The New York Jets host the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: New York is a 6.5-point favourite as of Wednesday afternoon. That’s the biggest margin it’s been favoured over New England since 2000. I’m looking for a pair of Jets — Garrett Wilson and Braelon Allen — to produce.
Check out my Patriots vs. Jets prop picks for Thursday Night Football on Sept. 19.
Patriots vs. Jets prop picks
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Best Bet: Wilson over 65.5 receiving yards (-113)
Running on this New England defence is ill-advised.
The Patriots allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game in 2023 and have only given up 93 through two games under Jerod Mayo.
With that said, the secondary looks shaky and I think Wilson can have himself a night.
Aaron Rodgers finally has a few games under his belt as a Jet and I must say I’m impressed. The four-time MVP hasn’t quite been vintage but he threw for 176 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions last week.
Wilson caught four of six targets for 57 yards in that game.
A slow-ish start was to be expected but I can see a breakout for New York’s passing game at home. The Patriots have allowed the fourth-most passing yards so far with a pair of Seattle Seahawks — D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njiba — eclipsing the 100-yard mark in Week 2.
Wilson was held under this mark in both games against New England last year but he had Zach Wilson and Trevor Siemian throwing him the ball.
Alijah Vera-Tucker and Joe Tippmann both have 100% pass-block win rates, per ESPN. They should keep the flies off Rodgers while Wilson finds open space for big gains.
Key stat: Wilson averaged 61.2 receiving yards per game last year despite all of his quarterbacks ranking outside the top 55 in EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.
Quick pick
Allen over 22.5 rushing yards (-112): I know I just said running on New England shouldn’t be New York’s game plan but this is a very manageable line for a talented rookie.
Breece Hall was banged up in New York’s win over Tennessee which forced Allen into the game. He rushed seven times for 33 yards and a score and caught two passes for 23 yards and a score.
On a short week, I can see the Jets rotating in Allen once again to keep their bell cow fresh.
Rodgers has already hyped up Allen alongside Hall, stating, “They’re both studs.”
The 20-year-old rookie has speed and size working in his favour. He rushed for 3,494 yards in 35 games (25 starts) with Wisconsin before being drafted in the fourth round.
Picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET 09/18/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.