Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.
Kyle Tucker and Corbin Burnes headline today’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Tucker is back from the IL and is primed to mash against a pitcher he’s dominated in the past. Burnes was slumping in August but has turned a corner and should pitch deep into his start against the Detroit Tigers.
Houston’s slugger demolished lefties last season, posting a .300/.367/.567 slash line in 210 plate appearances. This year hasn’t been quite the same.
Tucker is batting .209 against southpaws in 2024 and is .154 since returning from the IL earlier this month.
That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement but tonight presents a perfect opportunity for some positive regression. He faces a struggling Tyler Anderson who gets the ball for the Los Angeles Angels.
Anderson has a 5.40 ERA across his last seven outings and has routinely been lit up by Tucker and the Houston Astros.
Tucker is 7-for-12 against Anderson with a double, two triples, and a home run.
And it’s not like Tucker is completely floundering at the plate. He has a hit in three straight games with one going for extra bases and is batting .263 in August.
This is a player who is in MVP conversations when healthy. Now that he’s got a handful of games under his belt I expect him to heat up heading into the postseason.
Key stat: Anderson has a 4.67 ERA at home this season and has given up 14 earned runs in his last three starts at Angel Stadium.
Quick picks
Burnes over 17.5 outs (-150): A -150 price tag isn’t pretty but this is a rare case where I believe it’s well worth it.
Burnes was right in the mix for the AL Cy Young award before falling apart in August.
The first year Baltimore Oriole brought a 2.47 ERA into that month and raised it to 3.23 after a string of bad starts.
But he’s looked good in September, giving up one earned run to the Chicago White Sox in 5.0 IP and two earned runs to the Tampa Bay Rays in 6.0 IP.
The Tigers are running hot but aren’t a good team offensively. They rank 21st in batting average (.235) with the eighth-highest K rate (24.1%) against righties.
Burnes has cleared this line in 21 of 29 of his starts.
Diaz over 1.5 bases (-106): Yandy Diaz has murdered lefties this year and today he goes up against a struggling rookie.
Joey Cantillo has a 6.38 ERA for the Cleveland Guardians in five career major-league starts. That’s not a huge sample but the southpaw also posted an underwhelming 4.54 ERA in the minors this season.
Diaz is batting .347 against lefties with a 165 wRC+.
He also has a hit in five straight games, clearing this line three times.
The Toronto Blue Jays and St. Louis Cardinals are back at it for an afternoon game at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: Alejandro Kirk played hero when the Blue Jays walked off the Cardinals last night. Today, I’m looking to back Jose Berrios and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Check out the best Blue Jays props vs. the Cardinals on Sept. 14.
There is some juice to contend with here but I believe it’s worth the squeeze.
Berrios has steadied the ship after a tough start to the season. He has a 2.36 ERA since the start of August and has recorded five-plus strikeouts in all seven of those starts.
He’s averaging 20.3 outs in that span which is roughly 6.2 IP. Berrios isn’t an elite swing-and-miss guy by any means but working deep into ballgames gives him a better chance of racking up Ks.
The Cardinals managed to keep Kevin Gausman to just three strikeouts in 7.0 IP yesterday but his K rate has fallen off a cliff.
Berrios has seen parts of this Cardinals lineup a few times and the results speak for themselves.
In 26 combined plate appearances, he has a monster 46.2% K rate, according to Baseball Savant. That includes striking out Paul Goldschmidt six times in nine at-bats and Brendan Donovan three times in six at-bats.
He should be able to clear this modest total.
Key stat: Berrios recorded seven strikeouts the last two times he played the Cards (both in 2022).
Quick pick
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (-106): We might be running the risk of sounding like a broken record over here … but Vladdy is really, really good.
In his last 70 games, he’s hitting .361 with a 1.116 OPS. He has 50 extra-base hits in that span and went 1-for-4 last night with a double.
He’s having a mini-slump this month, if you can even call it that, batting .270 across nine games. But he’s still got a hit in seven of those contests and has cleared this line three times.
Tonight’s matchup against St. Louis starter Kyle Gibson should be favourable.
The righty has a 4.20 ERA and ranks in the bottom-third percentile for xERA, xBA, barrel rate and fastball velocity (90.9 mph).
Vladdy is batting .402 with a .632 xSLG against fastballs under 93 mph and is 5-for-14 with a double against Gibson.
The Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs lock horns for America’s Game of the Week.
