I’m targeting two hitters and a star pitcher in today’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers kick off today’s action at 1:10 p.m. ET against the Tampa Bay Rays. Take the over on his strikeout total and also back Victor Robles and Joc Pederson at the plate.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 24.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Skubal over 7.5 strikeouts (-105)
In a few months, Skubal will be crowned the AL Cy Young winner, but right now he has more important things on his mind.
The Tigers are holding the American League’s final wild-card spot with the Minnesota Twins (1.0 GB) and Seattle Mariners (1.5 GB) right on their tail.
Every game is massive and Skubal has been the difference-maker for Detroit this season.
The ace is 17-4 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. His 224 strikeouts are the second most in baseball and his 30.3% K rate ranks in Baseball Savant’s 91st percentile.
The southpaw has gone under this number more often than not but he’s usually right there. Skubal has eight-plus strikeouts in 13 of 30 starts with at least seven Ks in 19 starts.
With that said, the Rays are a good team for him to go nuclear against.
Tampa Bay has the sixth-highest K rate against lefties this season (24.9%) and the 12th-highest (25.0%) since the all-star game.
Key stat: Skubal struck out nine Rays in 6.0 IP in his only start against them this year.
Quick picks
Robles over 0.5 runs (+155): Robles is on a next-level heater right now and I want in.
Seattle’s leadoff man is slashing .444/.522/.574 in September with 17 runs scored in 18 games. He’s cashed this bet in four straight outings and will have plenty of opportunities to reach base on the road.
Based on those numbers, I’m a little shocked to see the odds set at +155.
The Mariners aren’t an offensive juggernaut but they’ve done well to get after Houston Astros starter Framber Valdez.
In 211 plate appearances, the team is batting .306 against him with a .495 slugging percentage. Robles is 2-for-5 with a walk (.500 OBP).
Pederson over 1.5 bases (+133): This is a good spot to back Pederson at a juicy price.
Arizona’s DH isn’t putting up all-star numbers but his .279 batting average and .921 OPS are more than respectable. He’s got a hit in five of his last six games and has cleared this line in two of those contests.
Tonight he goes up against Logan Webb and the San Francisco Giants.
Pederson is just 2-of-10 against Webb with two singles but the underlying metrics suggest he’s been incredibly unlucky. He has a .360 xBA in those at-bats with a .629 xSLG.
Webb has struggled lately with a 6.58 ERA and .306 opponent BA in his last five starts.
Pederson’s slugging percentage is also 200 points higher against righties (.543) than lefties (.344).
Picks made at 9:15 a.m. ET on 09/24/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.