Kyle Tucker and Corbin Burnes headline today’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Tucker is back from the IL and is primed to mash against a pitcher he’s dominated in the past. Burnes was slumping in August but has turned a corner and should pitch deep into his start against the Detroit Tigers.
Check out these MLB prop bets for September 14.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Tucker over 1.5 bases (+104)
Will the real Kyle Tucker please stand up?
Houston’s slugger demolished lefties last season, posting a .300/.367/.567 slash line in 210 plate appearances. This year hasn’t been quite the same.
Tucker is batting .209 against southpaws in 2024 and is .154 since returning from the IL earlier this month.
That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement but tonight presents a perfect opportunity for some positive regression. He faces a struggling Tyler Anderson who gets the ball for the Los Angeles Angels.
Anderson has a 5.40 ERA across his last seven outings and has routinely been lit up by Tucker and the Houston Astros.
Tucker is 7-for-12 against Anderson with a double, two triples, and a home run.
And it’s not like Tucker is completely floundering at the plate. He has a hit in three straight games with one going for extra bases and is batting .263 in August.
This is a player who is in MVP conversations when healthy. Now that he’s got a handful of games under his belt I expect him to heat up heading into the postseason.
Key stat: Anderson has a 4.67 ERA at home this season and has given up 14 earned runs in his last three starts at Angel Stadium.
Quick picks
Burnes over 17.5 outs (-150): A -150 price tag isn’t pretty but this is a rare case where I believe it’s well worth it.
Burnes was right in the mix for the AL Cy Young award before falling apart in August.
The first year Baltimore Oriole brought a 2.47 ERA into that month and raised it to 3.23 after a string of bad starts.
But he’s looked good in September, giving up one earned run to the Chicago White Sox in 5.0 IP and two earned runs to the Tampa Bay Rays in 6.0 IP.
The Tigers are running hot but aren’t a good team offensively. They rank 21st in batting average (.235) with the eighth-highest K rate (24.1%) against righties.
Burnes has cleared this line in 21 of 29 of his starts.
Diaz over 1.5 bases (-106): Yandy Diaz has murdered lefties this year and today he goes up against a struggling rookie.
Joey Cantillo has a 6.38 ERA for the Cleveland Guardians in five career major-league starts. That’s not a huge sample but the southpaw also posted an underwhelming 4.54 ERA in the minors this season.
Diaz is batting .347 against lefties with a 165 wRC+.
He also has a hit in five straight games, clearing this line three times.
Picks made at 10:06 a.m. ET on 09/14/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.