The San Francisco 49ers welcome Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets to Levi’s Stadium on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Jets fans are hopeful Rodgers can turn back the clock this season but he has a tough first game. I’m fading the four-time MVP and am also backing Deebo Samuel to clear his rushing and receiving total.
Check out my Jets vs. 49ers prop picks for Sept. 9.
Jets vs. 49ers prop picks
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Best Bet: Samuel over 61.5 rushing and receiving yards (-114)
There are plenty of cooks in Kyle Shanahan’s kitchen, but Deebo might be the most dangerous when healthy.
The receiver put up 1,117 scrimmage yards across 15 games (74.5 per game), clearing this mark nine times. That also includes a game against the Cleveland Browns where he was forced to leave in the first quarter with a shoulder injury.
Samuel has explosive playmaking ability and the Niners aren’t shy about using him out wide or in the backfield.
The Jets’ defence, and specifically its secondary, is elite but Sauce Gardner will likely key on Brandon Aiyuk. That should create space for our guy. Samuel doesn’t typically run deep routes either and is more of a yards-after-catch menace.
He finished 12th in YAC last season despite only playing 14 full games.
That’s thanks to owning the No. 1 juke rate on Player Profiler (34.0%) to pair with the 12th-best target separation (2.17). The latter is the average yards of separation from his assigned defender at the moment the pass arrives.
Key stat: Samuel cleared this mark in 64% of games where he played more than a quarter in 2023.
Quick picks
Rodgers under 235.5 passing yards (-114): Rodgers’ Jets debut lasted exactly four snaps before his Achillies tore in prime time.
The fact that he’s ready to go is impressive, but expecting the 40-year-old to turn in a vintage performance right off the bat seems silly.
Rodgers had no preseason snaps and now has to deal with one of the most athletic units in the NFL.
Last year, San Francisco had the third-best scoring defence, generated the seventh-most sacks and was sixth in dropback EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.
The Niners interestingly allowed the third-most completions (410) but the 14th-fewest passing yards per game (214.2). The pass rush gets there and quarterbacks have to dump the ball off quickly.
Rodgers is capable of doing that but I don’t think it will lead to a gaudy yardage total.
Picks made at 11:28 a.m. ET 09/08/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.