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CFL Week 16 picks and predictions: Bet on the Redblacks, Argonauts to cover

I’m backing two underdogs to cover the spread in the CFL this week.

The pregame narrative: The Ottawa Redblacks are catching the defending Grey Cup champions at the right time and are worth backing as home underdogs. Elsewhere, take the Hamilton Tiger-Cats to make things interesting in Toronto.

Check out the best CFL Week 16 picks below.

CFL Week 16 picks

Full CFL Week 16 betting markets

Best Bet: Redblacks +2.5 (-110)

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The Montreal Alouettes looked every bit like the reigning champs through the first 13 weeks of the season.

But lately, not so much.

Montreal eked out a 19-19 tie in overtime against the Calgary Stampeders one game after getting thrashed by the BC Lions, 37-21.

Before that, it scraped out a pair of one-score wins against the Edmonton Elks (21-17) and Saskatchewan Roughriders (27-24).

The Redblacks are far from an offensive juggernaut but they’ve been really solid at home.

Ottawa is 6-0-1 on home field this season, scoring 30-plus points in each of its last four games at TD Place. That includes blowout victories against the Argonauts and Lions.

Cody Fajardo hasn’t taken over a game since returning from injury while Dru Brown has been much better than expected in his first year as a starter. He is coming off his worst start of the season but I’ll put my faith in a bounce-back performance.

Key stat: Ottawa has a +60 point differential at home.

Quick pick

Tiger-Cats +6.5 (-103): Hamilton will need to run the table for a chance at the CFL playoffs, and with the way its offence is playing, that might just be possible.

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The Tiger-Cats have won back-to-back games, scoring 31 and 37 points to bring their record to 4-9.

Bo Levi Mitchell has been a gunslinger this season. He leads the league in passing yards (3,682) and touchdowns (23). He put up 646 yards and four TDs in the last two weeks alone.

One of those games was against the Argonauts, which the Ti-Cats won, 31-28.

Unfortunately for Hamilton, its defence is awful. The squad is giving up the most points per game (31.5) and the third-most rushing yards per game (106.2).

Toronto has a bruising rush attack and logs the second-most rushing yards per game (116.8). It has struggled through the air, though, and a running clock should benefit an underdog to cover the spread.

I like Hamilton’s chances of keeping up if this turns into a shootout.

Picks made at 2:07 p.m. ET on 09/18/24.

NFL Week 3 parlay picks: Back the Chargers, Browns, Lions in +300 wager

Two favourites and an underdog make up this week’s NFL parlay.

The pregame narrative: Two undefeated squads meet when the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Los Angeles Chargers and I’m banking points with the road team. Elsewhere, the Cleveland Browns should stifle the New York Giants’ offence and the Detroit Lions are poised to bounce back.

Check out my Week 3 parlay picks for the start of the NFL season.

NFL Week 3 parlay picks

Go to full NFL Week 3 betting markets.

Parlay: Chargers +7.5 + Browns -6 + Lions moneyline (+300)

Chargers +7.5 (-350): Last week our Spencer Closs hit a +455 parlay featuring Steelers moneyline, but I’m fading the Black and Gold this time around.

Pittsburgh’s defence is elite but I can’t trust the offence yet. Even with Justin Fields completing 69.8% of his passes and no turnovers the team has managed just four red zone trips and 31 points.

John Harbaugh already put his stamp on the Chargers: Smashmouth, ground-and-pound football.

Los Angeles is 2-0 and has allowed a combined 13 points to the Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders while averaging 197.5 rushing yards per game.

This contest’s 35.5-point game total is the lowest on the slate and L.A. should at least keep things close in a slog.

Other parlay picks

Browns -6 (-112): With Bryce Young benched, it’s fair to say Daniel Jones is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. You could probably make that argument beforehand too, but I digress.

The sixth-year signal-caller has thrown four touchdowns to eight interceptions in the last two seasons. In that span, he has the fourth-worst EPA per play among QBs with 300-plus snaps (only Young, Mac Jones and Zach Wilson are lower, Per RBSDM.com).

Jones lost his best weapon in Saquon Barkley and struggled to score against the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders.

Now the Giants have to go into Cleveland, where the Browns allowed just 13.9 points per game last year.

Deshaun Watson’s season opener was ugly but he looked a bit better in Week 2. Even if Watson has another meltdown, the Browns’ defence is capable of covering this spread on its own.

Lions moneyline (-150): Last week, the Lions lost a nail-biter to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers despite outgaining them by 245 yards.

For as good as the Arizona Cardinals looked against the Los Angeles Rams — and they looked great — I am thrilled to get the reigning NFC North champs at this price.