The pregame narrative: The Bengals were the biggest ATS favourites in Week 1 and lost. I’m backing the Chiefs to win and cover an alternate spread alongside two player props on Travis Kelce and Zack Moss
Check out our Bengals vs. Chiefs predictions for the matchup on Sept. 15.
Joe Burrow has lost his last three opening-week games and has never won in Week 2. Starting seasons slow has become an epidemic in the Queen City and now the Bengals have to travel to Arrowhead to take on the defending champs.
Sure, Burrow is about the only AFC quarterback to have Patrick Mahomes’ number, but he looked really shaky last weekend.
The 2020 No. 1 pick threw for just 164 yards and took three sacks in a shocking loss to the New England Patriots.
Add in the fact that Tee Higgins is doubtful and I think it could be another tough day.
SGP legs
Kelce over 44.5 receiving yards (-190): Kelce took a back seat in KC’s opening night win but let’s not forget who we’re dealing with here.
The future Hall of Famer averaged 70.5 receiving yards per game across 19 regular season and playoff games in 2023. He cleared this line in 13 of those contests.
Kelce was held to just three catches for 16 yards against the Bengals on New Year’s Eve but he went over this mark in three straight against them before that.
Cincinnati allowed the second-most yards per game to tight ends last season, per Pro Football Reference.
Moss over 47.5 rushing yards (-118): Cincinnati’s game script wasn’t favourable for Moss last Sunday but the running back still turned nine carries into 44 yards and a score.
I think Kansas City will win and that should mean more passing than running for the Bengals, but Moss’ efficiency is encouraging nonetheless.
The former Buffalo Bill churned out a respectable 4.3 yards per carry last year and was at 4.9 against the Patriots. He also out-snapped backup RB Chase Brown 33-to-17 and had nine carries to Brown’s three.
The Chiefs’ run defence looked great against the Baltimore Ravens in the season opener but was actually a weak point during the 2023 campaign. KC was middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed per game and ranked 28th in defensive rush EPA per play.
This is a very manageable line for the team’s clear RB1.
Cooper Kupp and Sam LaPorta headline these NFL Week 2 TD picks.
The pregame narrative: Kupp turned back the clock for a vintage performance in Week 1 and I expect him to terrorize the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Elsewhere, back Sam LaPorta in a juicy matchup and take a plus-money swing at … Daniel Jones.
Check out the best NFL Week 2 TD picks for the upcoming games.
The veteran wide-out looked like the 2021 version of himself last weekend when he caught 14 passes for 110 yards in a losing effort against the Detroit Lions. Kupp’s 21 targets and 14 receptions were by far the most of any receiver in Week 1.
Kupp also had three red zone targets in that game.
The Rams will be short-staffed with Puka Nacua sidelined and that should only work in Kupp’s favour.
Nacua had 160 targets last season and turned that into 1,486 yards. That production has to go somewhere, and Sean McVay made it clear where it’s heading.
You could argue that will allow the Cardinals to simplify their game plan and double-team Kupp, but the Lions weren’t able to do that and their defence is far better than Arizona’s.
The Cards ranked 31st in defensive EPA per play last season, per RBSDM.com, and were 31st in Week 1 as well.
This game has all the makings of a shootout and that type of script is benificial.
Key stat: Arizona allowed the third-most receiving touchdowns (32) in 2023.
Quick picks
Laporta anytime TD (+106): Sunday’s matchup between the Lions and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers features the highest projected total (51.0) of any game. That should be a TD bettor’s dream.
Both of Detroit’s tailbacks — Jamhyr Gibbs and David Montgomery — hold juiced-up odds to score, so I’m looking elsewhere for value.
LaPorta broke out in a big way last season. His 15 red zone targets were the fourth-most among all tight ends and he turned nearly half of those into touchdowns (seven).
His 10 total touchdowns were four more than any other TE.
The Buccaneers laid a beating on the Washington Commanders in Week 1 but their defence looked shaky, ranking 27th in EPA per play.
Detroit hung 31 points on them in the divisional round last year in a game where LaPorta caught nine of 11 targets for 65 yards. He didn’t score but should feature heavily once again.
Jones to score (+170): You’re probably looking at this bet and thinking: “Wow, what a sick individual.”
You’re right, I am. Jones is awful, but he’s potentially playing for his job this weekend and I expect him to put his body on the line against the Washington Commanders.
Washington’s defence is among the worst in football and Jones has consistently carved his divisional rivals on the ground.
