The Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams kick off their seasons on Sunday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Detroit bounced Los Angeles from the playoffs last season behind a clinical Jared Goff performance. I expect him to take care of the football and am also backing David Montgomery to clear his rushing total.
Check out my Rams vs. Lions prop picks for Sept. 8.
Rams vs. Lions prop picks
Full NFL Week 1 betting markets: Click Here
Best Bet: Montgomery over 55.5 rushing yards (-117)
Detroit’s thunder-and-lightning backfield was a huge part of the team’s success last season.
Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 1,960 rushing yards on 4.6 and 5.1 yards per attempt, respectively.
They have nearly identical rushing totals heading into Sunday Night Football and I’m leaning with Montgomery for a few reasons.
Firstly, Gibbs was dealing with a hamstring injury during the offseason and I don’t expect Dan Campbell to run him into the ground in Week 1. The second-year back doesn’t carry an injury designation into this game but missed a good chunk of practice.
But even if Gibbs was at 100% I’d still like Montgomery to perform — after all he was dubbed running back “Frankenstein” for a reason.
The Iowa State product averaged 85.6 rushing yards per game across 17 regular season and playoff contests, clearing this line 13 times.
That includes Detroit’s wild-card victory over L.A. when he turned 14 carries into 57 yards and a touchdown.
He’s a bonafide bruiser who’s running behind PFF’s No. 1 ranked offensive line. It also helps the Rams have an Aaron Donald-sized hole to fill on the defensive line.
Key stat: Montgomery averaged the seventh-most rushing yards per game last year.
Quick picks
Goff under 0.5 interceptions (-127): Why have one revenge game when you can have two?
Goff was surgical in the wild-card last season completing 22-of-27 passes for 277 yards and a touchdown without throwing an interception. That netted out to a 121.8 passer rating for the former Ram.
He went through all three playoff games without throwing a pick and only had 12 during 17 starts in the regular season.
All in all, Goff cashed this wager in 60% of games which exceeds the 55.5% implied probability of this wager.
Los Angeles didn’t have a ball-hawking secondary in its first season without Jalen Ramsey and had the ninth-fewest interceptions in 2023 (11).
Goff has turned into a poised pocket passer and I expect him to take care of the football against his old team.
Picks made at 1:48 p.m. ET 09/07/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.