Detroit’s offence should be the envy of the league. It has a pair of elite running backs that can rumble behind the NFL’s top offensive line, as well as a bunch of weapons for Jared Goff to throw to.

Arizona can put up points, but Dan Campbell’s squad is capable of winning a shootout.

The Cardinals didn’t have to deal with Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua on Sunday, so I won’t put much stock into them holding L.A. to just 10 points.

They had the second-worst defensive EPA per play in 2023.

NFL picks made at 10:00 a.m. on 09/18/24.

Patriots vs. Jets Week 3 prop picks: Back Garrett Wilson and Braelon Allen on TNF

The New York Jets host the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: New York is a 6.5-point favourite as of Wednesday afternoon. That’s the biggest margin it’s been favoured over New England since 2000. I’m looking for a pair of Jets — Garrett Wilson and Braelon Allen — to produce.

Check out my Patriots vs. Jets prop picks for Thursday Night Football on Sept. 19.

Patriots vs. Jets prop picks

Full Thursday Night Football betting markets: Click Here

Best Bet: Wilson over 65.5 receiving yards (-113)

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Running on this New England defence is ill-advised.

The Patriots allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game in 2023 and have only given up 93 through two games under Jerod Mayo.

With that said, the secondary looks shaky and I think Wilson can have himself a night.

Aaron Rodgers finally has a few games under his belt as a Jet and I must say I’m impressed. The four-time MVP hasn’t quite been vintage but he threw for 176 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions last week.

Wilson caught four of six targets for 57 yards in that game.

A slow-ish start was to be expected but I can see a breakout for New York’s passing game at home. The Patriots have allowed the fourth-most passing yards so far with a pair of Seattle Seahawks — D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njiba — eclipsing the 100-yard mark in Week 2.

Wilson was held under this mark in both games against New England last year but he had Zach Wilson and Trevor Siemian throwing him the ball.

Alijah Vera-Tucker and Joe Tippmann both have 100% pass-block win rates, per ESPN. They should keep the flies off Rodgers while Wilson finds open space for big gains.

Key stat: Wilson averaged 61.2 receiving yards per game last year despite all of his quarterbacks ranking outside the top 55 in EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.

Quick pick

Allen over 22.5 rushing yards (-112): I know I just said running on New England shouldn’t be New York’s game plan but this is a very manageable line for a talented rookie.

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Breece Hall was banged up in New York’s win over Tennessee which forced Allen into the game. He rushed seven times for 33 yards and a score and caught two passes for 23 yards and a score.

On a short week, I can see the Jets rotating in Allen once again to keep their bell cow fresh.

Rodgers has already hyped up Allen alongside Hall, stating, “They’re both studs.”

The 20-year-old rookie has speed and size working in his favour. He rushed for 3,494 yards in 35 games (25 starts) with Wisconsin before being drafted in the fourth round.

Picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET 09/18/2024.

NFL Week 3 parlay picks: Back the Chargers, Browns, Lions in +319 wager

Two favourites and an underdog make up this week’s NFL parlay.

The pregame narrative: Two undefeated squads meet when the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Los Angeles Chargers and I’m banking points with the road team. Elsewhere, the Cleveland Browns should stifle the New York Giants’ offence and the Detroit Lions are poised to bounce back.

Check out my Week 3 parlay picks for the start of the NFL season.

NFL Week 3 parlay picks

Go to full NFL Week 3 betting markets.

Parlay: Chargers +7.5 + Browns -6 + Lions moneyline (+319)

Chargers +7.5 (-315): Last week our Spencer Closs hit a +468 parlay featuring Steelers moneyline, but I’m fading the Black and Gold this time around.

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Pittsburgh’s defence is elite but I can’t trust the offence yet. Even with Justin Fields completing 69.8% of his passes and no turnovers the team has managed just four red zone trips and 31 points.

John Harbaugh already put his stamp on the Chargers: Smashmouth, ground-and-pound football.

Los Angeles is 2-0 and has allowed a combined 13 points to the Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders while averaging 197.5 rushing yards per game.

This contest’s 35.5-point game total is the lowest on the slate and L.A. should at least keep things close in a slog.

Other parlay picks

Browns -6 (-112): With Bryce Young benched, it’s fair to say Daniel Jones is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. You could probably make that argument beforehand too, but I digress.

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The sixth-year signal-caller has thrown four touchdowns to eight interceptions in the last two seasons. In that span, he has the fourth-worst EPA per play among QBs with 300-plus snaps (only Young, Mac Jones and Zach Wilson are lower, Per RBSDM.com).