He didn’t play the Commanders last year but had nine-plus carries against them in each of his three prior meetings, averaging 67.0 rushing yards and scoring one touchdown.
We’re also only two seasons removed from Jones scoring seven rushing TDs. Plug your nose and just go with it.
I’m targeting two running backs and two receivers in these NFL Week 2 prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Derrick Henry didn’t do much in his Baltimore Ravens debut but is primed for a breakout. Elsewhere, Chris Godwin should rack up receptions against the Detroit Lions while a pair of Los Angeles Chargers players have my attention.
Check out the best NFL Week 2 prop bets for the upcoming games.
The Ravens abandoned the run game against Kansas City … again.
Henry turned five carries into 17 yards and a touchdown in Baltimore’s opening drive but only toted the ball three more times in the first half and eight more times in the game.
He ended with a lacklustre 13 carries for 46 yards (3.5 YPC). Maybe John Harbaugh will never learn.
Either way, Henry should have a much better game script against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Ravens ran the ball down lesser opponents’ throats in 2023 and the Raiders are certainly a lesser opponent.
Las Vegas gave up 176 rushing yards on 6.5 YPC to a backfield comprised of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, two former Ravens, in Week 1.
Baltimore averaged a league-best 156.5 rushing yards per game during the 2023 season and had the third-best rushing EPA per play (+0.009), per RBSDM.com.
Justice Hill only received one carry in the opener so this is firmly Henry’s backfield. I expect Baltimore to take an early lead and lean on the run game.
Key stat: Henry had the second-most rushing yards last season (1,167).
Quick picks
Dobbins over 55.5 rushing yards (-113): You could probably talk me into any Chargers prop considering they’re playing the Carolina Panthers but this is the first (of two) that stuck out to me.
Dobbins was explosive but oft-injured in his Ravens career. He showed his big-play ability on Sunday, rushing for 135 yards on 10 carries in his L.A. debut. Even if you take away his 61-yard scramble, he still netted 74 yards at 8.2 per carry.
Compare that to Edwards, who had 26 yards on 11 touches, and we might see the timeshare shift in Dobbins’ favour.
Carolina gave up 180 rushing yards in Week 1 and just lost standout defensive tackle Derrick Brown for the season. The Chargers should roll, and Dobbins should be key.
McConkey over 43.5 receiving yards (-113): I don’t just expect L.A. to rumble on the ground.
Ladd McConkey had a solid NFL debut, catching five of seven targets for 39 yards and a touchdown. Both of those were team highs.
Second-year receiver Quentin Johnston’s drop problem reared its head again and I think patience is running thin with him and Justin Herbert.
McConkey should have plenty of targets against an awful defence.
Godwin over 5.5 receptions (+115): Godwin hauled in all eight of his targets in Week 1 for 83 yards and a score. Granted, that was against the lowly Washington Commanders, but I still want to get in on the action.
The speedy slot receiver has become a favourite of quarterback Baker Mayfield and his 130 targets in 2023 were second to only Mike Evans (136).
Godwin was looked at plenty in Tampa Bay’s divisional-round loss to the Lions, though he only caught 4-of-8 passes. Evans stole the show with eight receptions for 147 yards and Dan Campbell should emphasize slowing him down.
Last week, Cooper Kupp feasted from the slot against the Lions, with 14 receptions and 110 yards. I expect Godwin to have a solid day from the same position.
Every year, hundreds of Division I programs and thousands of players compete in a season-long quest for glory.
The season culminates in a crescendo of chaos known as March Madness. It’s a three-week tournament where the country’s top 68 teams battle for national title rights.
-> New to NCAA Basketball wagering? Sign up at NorthStar Betsto get the latest odds, insights and betting tools throughout the season
-> New to NCAA Basketball wagering? Sign up at NorthStar Betsto get the latest odds, insights and betting tools throughout the season
The typical collegiate season is populated with mini-tournaments, conference games and non-conference marquee matchups. Luckily for sports bettors, there are opportunities to wager on all of these events.
How to bet on college basketball
If you’re wondering how to bet on college basketball, you’ve come to the right place.
While it may seem like there’s an overwhelming amount of options to choose from, this article will break down the best ways to find value within the college basketball landscape.
-> Before you get started, create your NorthStar Bets account to explore live odds and daily NCAA Basketball markets
-> Before you get started, create your NorthStar Bets accountto explore live odds and daily NCAA Basketball markets
Moneyline
A moneyline bet is simple: pick the team that you think will win the game. You’ll win your bet if you make the correct prediction.
