Avery Perri

The Toronto Blue Jays have nothing left to play for … but they can eliminate the Boston Red Sox from playoff contention tonight.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has lost five straight and fell in extra-innings yesterday. I’m not looking to back a side, though, and am instead taking player prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jarren Duran.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox on Sept. 25.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

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Best Bet: Duran to score (-103)

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This is a nice price for Boston’s leadoff man.

Duran has reached base safely 11 times in his last five games (seven hits, four walks) and has scored in three of those contests. He’s batting a respectable .285 on the season and leads the Red Sox with 108 runs.

Toronto sends Kevin Gausman to the mound and he’s gotten sparked by his AL East rivals lately.

In two starts against Boston this season, Gausman allowed seven earned runs and 11 hits in 11.1 IP. Duran was held hitless in one of those games but was 2-for-5 with a run in the other.

He’s done quite well against Gausman overall, going 6-for-16 with four doubles and a home run.

Gausman neutralized Boston’s lineup in the past with elite swing-and-miss stuff — he has a 35.2% K rate against the Bo-Sox in 88 plate appearances, per Baseball Savant — but that’s not the case anymore.

The righty’s 21.8% K rate (41st percentile) has taken a nosedive from his 31.1% mark last year (93rd percentile).

Duran should be able to get on base I expect someone batting behind to drive him home.

Key stat: Duran has scored in eight of 12 games against the Blue Jays this year.

Quick pick

Guerrero over 1.5 bases (-103): Forgive us for sounding like a broken record but there’s good reason to continue backing Guerrero at the plate.

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Our Jordan Horrobin took this wager yesterday and it cashed when Vladdy shot a third-inning double into centre field. Guerrero has cleared this line in 35 of 59 games since the all-star break, including three of his last four.

He leads MLB in batting average (.382) and is second in OPS (1.153) since the Midsummer Classic.

Tonight’s matchup against Boston’s Richard Fitts profiles as a favourable one for Guerrero. The rookie righty hasn’t given up a run in three starts but he has allowed 13 hits in 15.2 IP with a .259 xBA.

Fitts is mainly a two-pitch guy, throwing a 95-mph fastball 44% of the time and a slider 33% of the time.

Guerrero is slugging .562 against fastballs and .732 against sliders.

Picks made at 8:10 a.m. on 09/25/24.

I’m targeting two hitters and a star pitcher in today’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers kick off today’s action at 1:10 p.m. ET against the Tampa Bay Rays. Take the over on his strikeout total and also back Victor Robles and Joc Pederson at the plate.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 24.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Skubal over 7.5 strikeouts (-105)

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In a few months, Skubal will be crowned the AL Cy Young winner, but right now he has more important things on his mind.

The Tigers are holding the American League’s final wild-card spot with the Minnesota Twins (1.0 GB) and Seattle Mariners (1.5 GB) right on their tail.

Every game is massive and Skubal has been the difference-maker for Detroit this season.

The ace is 17-4 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. His 224 strikeouts are the second most in baseball and his 30.3% K rate ranks in Baseball Savant’s 91st percentile.

The southpaw has gone under this number more often than not but he’s usually right there. Skubal has eight-plus strikeouts in 13 of 30 starts with at least seven Ks in 19 starts.

With that said, the Rays are a good team for him to go nuclear against.

Tampa Bay has the sixth-highest K rate against lefties this season (24.9%) and the 12th-highest (25.0%) since the all-star game.

Key stat: Skubal struck out nine Rays in 6.0 IP in his only start against them this year.

Quick picks

Robles over 0.5 runs (+155): Robles is on a next-level heater right now and I want in.

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Seattle’s leadoff man is slashing .444/.522/.574 in September with 17 runs scored in 18 games. He’s cashed this bet in four straight outings and will have plenty of opportunities to reach base on the road.

Based on those numbers, I’m a little shocked to see the odds set at +155.

The Mariners aren’t an offensive juggernaut but they’ve done well to get after Houston Astros starter Framber Valdez.

In 211 plate appearances, the team is batting .306 against him with a .495 slugging percentage. Robles is 2-for-5 with a walk (.500 OBP).

Pederson over 1.5 bases (+133): This is a good spot to back Pederson at a juicy price.

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Arizona’s DH isn’t putting up all-star numbers but his .279 batting average and .921 OPS are more than respectable. He’s got a hit in five of his last six games and has cleared this line in two of those contests.

Tonight he goes up against Logan Webb and the San Francisco Giants.

Pederson is just 2-of-10 against Webb with two singles but the underlying metrics suggest he’s been incredibly unlucky. He has a .360 xBA in those at-bats with a .629 xSLG.

Webb has struggled lately with a 6.58 ERA and .306 opponent BA in his last five starts.

Pederson’s slugging percentage is also 200 points higher against righties (.543) than lefties (.344).

Picks made at 9:15 a.m. ET on 09/24/2024.

I’m backing a pair of rookies on the Texas Rangers to do damage against the Toronto Blue Jays today.

The pregame narrative: Kumar Rocker was lights out in his MLB debut last week and I expect him to pile up strikeouts yet again. Also, Wyatt Langford has been swinging a hot bat and is a good candidate to clear his bases prop.

Check out the best Blue Jays props vs. the Rangers on Sept. 19.

Blue Jays props vs. Rangers

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Best Bet: Rocker over 4.5 strikeouts (-120)

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Rocker’s road to the big leagues was bumpy, but he’s finally arrived, and I want in on the action.

The standout ace at Vanderbilt was originally selected 10th overall by the New York Mets in the 2021 MLB draft but wasn’t offered a contract after medical concerns.

He got surgery on his injured shoulder, re-entered the draft and was selected third by the Rangers.

Rocker underwent Tommy John surgery last season and finally found his footing in the minors this year. He was promoted to Double-A in July and recorded 29 strikeouts in five starts (19.2 IP), clearing this line three times.

In Triple-A he fanned 10 batters in 5.0 innings and eight batters in 5.0 innings before earning a promotion to the majors.

And in his first start with the Rangers last Thursday, he struck out seven Seattle Mariners in 4.0 innings.

Rocker’s swing-and-miss stuff is downright nasty. He has an upper-90s fastball to pair with a wipeout slider that generated 13 whiffs on 21 swings against the Mariners.

Toronto is far from a strikeout-prone team but I’m confident enough in the rookie’s stuff to clear this modest line.

Key stat: Rocker has cleared this line in seven straight starts dating back to the minors, averaging 7.6 Ks in those games.

Quick picks

Langford over 1.5 bases (+114): Unlike Rocker, Langford has been much more of a “no doubt” prospect. He was selected fourth by the Rangers in 2023 and broke camp this year with the big-league club.

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The 22-year-old has been on fire lately, especially against right-handed pitchers. He’s slashing .362/.450/.609 against RHP in the last 30 days with a 201 wRC+.

Kevin Gausman is on the bump for the Blue Jays today and he looks nothing like the 2023 version of himself.

The righty has a 4.02 ERA and Baseball Savant’s advanced metrics suggest he’s been lucky. Gausman has an 11th percentile xERA (4.98), a 17th percentile xBA (.266) and a 17th percentile hard-hit rate (42.8%).

Langford has cleared this mark in six of his last eight games.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. on 09/19/24.