Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.
The Canadian Men’s National Team heads to Kansas City to take on the USA in an international friendly.
The pregame narrative: Canada is coming off a Copa America where it advanced to the semifinal in its debut. The Americans, meanwhile, were bounced in the group stage. That forced the team’s hand in sacking Greg Berhalter. I expect Jesse Marsch to take advantage of a chaotic situation.
Check out this USA vs. Canada best bet for the international friendly on Sept. 7.
USA vs. Canada best bet
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
The Americans bowed out of Copa America after a 1-0-2 group stage, marking the end of the massively disappointing Berhalter era. In his six years and change with the team, he posted a 44-17-13 record, winning the Nations League and Gold Cup.
But Berhalter failed to make noise in the biggest competitions which is all that matters.
USA went 4-1-2 against Canada with him in charge but one of those wins required extra time, meaning the Canadians cashed this wager in four of those seven games.
And now there is more chaos for the Stars and Stripes. Mauricio Pochettino was seemingly a lock to join as the new head coach, but he still hasn’t formally signed a contract.
The Argentinian manager took Tottenham to the Champions League final in 2019 and won Ligue 1 and the Coupe de France with PSG after that. He would be a huge upgrade and a potential program-changing hire but as of right now interim coach Mikey Varas is running the show.
Varas has to work with a thin squad with Gio Reyna injured and Timothy Weah and Weston McKennie absent.
Marsch, meanwhile, has Canada’s full arsenal at his disposal.
Alphonso Davies, Cyle Larin, Jacob Shaffelburg and Jonathan David are all playing and they were instrumental in that deep Copa America run.
Look for Les Rouges to pull off an upset.
Key stat: Canada has won or tied four of its last five games.
Two teams with Super Bowl aspirations meet for the NFL’s first-ever game in Brazil.
The pregame narrative: The Green Bay Packers ended last season on a tear thanks to stellar quarterback play from Jordan Love. The Philadelphia Eagles cratered in large part because of an awful defence. I expect Love to have a night and am backing Saquon Barkley Smith to clear his rushing total.
Check out my Packers vs. Eagles prop picks for Sept. 6.
So how good was Love coming down the stretch? Take a look at his numbers over Green Bay’s final eight regular season games:
268.8 yards/game
70.25% completion rate
18 TDs, one INT
112.7 passer rating
That’s not just good, that’s prime Aaron Rodgers stuff. Maybe now it makes sense that the Packers drafted Love as Rodgers’ heir apparent.
Anyhow, he cleared this line in five of those eight games while landing on exactly 256 yards in one of the outliers (a 33-10 win over the Minnesota Vikings).
The Eagles’ secondary allowed the second-most passing yards per game last season and had the fifth-worst defensive dropback EPA per play (0.094, per RBSDM).
Most of that unit returns, albeit with a new defensive coordinator. The floor was so low that I expect some improvement from Philly but this still should be a more-than-manageable line for Love who has Green Bay’s entire arsenal at his disposal.
Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave both missed significant time down the stretch in 2023. They’ll be suiting up on Friday alongside Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed and I expect that group to give the Eagles secondary fits.
Key stat: Love had the second-best EPA per play over the final eight weeks of the season.
Quick picks
Barkley over 83.5 rushing and receiving yards (-113): Barkley is in new threads this season and I like his chances of having a strong debut.
The two-time Pro Bowler was single-handedly keeping the New York Giants in games last season, averaging 88.7 scrimmage yards behind a horrible offensive line.
I expect Philadelphia to let him loose against a team which struggled to contain RBs last year.
The Packers allowed the 11th-most rushing yards and 12th-most receiving yards to tailbacks in 2023, according to Draftedge.com.
De’Andre Swift was Philly’s top RB last season and he averaged 78.9 yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. Swift has always been a “Barkley Lite” and I expect the real deal to take things to another level.
Formula 1 is considered by many to be the pinnacle of auto racing.
A truly global phenomenon, F1 sees 10 teams each comprised of a pair of drivers race on 22 iconic circuits around the world.
It’s an exciting time for the sport and with growing appeal led by a burgeoning Netflix series, interest in betting has followed suit. In this guide, we’ll break down how you can bet on F1.
How to bet on F1
The F1 season starts in March and runs into the fall, giving bettors plenty of opportunities to get in on the action. Outside of a mid-season break throughout August, there are races at least every second week and sometimes on back-to-back weekends.
Understanding what to bet on once those races begin is key, so we will run through the most popular Formula 1 markets to wager on.
Outrights
Betting outright in F1 is simple — all you have to do is pick who’s going to win the race. But keep this in mind: Formula 1 is an interesting sport because there are very few drivers who realistically have a chance at competing for an outright win.
There have only been seven unique winners during the 2024 season. Verstappen has won seven races and Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris have each won twice.