Moneyline (or “ML,” for short) betting is more popular in lower-scoring sports such as hockey or baseball, but there are still plenty of opportunities to place this type of wager in college basketball.
Each team is assigned a set of odds. The underdog is labelled with a plus (+) sign and the favourite will have a minus (-) sign before its odds. The team that’s favoured is the side projected to have a greater chance of winning.
A -200 favourite has a 66.7% implied probability of winning, while a -400 favourite sits at 80.0%.
With hundreds of games to choose from, there will surely be options to find more level picks on the moneyline. A matchup may feature a -130 favourite and a +110 underdog.
-> Want to see current NCAA Basketball moneyline prices? Check the latest at NorthStar Bets
-> Want to see current NCAA Basketball moneyline prices? Check the latest at NorthStar Bets
You will, however, find severely lopsided ML matchups in college basketball due to the large gap in talent between top-end teams and lower-end programs.
For example: If Gonzaga, a national powerhouse, were to play Pepperdine, a smaller school, Gonzaga could be upwards of -1,500 on the moneyline. That would mean the Bulldogs had a 93.75% implied probability of winning.
Gonzaga is a mainstay in the NCAA tournament. Photo by Isaac Hale/AP.
Pepperdine would be around +900 to win in that hypothetical scenario. Neither would necessarily be attractive betting options. In short, Pepperdine is almost certainly going to lose, and you’d have to wager $1,500 on Gonzaga to win $100.
For matchups like that, point spread betting is often the smarter play.
Here are some examples of moneyline wagers and what you could win based on the odds and how much you wagered:
Odds
Wager
Win
-110
$100
$100
-1,000
$1,000
$100
+900
$100
$900
Point spread
Point spread betting is the most popular way to bet on college basketball. It provides an opportunity to get in on an uneven matchup at relatively even odds.
Sportsbooks assign a point spread to the favourite, signalling this by placing a minus (-) sign next to the number of points they need to win by. The underdog will have a plus (+) sign next to the same number.
Using the above example, it’s clear that Pepperdine would be underdogs, and Gonzaga could be something like 26.5-point favourites.
The line would look like this:
Gonzaga -26.5 (-110) vs. Pepperdine +26.5 (-110).
If you bet on Gonzaga, the Bulldogs would need to win by 27 points or more. On the other hand, a Pepperdine bettor would cash their ticket if the Waves won outright or lost by 26 points or fewer.
For the most part, books set the point spread odds at -110 on each side. That means a $110 bet wins $100. The $10 difference, known as the juice, is the cut the sportsbook takes from each bet.
There are several factors you should consider when wagering on the point spread, including game location, injuries and recent results.
There’s also an option to raise or lower the spread. These are called alternative spreads and they can help a bettor find more value.
For example, let’s say LSU is playing at Alabama, and the Crimson Tide are listed as 6.5-point favourites. If you believe Alabama is going to blow out LSU, you could increase the line and take the team at -9.5 on an alt spread.
As a result, this would change your odds from -110 to around +140. You could also move the line to -3.5, which would produce odds of around -180 because your chances of winning would be deemed more likely to happen.
-> Ready to try spread betting?Join NorthStar Bets and explore live, moving lines daily
-> Ready to try spread betting? Join NorthStar Bets and explore live, moving lines daily
Totals
If you want to bet on a game but aren’t comfortable picking a team to cover, you can bet on the total. Also known as the over/under or O/U, you are betting on the total amount of points scored in a contest.
Totals in college basketball can vary based on competition, ranging from 120 points to 150-plus.
Using the LSU vs. Alabama example, we can assume that two high-scoring teams would have their O/U set near 142.5. To successfully bet the over in this game, a combined 143 points or more need to be scored for the ticket to cash.
For anyone who took the under instead, 142 points or fewer means you win the bet.
Some important context in over/under betting includes how often the teams foul, prior matchup history, and each team’s offensive and defensive pace.
Similar to the point spread, bettors have the option to choose alternate totals when betting on college basketball.
Sticking with Alabama and LSU, one could choose an alternate line of 137.5 points. If you believed the match was going to be a defensive battle, this could be a good option, as the under could now pay something in the range of +175, while the value of betting the over might shift to -250.
One of the main differences between college hoops and the NBA is that the game is split into two 20-minute halves rather than four quarters of play. This makes first-half betting a popular market for college basketball enthusiasts.
