The Houston Texans host the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: The Caleb Williams vs. C.J. Stroud storyline takes centre stage but I’m looking elsewhere for value. Back Joe Mixon to go over his receiving total and fade Stefon Diggs to clear his.
Check out my Bears vs. Texans prop picks for Sept. 15.
Bears vs. Texans prop picks
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Best Bet: Mixon over 2.5 receptions (-109)
Mixon was a force in Week 1 turning 30 carries for 159 rushing yards and a score.
Backing him to clear his 72.5 rushing total might seem tempting but I think that’s a tricky line. The Bears allowed the third-fewest rushing yards last season and have one of the more imposing front sevens in the NFL.
That said, I’m keen on backing Mixon out of the backfield.
Chicago gave up seven receptions to running backs in its season opener with Tyjaee Spears (four) and Tony Pollard (three) going over this line.
Letting tailbacks eat in the passing game has been a negative trend for this Bears defence dating back to last season. The team gave up the second-most receptions (107) and most receiving yards (1,003) to RBs in 2023.
Mixon was on the field for 72% of Houston’s offensive snaps last week and hauled in all three of his targets for 19 yards.
Backup RB Dameon Pierce didn’t practice on Friday and is questionable with a hamstring injury. This is Mixon’s backfield and he should get enough looks to go over this mark.
Key stat: Mixon cleared this mark in seven of his last eight games dating back to last season.
Quick picks
Diggs under 52.5 receiving yards (-112): There are a lot of cooks in Stroud’s kitchen.
The second-year quarterback has Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Daulton Schultz to feed alongside Diggs, who did have a solid Texans debut.
The former Buffalo Bill caught all six of his targets for two touchdowns … but that only amounted to 33 receiving yards.
Half of those targets came inside the 10-yard line, which is great if you want to bet Diggs as an anytime touchdown scorer. But it’s not great for racking up yards, which is what this line asks.
Diggs went under this line in six of his last seven games on the Bills and I don’t like his chances of having a monster game against a solid defence.
Picks made at 11:51 a.m. ET 09/14/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.