Two favourites and an underdog make up this week’s NFL parlay.
The pregame narrative: Two undefeated squads meet when the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Los Angeles Chargers and I’m banking points with the road team. Elsewhere, the Cleveland Browns should stifle the New York Giants’ offence and the Detroit Lions are poised to bounce back.
Check out my Week 3 parlay picks for the start of the NFL season.
NFL Week 3 parlay picks
Go to full NFL Week 3 betting markets.
Parlay: Chargers +7.5 + Browns -6 + Lions moneyline (+319)
Chargers +7.5 (-315): Last week our Spencer Closs hit a +468 parlay featuring Steelers moneyline, but I’m fading the Black and Gold this time around.
Pittsburgh’s defence is elite but I can’t trust the offence yet. Even with Justin Fields completing 69.8% of his passes and no turnovers the team has managed just four red zone trips and 31 points.
John Harbaugh already put his stamp on the Chargers: Smashmouth, ground-and-pound football.
Los Angeles is 2-0 and has allowed a combined 13 points to the Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders while averaging 197.5 rushing yards per game.
This contest’s 35.5-point game total is the lowest on the slate and L.A. should at least keep things close in a slog.
Other parlay picks
Browns -6 (-112): With Bryce Young benched, it’s fair to say Daniel Jones is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. You could probably make that argument beforehand too, but I digress.
The sixth-year signal-caller has thrown four touchdowns to eight interceptions in the last two seasons. In that span, he has the fourth-worst EPA per play among QBs with 300-plus snaps (only Young, Mac Jones and Zach Wilson are lower, Per RBSDM.com).
Jones lost his best weapon in Saquon Barkley and struggled to score against the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders.
Now the Giants have to go into Cleveland, where the Browns allowed just 13.9 points per game last year.
Deshaun Watson’s season opener was ugly but he looked a bit better in Week 2. Even if Watson has another meltdown, the Browns’ defence is capable of covering this spread on its own.
Lions moneyline (-150): Last week, the Lions lost a nail-biter to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers despite outgaining them by 245 yards.
For as good as the Arizona Cardinals looked against the Los Angeles Rams — and they looked great — I am thrilled to get the reigning NFC North champs at this price.
Detroit’s offence should be the envy of the league. It has a pair of elite running backs that can rumble behind the NFL’s top offensive line, as well as a bunch of weapons for Jared Goff to throw to.
Arizona can put up points, but Dan Campbell’s squad is capable of winning a shootout.
The Cardinals didn’t have to deal with Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua on Sunday, so I won’t put much stock into them holding L.A. to just 10 points.
They had the second-worst defensive EPA per play in 2023.
NFL picks made at 10:00 a.m. on 09/18/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.