First-half betting mostly follows the same rules of the moneyline, point spread and total markets.
Typically, the first-half moneyline would reflect the normal moneyline, with maybe a slight variance. A -190 moneyline favourite might have -220 odds to win the first half.
One wrinkle with first-half moneylines: If the score is tied after 20 minutes, the bet is considered a “push.” This means neither side wins and your stake is returned.
That’s not how it works for more point spread and totals wagers, though.
If the point spread for a Duke vs. Wake Forest game is set at Duke -10.5, the first-half spread may sit around -5.5. If Wake Forest is a notoriously strong starter, or if Duke is prone to sleepy first-half results, then taking the Demon Deacons at +5.5 could be a good play.
The same idea applies to totals. If a full game O/U between Michigan and Wisconsin is 126.5, the first half O/U may be set at 62.5.
How to bet college basketball parlays
A parlay is a unique way of combining multiple single bets into one larger wager to obtain a bigger payout, while also assuming more risk. Each additional bet is known as a leg and all legs need to win in order to cash the parlay. The entire ticket loses if one of the legs is incorrect.
Parlays begin with two legs but can have three, four, five, or more selections added to the ticket.
You can combine moneylines, totals and spreads on parlays and even mix and match sports.
An example of a college basketball parlay would be:
Alabama -6.5 (-110) Duke vs. UNC alternate over 140.5 (-130) Seton Hall ML (+230)
This would produce combined odds of +886, meaning you would net $886.67 on a $100 bet ($986.57 total return).
-> Build your own NCAA Basketball same-game parlay when you join NorthStar Bets
-> Build your own NCAA Basketball same-game parlay when you join NorthStar Bets
How to bet on college basketball futures
This betting market provides customers with the opportunity to place a bet on an event that will be settled in the future — sometimes months down the road.
Picking the national championship winner is the most popular futures bet in college basketball. Due to the one-and-done nature of the tournament, you can often find lengthy odds for even the best of teams.
The University of Connecticut won the national title in 2024 and opened the following season with +700 odds to repeat.
If you are confident the Huskies will make it to the Sweet Sixteen or the Elite Eight, there could be hedging opportunities available down the road.
There are other futures markets available to bettors such as conference winners and team win totals.
College basketball is divided into conferences, including the ACC, Big East, Big 12 and many others. Before March Madness begins, each conference has a tournament to crown its champion. These tournaments also follow a single-game knockout format where the winner gets an automatic bid to the tournament.
Some examples of what conference futures could look like prior to the season:
Creighton to win the Big East: +1,200 Baylor to win the Big 12: +250 Syracuse to win the ACC: +675 Gonzaga to win the WCC: -290
Many sports fans describe March Madness as the best sporting event of the year, and it’s hard to disagree.
The 68-team, single-elimination tournament has four play-in games as well as four regions with teams seeded Nos. 1 through 16.
The higher seed is usually favoured unless it’s a close matchup.
March Madness is known for its unpredictability, particularly in the first two rounds when there’s a disparity in seeding. This is an opportunity to find value on moneyline picks, where some upsets pay out at impressively long odds.
On top of ML picks, you can place wagers on totals, spreads and parlays.
We’ll leave you with a piece of advice when betting on March Madness: Maintain composure and wager responsibly.
It’s easy to fall into the trap of betting every game. That’s especially true when you pick a bracket and are invested in which team moves on. Stick to your analysis and find value in what you are confident in rather than betting all games just for the sake of it.
The tournament is called March Madness for a reason. Sometimes, everything you think you know about college hoops falls flat on its face.
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-> Ready to put your NCAA Basketball knowledge to use ? Sign up for NorthStar Bets to access live odds, props, parlays and exclusive Canadian Insights all season long
Kumar Rocker makes his MLB debut tonight when the Texas Rangers take on the Seattle Mariners.
The pregame narrative: Rocker was a standout pitcher at Vanderbilt and will get his first taste of the big leagues tonight. I think he’ll have a solid debut but I am targeting Seattle’s starter, Bryce Miller, in a plus-money parlay.
Check out my Rangers vs. Mariners prop picks for Sept. 12.
Miller’s numbers against Texas’ lineup (in 39 plate appearances) don’t look pretty:
.314 opponent BA
.514 opponent SLG
17.9% K rate
But I’m not worried about that. The two guys who have done damage against him are Adolis Garcia (2-for-6, one double, one HR) and Jonah Heim (3-for-6, three singles). Both are in awful slumps. Garcia is batting .189 in September and Heim is hitless in his last seven games.
