The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets meet for a series-deciding matinee at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: This is a big game for New York, which is tied for the National League’s final wild-card spot. The Mets will start Sean Manaea opposite Toronto’s Bowden Francis and I expect them to keep scoring low.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Mets on Sept. 11.
Blue Jays picks vs. Mets
MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here
Best Bet: Francis over 17.5 outs (-114)
I understand the Mets are running hot but this line seems low.
Francis is only a week removed from winning August’s AL Pitcher of the Month honours after posting a 1.06 ERA and 10.32 K/9 rate across five starts. He cleared this line four times, including throwing 8.0 hitless innings against the Los Angeles Angels with 12 strikeouts.
The third-year righty came back down to earth to begin September but still logged a quality start — 6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER — against the Philadelphia Phillies.
All in all, Francis has cleared this line in five straight outings while holding opponents to a .103 batting average and .216 SLG.
New York is 11-4 in its last 15 games but that’s been largely thanks to elite pitching.
During that run the Mets rank a pedestrian 18th in wRC+ (95) and 20th in batting average (.232). Chris Bassitt threw 6.0 innings against them yesterday and Toronto had a bullpen game against them the game before that.
Nine different Jays relievers have combined 12.0 innings in the last two days. They could use a rest and Francis is capable of pitching deep into ballgames.
Key stat: Francis is averaging 21.0 outs across his last five starts.
Quick pick
Under 8 runs (-115): I think Francis will be dealing and that makes the under a nice complimentary play.
Toronto has gone under this line in each of his last five starts, with no game having more than six runs scored.
On the other side, Manaea should do enough to keep the Jays’ bats in check. The lefty owns a 3.43 ERA on the season and has logged five quality starts in his last eight appearances (2.81 ERA in that span).
Toronto hasn’t hit lefties well all season but it’s not worth looking at any of the team’s stats from before the all-star game. Isolated from there onwards, the Jays rank 22nd in wRC+ (93) and 21st in batting average (.230) versus LHP.
Picks made at 8:21 a.m. on 09/11/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.