The Toronto Blue Jays aim to snap a four-game losing streak today when they play the Atlanta Braves.
The pregame narrative: Jose Berrios and Spencer Schwellenbach take the mound for Toronto and Atlanta, respectively, and both have been in a groove. I expect them to keep scoring low and am taking the over on Berrios’ strikeout total.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Braves on Sept. 7.
Blue Jays picks vs. Braves
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Best Bet: Under 8.5 runs (-115)
Toronto’s offence was on a roll in August but it’s slowed down outside of a few standout performances.
The Jays scored 15 runs against the Minnesota Twins last week and hung nine on the Philadelphia Phillies in a loss on Tuesday.
But both of those games were against unproven rookies — Tyler Phillips and Zebby Matthews — and Toronto has failed to score four runs in seven straight otherwise.
Schwellenbach is also a rookie but he’s no joke.
The 24-year-old righty owns a respectable 3.69 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 16 starts. He’s really found something lately, with a 2.57 ERA and 12.8 K/9 across his last seven. Schwellenbach has held three consecutive opponents (Philadelphia Phillies twice, Minnesota Twins) under three runs.
He has the stuff to keep Toronto’s bats at bay and I like Berrios’ chances of doing the same to Atlanta.
The Braves have been ravaged by injuries this season and are missing Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Ozzie Albies. That immediately takes a lot of pop out of a once formidable lineup.
Berrios has had an up-and-down season but he’s logged six quality starts in his last seven outings and has a 2.31 ERA in that span.
He most recently threw six shutout innings against the Twins while allowing just four baserunners.
I’m happy to fade scoring with two solid arms on the mound and two below-average offences at the plate.
Key stat: Toronto has gone under this number in six of its last eight games.
Quick picks
Berrios over 4.5 strikeouts (-136): Berrios doesn’t have elite swing-and-miss stuff but this seems like a manageable line.
He’s gone over this total in eight straight starts, logging six-plus Ks in half of those outings.
The Braves are one of the more undisciplined teams in baseball, owning the 10th-highest chase rate (29.4%) and 10th-lowest chase contact rate (54.6%).
They also have the fourth-highest whiff rate (27.9%) and seventh-highest K rate (24.5%). All of that is to say Atlanta is pretty bad at putting the bat on the ball.
Berrios pitches deep into ball games and that should give him plenty of opportunities to pile up punchouts.
Picks made at 9:24 a.m. on 09/07/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.