Miller has been one of baseball’s best pitchers lately, posting a 2.01 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP in his last 10 starts.
He’s not an elite swing-and-miss guy — Miller owns a 56th percentile K rate on Baseball Savant — but pitchers don’t have to rack up whiffs to do damage against the Rangers.
Texas has the fifth-worst wRC+ (88) and seventh-lowest batting average (.233) since the all-star break.
Miller has gone over this line in seven of his last 10 starts, which explains why the bet carries -175 odds.
That’s why I’m adding Victor Robles over 0.5 hits to push this play into plus money.
The fireballing righty was one of the most coveted prospects in baseball but had his career briefly de-railed due to a shoulder injury. The Mets originally drafted him in 2021 and then declined to sign him after a medical issue.
Rocker re-entered the draft in 2022 and was taken third overall by the Rangers. He’s been buzzing in the minors ever since.
He has a 0.91 ERA in seven starts since being moved to Triple-A and struck out 26 batters in his last three starts.
Polanco is in the mud right now, batting .138 in August. He also has a paltry .195 batting average against righties this year. I expect him to have another bad night.
One moneyline pick, one spread, and one total make up my NFL Week 2 best bets.
The pregame narrative: The Kansas City Chiefs kicked off their title defence with a win and I expect them to cover the spread at home against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Elsewhere, back the Los Angeles Rams to win and fade offence in Jacksonville.
I think it’s safe to say the Cleveland Browns are completely screwed under centre.
Deshaun Watson looked horrible against the Dallas Cowboys, completing just 24-of-45 attempts (53.3%) for 169 yards while throwing two interceptions.
He also ranked dead last in average EPA per play for quarterbacks (-0.357), per RBSDM.com.
Any guesses on who was first? How about I just tell you: Baker Mayfield. Funny, isn’t it?
Cleveland took a massive risk signing Watson to a fully guaranteed, backloaded contract and it’s coming back to bite them. The former all-pro hasn’t put together a single decent season with the Browns and I have zero faith in him dialling in on Sunday.
With David Njoku and Nick Chubb out and Jedrick Wills and Tyler Conklin questionable, things could get very ugly.
Fortunately for Cleveland, it still has a strong defence.
The Browns did get torched by the Cowboys at home but I think they can bounce back against the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence didn’t look great (12-of-21, 162 yards) and Cleveland allowed the fewest yards per game last season.
This has all the makings of a slog.
Key stat: Cleveland only had 10 points in Week 1 before scoring a touchdown in garbage time (29 seconds left) to lose 33-17.
Quick picks
Chiefs -5.5 (-110): This feels like a trap line but I don’t care.
Joe Burrow’s ceiling is elite but he’s looked more like Kenny Pickett coming out of the gate lately. The quarterback is 0-5 in his last five Week 1 and 2 games and threw for just 164 yards in a shocking loss to the New England Patriots.
Tee Higgins was out and remains questionable this weekend and Ja’Marr Chase looked rusty after holding out of training camp.
Now the Bengals have to go on the road to take down the two-time reigning champs? I don’t think so.
The Baltimore Ravens were an inch away from forcing overtime in the season opener but didn’t get it. Ultimately, KC won 27-20 thanks to another dominant Patrick Mahomes performance.
The Chiefs’ defence is elite and the offence plugged some glaring holes with the addition of Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown. Not to mention Rashee Rice looks like a bonafide breakout candidate.
I’ll gladly lay the points with the home team.
Rams moneyline (+100): L.A. forced overtime against a great Detroit Lions team and was a coin toss away from potentially winning the game.
Puka Nacua is out and that’s a big loss but Cooper Kupp looked like the 2021 triple-crown winning version of himself.
I think Matthew Stafford has enough weapons to carve up an Arizona Cardinals defence which looked hopeless against the Buffalo Bills.
Arizona ranked 31st in defensive EPA per play last week after finishing 31st in the 2023 season.
Not to mention Sean McVay has his divisional rivals’ number. The Rams are 13-3 against the Cardinals since he took over as head coach in 2017.
One moneyline pick, one spread, and one total make up my NFL Week 2 best bets.
The pregame narrative: The Kansas City Chiefs kicked off their title defence with a win and I expect them to cover the spread at home against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Elsewhere, back the Los Angeles Rams to win and fade offence in Jacksonville.