Jones lost his best weapon in Saquon Barkley and struggled to score against the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders.

Now the Giants have to go into Cleveland, where the Browns allowed just 13.9 points per game last year.

Deshaun Watson’s season opener was ugly but he looked a bit better in Week 2. Even if Watson has another meltdown, the Browns’ defence is capable of covering this spread on its own.

Lions moneyline (-150): Last week, the Lions lost a nail-biter to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers despite outgaining them by 245 yards.

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For as good as the Arizona Cardinals looked against the Los Angeles Rams — and they looked great — I am thrilled to get the reigning NFC North champs at this price.

Detroit’s offence should be the envy of the league. It has a pair of elite running backs that can rumble behind the NFL’s top offensive line, as well as a bunch of weapons for Jared Goff to throw to.

Arizona can put up points, but Dan Campbell’s squad is capable of winning a shootout.

The Cardinals didn’t have to deal with Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua on Sunday, so I won’t put much stock into them holding L.A. to just 10 points.

They had the second-worst defensive EPA per play in 2023.

NFL picks made at 10:00 a.m. on 09/18/24.

Astros vs. Padres prop picks Sept. 16: Back Jackson Merrill and Kyle Tucker in plus matchups

Jackson Merrill and Kyle Tucker headline these Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Merrill is closing in on the NL Rookie of the Year and has a good chance to do damage tonight. Take the over on his bases prop and also back Houston’s Kyle Tucker to go over his.

Check out my Astros vs. Padres prop picks for Sept. 16.

Astros vs. Padres prop picks

MLB Markets: Click Here | MLB Stats: Click Here

Best Bet: Merrill over 1.5 bases (+140)

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Do I think Merrill will win Rookie of the Year? No.

But that has less to do with him and more to do with Paul Skenes having a legendary season. But my opinion on that doesn’t mean much, and the odds would indicate Merrill is going to get the trophy.

The Padres’ centre fielder is -770 at the time of writing thanks to a red-hot second half.

Merrill is slashing .306/.355/.608 since the all-star break with 30 extra-base hits and a team-high 158 wRC+ (17th best in MLB in that span, min. 100 plate appearances).

He’s done most of his damage against righties this year and faces an inconsistent one tonight.

Houston sends rookie Spencer Arrighetti to the bump and he’s looked great at times and horrible at others. He held the Oakland Athletics to two earned runs in 6.2 IP his last time out (though he did give up seven hits) and allowed nine runs in 0.2 IP the outing before that.

Five starts ago he was tagged for seven hits and four earned runs by the Chicago White Sox … but he also shut out the Baltimore Orioles and Philadelphia Phillies since.

All of that’s to say bettors aren’t sure which version of Arrighetti is coming to the bump.

But I do know which version of Merrill will be there — and it’s one that’s batting .309 with a .885 OPS against right-handers this season.

Key stat: Merrill has cleared this line in six of 12 games this month.

Quick picks

Tucker over 1.5 bases (+114): Tucker is a great comp for Merrill moving forward. He’s a power-hitting lefty bat outfielder who doesn’t whiff much and has a great eye.

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That makes him a good choice to do damage against righty Yu Darvish this evening.

Tucker hasn’t been his best since returning from the IL on Sept. 6 but he’s still batting .250 with a home run and a double. On the season he’s batting .299 against righties with a monster .653 slugging percentage.

Darvish has been getting tagged lately and I want to keep fading. He’s given up 26 hits in his last four starts (16.1 innings pitched) and seven of them have left the ballpark.

MLB picks made at 12:02 p.m. ET on 09/16/2024.

Falcons vs. Eagles Week 2 same-game parlay predictions: Bet on Robinson, Smith in +390 MNF wager

The Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons wrap up Week 2 on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta’s offence sputtered in the first game of the Kirk Cousins era but I expect it to bounce back tonight. Bet on the Falcons to cover an alternate spread alongside two player props on Bijan Robinson and DeVonta Smith.

Check out my Falcons vs. Eagles same-game parlay predictions for Week 2 below.

Falcons vs. Eagles same-game parlay predictions

Parlay: Falcons +10.5 + Robinson over 24.5 receiving yards + Smith over 6.5 receptions (+390)

Falcons +10.5 (-235): The Falcons only managed 10 points against the Pittsburgh Steelers in their opener but I won’t hold that against them.

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Kirk Cousins was playing in his first game since tearing his Achilles last season and is on a new team with a new coaching staff. It will take time for Cousins to adjust and the Steelers’ defence is one of the best in football.

I think tonight’s matchup against the Eagles is a softer landing spot.

