man this month, and that’s something to watch for. Lukes has posted a .355/.444/.581 slash line in 11 games (eight starts) in July, scoring seven runs in the process.
Ernie Clement (INF): Clement has a 1.041 OPS vs. left-handed pitching and often finds himself in the leadoff spot when a southpaw is on the mound. That might not last, though, given how dreadful July has been for him (.178/.208/.222 slash line in 12 games). Clement is hitless in five of his past nine starts.
Willy Adames (INF): Year 1 of Adames’ seven-year, $182 million contract hasn’t been great. But he’s finally flashing some of the power that San Francisco thought it was acquiring. The shortstop is slugging .614 this month, collecting seven extra-base hits in 12 games. But he still owns just a 12th-percentile xBA (.226), per Baseball Savant.
Devers (DH): Devers came over to the Giants in what will likely be the biggest trade of 2025, but it’s not working out well so far. The full-time designated hitter is batting .202 with a .326 SLG in 25 games with his new team. On the bright side, he still ranks in the 88th percentile or better in xwOBA, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Blue Jays vs. Giants preview: Betting trends
- Toronto has the 2nd-best run line record in MLB (55-41, 57.3%).
- The Giants have the 4th-worst run line record (43-54, 44.3%).
- Overs are 24-10-1 when the Giants are underdogs (1st in MLB).
- Overs are 51-42-3 in Blue Jays games (3rd in MLB).
- Adames has cashed his 1.5 total bases prop in 6 of 12 starts this month.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is averaging 1.7 total bases since June 1. But he only has four HRs in 33 games over that span.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.