I think it’s safe to say the Cleveland Browns are completely screwed under centre.
Deshaun Watson looked horrible against the Dallas Cowboys, completing just 24-of-45 attempts (53.3%) for 169 yards while throwing two interceptions.
He also ranked dead last in average EPA per play for quarterbacks (-0.357), per RBSDM.com.
Any guesses on who was first? How about I just tell you: Baker Mayfield. Funny, isn’t it?
Cleveland took a massive risk signing Watson to a fully guaranteed, backloaded contract and it’s coming back to bite them. The former all-pro hasn’t put together a single decent season with the Browns and I have zero faith in him dialling in on Sunday.
With David Njoku and Nick Chubb out and Jedrick Wills and Tyler Conklin questionable, things could get very ugly.
Fortunately for Cleveland, it still has a strong defence.
The Browns did get torched by the Cowboys at home but I think they can bounce back against the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence didn’t look great (12-of-21, 162 yards) and Cleveland allowed the fewest yards per game last season.
This has all the makings of a slog.
Key stat: Cleveland only had 10 points in Week 1 before scoring a touchdown in garbage time (29 seconds left) to lose 33-17.
Quick picks
Chiefs -5.5 (-110): This feels like a trap line but I don’t care.
Joe Burrow’s ceiling is elite but he’s looked more like Kenny Pickett coming out of the gate lately. The quarterback is 0-5 in his last Week 1 and 2 games and threw for just 164 yards in a shocking loss to the New England Patriots.
Tee Higgins was out and remains questionable this weekend and Ja’Marr Chase looked rusty after holding out of training camp.
Now the Bengals have to go on the road to take down the two-time reigning champs? I don’t think so.
The Baltimore Ravens were an inch away from forcing overtime in the season opener but didn’t get it. Ultimately, KC won 27-20 thanks to another dominant Patrick Mahomes performance.
The Chiefs’ defence is elite and the offence plugged some glaring holes with the addition of Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown. Not to mention Rashee Rice looks like a bonafide breakout candidate.
I’ll gladly lay the points with the home team.
Rams moneyline (+100): L.A. forced overtime against a great Detroit Lions team and was a coin toss away from potentially winning the game.
The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins kick off Week 2 with a showdown in South Beach.
The pregame narrative: Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passing last week and should put up more gaudy numbers at home. On Buffalo’s side, I’m backing rookie Keon Coleman to clear his receptions total.
Check out my Bills vs. Dolphins prop picks for Sept. 12.
Buffalo’s win over the Arizona Cardinals was anything but pretty.
The Bills went down 17-3 early and needed a second-half outburst to eke out a victory. But a slow start probably should have been expected for a team with a revamped receiving corps.
Coleman slots alongside Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins, which is a complete overhaul from the Stefon Diggs/Gabriel Davis tandem Bills fans were used to seeing.
That said, the rookie out of Florida State had himself a solid debut. He led Buffalo in targets (five), receptions (four), and yards (51) while participating in 73% of snaps.
It’s hard not to like that.
Joe Brady and Josh Allen clearly trust the 21-year-old and he should factor heavily into Thursday’s game plan.
The Dolphins are capable of putting up points which means Buffalo will be throwing the ball often. Also, Jalen Ramsey has been battling a hamstring injury and isn’t at 100%.
That secondary looked sharp against the Jacksonville Jaguars, holding Trevor Lawrence to 162 yards on 12 completions, but I still like Coleman to clear this modest total.
Key stat: Coleman’s 22 routes ran were the most of any Bill in Week 1, per BuffaloRumblings.com.
Quick picks
Tagovailoa over 267.5 passing yards (-114): The Dolphins offence picked up where it left off as Tagovailoa threw for 338 yards in a 20-17 victory.
The quarterback attempted 37 passes on Sunday and one of those connected with Tyreek Hill for an 80-yard bomb.
Mike McDaniel isn’t afraid to let it fly and he might not have a choice.
Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane both missed practices on Monday and Tuesday. If those two don’t play, Miami will need to re-adjust its game plan to be more pass-heavy.
That’s nothing new to Tua, though, who led the league in passing last year (4,624) and ranked fourth among starters in average EPA per play (0.187), per RBSDM.com.
He cleared this line in eight of 17 starts including once against the Bills.
Taron Johnson, Buffalo’s starting nickel corner, is out.
