The Toronto Blue Jays and St. Louis Cardinals are back at it for an afternoon game at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: Alejandro Kirk played hero when the Blue Jays walked off the Cardinals last night. Today, I’m looking to back Jose Berrios and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Check out the best Blue Jays props vs. the Cardinals on Sept. 14.
Blue Jays props vs. Cardinals
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Best Bet: Berrios over 4.5 strikeouts (-139)
There is some juice to contend with here but I believe it’s worth the squeeze.
Berrios has steadied the ship after a tough start to the season. He has a 2.36 ERA since the start of August and has recorded five-plus strikeouts in all seven of those starts.
He’s averaging 20.3 outs in that span which is roughly 6.2 IP. Berrios isn’t an elite swing-and-miss guy by any means but working deep into ballgames gives him a better chance of racking up Ks.
The Cardinals managed to keep Kevin Gausman to just three strikeouts in 7.0 IP yesterday but his K rate has fallen off a cliff.
Berrios has seen parts of this Cardinals lineup a few times and the results speak for themselves.
In 26 combined plate appearances, he has a monster 46.2% K rate, according to Baseball Savant. That includes striking out Paul Goldschmidt six times in nine at-bats and Brendan Donovan three times in six at-bats.
He should be able to clear this modest total.
Key stat: Berrios recorded seven strikeouts the last two times he played the Cards (both in 2022).
Quick pick
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (-106): We might be running the risk of sounding like a broken record over here … but Vladdy is really, really good.
In his last 70 games, he’s hitting .361 with a 1.116 OPS. He has 50 extra-base hits in that span and went 1-for-4 last night with a double.
He’s having a mini-slump this month, if you can even call it that, batting .270 across nine games. But he’s still got a hit in seven of those contests and has cleared this line three times.
Tonight’s matchup against St. Louis starter Kyle Gibson should be favourable.
The righty has a 4.20 ERA and ranks in the bottom-third percentile for xERA, xBA, barrel rate and fastball velocity (90.9 mph).
Vladdy is batting .402 with a .632 xSLG against fastballs under 93 mph and is 5-for-14 with a double against Gibson.
Picks made at 8:53 a.m. on 09/14/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.