Philadelphia’s defence was horrid to close out 2023 and it didn’t look much better in Week 1. The Birds gave up 29 points and 414 yards of offence to Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers.

Sure, they still won that game thanks to an offensive explosion, but I think the Falcons can put up enough points to cover this heavily adjusted spread.

Philadelphia was 3-4-1 ATS at home last year and only covered this spread in two of its 18 games.

Other parlay picks

Robinson over 24.5 receiving yards (-195): Atlanta’s new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson made it clear Bijan is getting a heightened workload this season.

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The second-year back logged 111 scrimmage yards on 23 touches against Pittsburgh and 43 of those came through the air on five catches.

Robinson cleared this line 10 times last season while averaging 28.6 receiving yards per game. Mind you, that was with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke under centre.

Cousins is a master of getting the ball out quickly and Robinson is a natural beneficiary of that. The tailback ran 21 routes and had an 89.1% snap share in the season opener and should feature heavily out of the passing game tonight.

Smith over 6.5 receptions (+138): Another reason I like the Falcons +10.5 is that A.J. Brown is out.

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The two-time All-Pro is a gamewrecker and had the most targets (10) of any Eagle in last week’s international game.

Brown hauled in five of those targets for 119 yards while Smith caught 7-of-8 passes for 84 yards.

Both played a big role but I expect Jalen Hurts to spoonfeed “Skinny Batman” tonight.

Smith was targeted 12 times and caught eight passes in the wild-card game last season when Brown was sidelined with an injury.

Picks made at 10:00 a.m. on 09/16/24.

NFL Week 3 odds and betting lines: Cowboys, Ravens meet in crucial matchup

Another bye-free slate of NFL action awaits bettors in Week 3.

The latest: Three legit title contenders — the Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers — all went down as favourites. All three will be on the road this Sunday. Elsewhere, the Green Bay Packers look to build off an underdog win without their QB1.

Check out the latest NFL Week 3 odds below.

NFL Week 3 odds

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New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

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Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts

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New York Giants vs. Cleveland Browns

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Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints

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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

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Houston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings

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Denver Broncos vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Carolina Panthers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

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Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks

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Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons

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Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

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Washington Commanders vs. Cincinnati Bengals

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Betting insights

With Malik Willis under centre, the Packers pulled off an upset victory by running the ball in excess against the Colts. Jordan Love wasn’t placed on injured reserve, so the Packers’ quarterback situation will be something to monitor this week.

The Saints’ 37-point home win over the Panthers in Week 1 didn’t impress many people … but how about that 25-point win at Dallas in Week 2? Another prove-it game awaits New Orleans with the Eagles coming to town.

After a surprise win at home against the vaunted 49ers, the Vikings welcome another Super Bowl contender (Texans) into Minnesota this week. The Vikings are just 3-6 ATS at home since the start of last season, per Team Rankings.

Who could’ve seen this coming for the Ravens? Baltimore blew a 10-point lead at home in the fourth quarter against Las Vegas to move to 0-2 for the first time since 2015. Up next is a date in Dallas, where the Cowboys look to shrug off a home loss of their own.

EPL Matchday 4 odds: Arsenal is favoured over Tottenham in North London derby

The international break is over and the North London derby headlines Matchday 4.

The latest: Arsenal got the best of its cross-town rivals twice last season and is favoured to win yet again at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Liverpool suffered a shocking loss to Nottingham Forest while Manchester City remained undefeated.

Check out the latest EPL Matchday 4 odds.

EPL Matchday 4 odds

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EPL Matchday 4 odds: Sept. 15

Tottenham vs. Arsenal

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Wolves vs. Newcastle United

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Betting insights

Arsenal has dominated the North London derby lately, going 5-1-2 across the last four seasons, including two straight wins away. Last year, the Gunners won 3-2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, marking the sixth time in the last seven fixtures there had been three-plus goals.

How to understand and make a teaser bet

What’s a teaser bet? A teaser is a parlay, meaning that two or more bets are combined into one ticket.

Teasers are a unique way to change the spread of multiple games and are most common in high-scoring sports like the NFL.

We’ll run through teaser examples in both sports, starting with the NFL.

Teaser betting basics

Let’s use the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams as our first example.

For our sake, we’re going to say the Chiefs are 9.5-point home favourites over the Las Vegas Raiders, while the Rams are 4.5-point home underdogs versus the San Francisco 49ers.

If you like Kansas City and Los Angeles but aren’t 100% confident they will cover the spread, you can tease the spreads to more palatable numbers.

In this scenario, we will tease both games by 7 points, standard to the NFL, as it represents a touchdown and extra point.

