Avery Perri

The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets meet for a series-deciding matinee at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: This is a big game for New York, which is tied for the National League’s final wild-card spot. The Mets will start Sean Manaea opposite Toronto’s Bowden Francis and I expect them to keep scoring low.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Mets on Sept. 11.

Blue Jays picks vs. Mets

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Best Bet: Francis over 17.5 outs (-114)

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I understand the Mets are running hot but this line seems low.

Francis is only a week removed from winning August’s AL Pitcher of the Month honours after posting a 1.06 ERA and 10.32 K/9 rate across five starts. He cleared this line four times, including throwing 8.0 hitless innings against the Los Angeles Angels with 12 strikeouts.

The third-year righty came back down to earth to begin September but still logged a quality start — 6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER — against the Philadelphia Phillies.

All in all, Francis has cleared this line in five straight outings while holding opponents to a .103 batting average and .216 SLG.

New York is 11-4 in its last 15 games but that’s been largely thanks to elite pitching.

During that run the Mets rank a pedestrian 18th in wRC+ (95) and 20th in batting average (.232). Chris Bassitt threw 6.0 innings against them yesterday and Toronto had a bullpen game against them the game before that.

Nine different Jays relievers have combined 12.0 innings in the last two days. They could use a rest and Francis is capable of pitching deep into ballgames.

Key stat: Francis is averaging 21.0 outs across his last five starts.

Quick pick

Under 8 runs (-115): I think Francis will be dealing and that makes the under a nice complimentary play.

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Toronto has gone under this line in each of his last five starts, with no game having more than six runs scored.

On the other side, Manaea should do enough to keep the Jays’ bats in check. The lefty owns a 3.43 ERA on the season and has logged five quality starts in his last eight appearances (2.81 ERA in that span).

Toronto hasn’t hit lefties well all season but it’s not worth looking at any of the team’s stats from before the all-star game. Isolated from there onwards, the Jays rank 22nd in wRC+ (93) and 21st in batting average (.230) versus LHP.

Picks made at 8:21 a.m. on 09/11/24.

A trio of big names headline Sunday’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Jack Flaherty and Gerrit Cole are both pitching and I like each to have strong outings against the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago Cubs, respectively. Elsewhere, Bobby Witt Jr. is a good bet to score.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 8.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Flaherty over 17.5 outs (-152)

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Giving out a -152 best bet might seem like nasty work but the Dodgers need a deep outing from Flaherty today.

L.A. was forced into a bullpen game yesterday after Gavin Stone picked up an injury during the week. Seven relievers pitched one or more innings in a 7-3 victory.

Flaherty has had a solid year (3.01 ERA) and is living around this total since he joined the Dodgers on Aug. 6. In six starts with L.A., he’s cleared this line twice while landing on exactly 17 outs (5.2 IP) three other times.

The veteran righty has thrown north of 92 pitches in eight straight starts and is capable of having a workhorse-like outing against the struggling Guardians.

Cleveland has a formidable offence but it’s slumping at the moment. The team ranks 26th in wRC+ (90) and batting average (.226) versus righties over the last 30 days.

Flaherty has seen plenty of the Guards from his days with the Detroit Tigers and the results are favourable.

Key stat: Flaherty has cleared this total in four straight starts versus the Guardians and has held their lineup to a collective .226 batting average in 93 plate appearances.

Quick picks

Cole over 6.5 strikeouts (+120): I’ll go ahead and say it … Cole is back.

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The reigning AL Cy Young winner put a rocky start behind him and owns a 1.85 ERA across six outings since Aug. 1. He owns a 10.6 K/9 in that span and has cleared this total four times, most recently fanning nine Texans in 6.0 innings.

The swing-and-miss stuff is coming back and that should scare the rest of MLB.

Cole’s 26.7% K rate ranks in Baseball Savant’s 77th percentile. The Cubs are a middle-of-the-pack team for both K and whiff rate, which doesn’t concern me.

The Yankees ace has a 25.0% K rate in 68 plate appearances against the Cubs’ current lineup.

Witt to score (-121): If Aaron Judge didn’t exist, Witt would be pounding on the AL MVP door.

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He’s in the midst of one of the best-ever seasons for a shortstop and is leading MLB in batting average (.336), hits (191) and runs (118).

That alone could be the sell, but Witt has a favourable matchup coming his way, too.

The Minnesota Twins are trotting out Simeon Woods Richardson, who has a 5.79 ERA across his last seven starts.

Kansas City’s leadoff man should do damage.

Picks made at 9:48 a.m. ET on 09/08/2024.

I’ve got three prop recommendations for Saturday’s MLB slate.

