Jackson Merrill and Kyle Tucker headline these Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Merrill is closing in on the NL Rookie of the Year and has a good chance to do damage tonight. Take the over on his bases prop and also back Houston’s Kyle Tucker to go over his.
Check out my Astros vs. Padres prop picks for Sept. 16.
Astros vs. Padres prop picks
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Best Bet: Merrill over 1.5 bases (+140)
Do I think Merrill will win Rookie of the Year? No.
But that has less to do with him and more to do with Paul Skenes having a legendary season. But my opinion on that doesn’t mean much, and the odds would indicate Merrill is going to get the trophy.
The Padres’ centre fielder is -770 at the time of writing thanks to a red-hot second half.
Merrill is slashing .306/.355/.608 since the all-star break with 30 extra-base hits and a team-high 158 wRC+ (17th best in MLB in that span, min. 100 plate appearances).
He’s done most of his damage against righties this year and faces an inconsistent one tonight.
Houston sends rookie Spencer Arrighetti to the bump and he’s looked great at times and horrible at others. He held the Oakland Athletics to two earned runs in 6.2 IP his last time out (though he did give up seven hits) and allowed nine runs in 0.2 IP the outing before that.
Five starts ago he was tagged for seven hits and four earned runs by the Chicago White Sox … but he also shut out the Baltimore Orioles and Philadelphia Phillies since.
All of that’s to say bettors aren’t sure which version of Arrighetti is coming to the bump.
But I do know which version of Merrill will be there — and it’s one that’s batting .309 with a .885 OPS against right-handers this season.
Key stat: Merrill has cleared this line in six of 12 games this month.
Quick picks
Tucker over 1.5 bases (+114): Tucker is a great comp for Merrill moving forward. He’s a power-hitting lefty bat outfielder who doesn’t whiff much and has a great eye.
That makes him a good choice to do damage against righty Yu Darvish this evening.
Tucker hasn’t been his best since returning from the IL on Sept. 6 but he’s still batting .250 with a home run and a double. On the season he’s batting .299 against righties with a monster .653 slugging percentage.
Darvish has been getting tagged lately and I want to keep fading. He’s given up 26 hits in his last four starts (16.1 innings pitched) and seven of them have left the ballpark.
MLB picks made at 12:02 p.m. ET on 09/16/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.