By doing that, we bring the Chiefs spread down to -2.5, meaning they only have to win by a field goal instead of 10. Los Angeles, meanwhile, would become a +11.5 underdog, meaning they can lose by 11 points or fewer, instead of just four.

When teasing a game, you are paying more juice (the cut you give the sportsbook for taking your bet), but are gaining points. That’s the key trade-off.

Teaser bet odds

Normal point spread odds in the NFL (and the NBA) are -110 for both the favourite and underdog. So at the normal spread in the Chiefs and Rams examples, it means Chiefs -9.5 and Rams +4.5 would both have odds of -110.

Those odds mean that you would have to wager $110 to win $100.

If you bet on these games as a parlay, though, the odds would be +264. That would return a profit of $264 on a $100 wager. Why the bigger payout? Because betting on more than one outcome on a single ticket comes with more risk. You would have to get both bets right in order to win.

Now, when teasing these games, the odds would change.

Let’s say the Chiefs at -2.5 had odds of -260 while the Rams at +11.5 was -240. Bet together, the odds would be -104 and you would profit $96.15 on a $100 wager.

It’s worth noting that the odds won’t always be exactly the same for every teaser card.

Teasing totals

Teasing totals is very similar to teasing points.

If an over/under is set at 47.5 at -110 odds in the NFL, you can tease it seven points either way. Over 40.5, or under 54.5 both provide more of a cushion, but it changes the odds.

How to bet a reverse teaser

So we’ve established teasers are selling odds to buy points in order to be safer, but what if you want to do the opposite?

This isn’t typically given as an option, but you can manually change the spreads in what is known as a reverse teaser. That means you are teasing the line in the opposite direction to get a massive uptick in payout potential.

This is more unlikely to cash and you’re essentially selling points to get plus odds.

Let’s say the Buffalo Bills are 10.5-point favourites at home vs. the Carolina Panthers and you believe a total blowout is going to happen. Then you can reverse-tease them to -17.5, meaning they now have to win by 18 or more.

Further, if the Green Bay Packers are 4.5-point underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys and you think they’ll win, you can reverse tease the line to Packers -3.5.

Combining these two reverse teasers is risky, as you are going a touchdown away from what the operator believes will occur. But the odds would be tantalizing and look like this:

Packers -3.5 (+200)
Bills -17.5 (+220)

That would generate odds of +860.

Bears vs. Texans Week 2 prop picks: Bet on Joe Mixon, fade Stefon Diggs on Sunday Night Football

The Houston Texans host the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Caleb Williams vs. C.J. Stroud storyline takes centre stage but I’m looking elsewhere for value. Back Joe Mixon to go over his receiving total and fade Stefon Diggs to clear his.

Check out my Bears vs. Texans prop picks for Sept. 15.

Bears vs. Texans prop picks

Full Sunday Night Football betting markets: Click Here

Best Bet: Mixon over 2.5 receptions (-109)

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Mixon was a force in Week 1 turning 30 carries for 159 rushing yards and a score.

Backing him to clear his 72.5 rushing total might seem tempting but I think that’s a tricky line. The Bears allowed the third-fewest rushing yards last season and have one of the more imposing front sevens in the NFL.

That said, I’m keen on backing Mixon out of the backfield.

Chicago gave up seven receptions to running backs in its season opener with Tyjaee Spears (four) and Tony Pollard (three) going over this line.

Letting tailbacks eat in the passing game has been a negative trend for this Bears defence dating back to last season. The team gave up the second-most receptions (107) and most receiving yards (1,003) to RBs in 2023.

Mixon was on the field for 72% of Houston’s offensive snaps last week and hauled in all three of his targets for 19 yards.

Backup RB Dameon Pierce didn’t practice on Friday and is questionable with a hamstring injury. This is Mixon’s backfield and he should get enough looks to go over this mark.

Key stat: Mixon cleared this mark in seven of his last eight games dating back to last season.

Quick picks

Diggs under 52.5 receiving yards (-112): There are a lot of cooks in Stroud’s kitchen.

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The second-year quarterback has Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Daulton Schultz to feed alongside Diggs, who did have a solid Texans debut.

The former Buffalo Bill caught all six of his targets for two touchdowns … but that only amounted to 33 receiving yards.

Half of those targets came inside the 10-yard line, which is great if you want to bet Diggs as an anytime touchdown scorer. But it’s not great for racking up yards, which is what this line asks.

Diggs went under this line in six of his last seven games on the Bills and I don’t like his chances of having a monster game against a solid defence.

Picks made at 11:51 a.m. ET 09/14/2024.