The pregame narrative: Logan Gilbert is going up against a plucky St. Louis Cardinals offence but he still should clear a modest strikeout total. Elsewhere, I’m backing Spencer Torkelson and fading Elly De La Cruz.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 7.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Gilbert over 5.5 strikeouts (-134)

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My first thought when I saw Gilbert was playing the Cards was to fade his strikeout total.

St. Louis has the 11th-lowest K rate in baseball (21.6%) and the fifth-lowest K rate against righties since the all-star break (19.9%). But then I looked to see what the line was and saw it at 5.5, which was much lower than I imagined.

Gilbert is a bonafide stud and one of the better swing-and-miss arms out there.

He’s cleared this line in six straight games and 10 of his last 11, ranking in Baseball Savant’s 76th percentile for K rate (26.5%).

I don’t care how disciplined the Cardinals are — if his line is set this low I’m going to take it.

The righty employs a five-pitch mix and has some of the nastiest breaking stuff in the game. His fastball averages at 97 miles-per-hour and his +12 breaking run value is in the 98th percentile.

St. Louis is great at making contact with fastballs but struggles mightily on anything that breaks. Its 34.3% whiff rate against those pitches is the fifth highest in baseball.

Key stat: Gilbert is 21-7 against this line in 2024.

Quick picks

Torkelson over 1.5 bases (+114): Torkelson returned from the IL halfway through August and put up an impressive .306/.368/.577 slash line that month.

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He’s hit the ditch since, batting .100 through five games in September but I believe he’s due.

Torkelson does his best work against left-handed pitching and is slugging .842 with a 225 wRC+ against southpaws over the last 30 days. On the season, he’s slugging .578 against lefties and .309 against righties.

Today he goes up against Brady Basso and the Oakland Athletics. Basso is making his second career MLB start after posting an underwhelming 5.19 ERA in Triple-A.

The 26-year-old gave up plenty of hard contact in the minors (2.0 HR/9) and that bodes well for Torkelson.

De La Cruz under 0.5 runs (-127): Fading De La Cruz is risky business but this seems like a nice spot to do it.

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The 22-year-old switch hitter struggles mightily to hit left-handed pitching with a .223 batting average and .303 OBP.

He goes up against Jose Quintana who has put together back-to-back solid starts, giving up one earned run in 5.0 IP against the Chicago White Sox after throwing six scoreless innings against the San Diego Padres.

De La Cruz is 1-for-6 lifetime against Quintana and has been held hitless in three of his last six games.

Picks made at 10:39 a.m. ET on 09/07/2024.

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The Toronto Blue Jays aim to snap a four-game losing streak today when they play the Atlanta Braves.

The pregame narrative: Jose Berrios and Spencer Schwellenbach take the mound for Toronto and Atlanta, respectively, and both have been in a groove. I expect them to keep scoring low and am taking the over on Berrios’ strikeout total.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Braves on Sept. 7.

Blue Jays picks vs. Braves

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Best Bet: Under 8.5 runs (-115)

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Toronto’s offence was on a roll in August but it’s slowed down outside of a few standout performances.

The Jays scored 15 runs against the Minnesota Twins last week and hung nine on the Philadelphia Phillies in a loss on Tuesday.

But both of those games were against unproven rookies — Tyler Phillips and Zebby Matthews — and Toronto has failed to score four runs in seven straight otherwise.

Schwellenbach is also a rookie but he’s no joke.

The 24-year-old righty owns a respectable 3.69 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 16 starts. He’s really found something lately, with a 2.57 ERA and 12.8 K/9 across his last seven. Schwellenbach has held three consecutive opponents (Philadelphia Phillies twice, Minnesota Twins) under three runs.

He has the stuff to keep Toronto’s bats at bay and I like Berrios’ chances of doing the same to Atlanta.

The Braves have been ravaged by injuries this season and are missing Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Ozzie Albies. That immediately takes a lot of pop out of a once formidable lineup.

Berrios has had an up-and-down season but he’s logged six quality starts in his last seven outings and has a 2.31 ERA in that span.

He most recently threw six shutout innings against the Twins while allowing just four baserunners.

I’m happy to fade scoring with two solid arms on the mound and two below-average offences at the plate.

Key stat: Toronto has gone under this number in six of its last eight games.

Quick picks

Berrios over 4.5 strikeouts (-136): Berrios doesn’t have elite swing-and-miss stuff but this seems like a manageable line.

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He’s gone over this total in eight straight starts, logging six-plus Ks in half of those outings.

The Braves are one of the more undisciplined teams in baseball, owning the 10th-highest chase rate (29.4%) and 10th-lowest chase contact rate (54.6%).

They also have the fourth-highest whiff rate (27.9%) and seventh-highest K rate (24.5%). All of that is to say Atlanta is pretty bad at putting the bat on the ball.

Berrios pitches deep into ball games and that should give him plenty of opportunities to pile up punchouts.

Picks made at 9:24 a.m. on 09/07/24.