More often than not, Verstappen finds himself as the odds-on favourite. Photo by Hassan Ammar/AP.
That means four drivers won 81% of all races. Racers can be very dominant throughout a season.
Outright betting odds
Ahead of a race, sportsbooks will assign odds to each driver that reflect their probability of winning. Below is an example of what those odds could be set at.
Max Verstappen (Pole) -120 Charles Leclerc (P2) +160 Lando Norris (P4) +650 Lewis Hamilton (P8) +1500
Starting position is immensely important in deciding the odds. The pole position is declared the day prior to the race after a series of time trials known as qualifying. Whoever starts in P1 has a considerably better chance of winning, especially at tracks like Monaco, where there are fewer opportunities to overtake.
If you bet a driver outright before the time trial and they then went on to take pole, you would have gotten them at a substantially better price. For example: If Verstappen was +200 before qualifying, he could move to -120 after attaining the pole position.
In the above example, Verstappen at -120 means you would have to wager $120 to make a $100 profit. At -120 odds, the operator would be deeming his probability of winning at greater than 50%. A $300 payout on a $100 wager a +200 odds is much better value.
Don’t sweat if you don’t like the value presented in the outright market because there are many more ways to bet on F1.
Top finishes
Top finishes are a way of betting the race without having to pick the outright winner. You can bet on drivers to make the podium (top 3), finish top 5, or finish in the points (top 10).
Once again, being aware of a driver’s qualifying position is important.
Norris and Verstappen would be considered favourites to make the podium, with odds of around -300. There’s lots of value to be found outside of those two, though, as 11 different drivers made the podium in 2023.
George Russell or Lance Stroll could sit at +400 or more, meaning a $100 bet could net you $400 of profit if they finished in third place or better.
Finishing 10th may seem mundane to the uninitiated viewer, but that is the spot where teams begin to rack up points for the Constructors’ Championship.
Teams such as Williams, Kick Sauber, and Alpine are constantly fighting to get in the top 10 for points.
How to bet on F1 props
There are a number of ways to bet on F1 props. You can bet on how many yellow flags there will be, how many cars will retire, or who will retire first.
Some props, such as retired cars or flags, would be presented as an over/under bet. That means you would have to choose one side of the bet.
An example would be betting on whether the total number of retired cars went over or under a certain number set by the sportsbook. We’ll say it’s 2.5. That means if three cars failed to finish the race, the over would win. If two cars or fewer retired, the under would cash. The over and under would each be assigned odds.
Another prop bet example is choosing the driver who finishes with the fastest lap. Additionally, you can wager on the nationality of the winning driver.
The odds for that could look something like this:
Dutch (-110) British (+150) Spanish (+1500) Canadian (+5000)
Hamilton, Norris and George Russell are all British. Verstappen, the only Dutch driver, is so skilled that he would still be an odds-on favourite in this prop category.
Canada, meanwhile, has one driver in Stroll. He doesn’t regularly compete for wins, which is why Canada would be long shots here.
How to bet on F1 futures
Futures betting lets you wager on who will win races… in the future. And no, DeLorean doesn’t have an F1 team.
The most popular futures bet in F1 is who will win the World Championship. Drivers are awarded points based on finishing position each race. Whoever amasses the most by the end of the year is crowned champion.
Verstappen will typically be the favourite in this category.
If Verstappen were to win the first two races, you could probably find good value in another Drivers’ Champion future.
The kings of F1, Lewis Hamilton (left) and Max Verstappen (right) celebrate after podium finishes. Photo by Francois Mori/AP.
You can also make a futures bet on who will win the Constructors’ Championship. This follows the same point system but is for teams rather than drivers.
For example, Red Bull and McLaren would likely sit at around +110 each. Ferrari and Mercedes would be further back at around +800.
You can place futures bets on individuals as well, such as whether a particular driver will win a race during the season. It wouldn’t make much sense to place this bet on Verstappen because the odds wouldn’t lead to a strong payout. That’s because his probability of winning would be so high.
But you would be able to find solid value for other drivers that are down a tier from the favourites. An example would be Oscar Piastri who has a win this season.
Head to head
Head-to-head betting in F1 pits two drivers against each other and gives corresponding odds based on their implied probability of winning.
Odds are determined by starting position, weather conditions and car form.
Let’s use Norris and Leclerc as an example and assume they are p3 and p4 to start the race — relatively even positions. For our purposes, we’ll say Norris is a slight -130 favourite while Leclerc is a +140 underdog.
The driver who finishes the race in a higher spot wins the bet. If that was Leclerc at +140, a $100 bet on him would net a $140 profit.
Note: A driver would automatically win, provided they finished the race, if the other was forced to retire.
Live betting on F1
Live betting provides an opportunity to bet on a race once it has already started. The live betting markets in F1 are typically outrights and podium finish.
Odds can change drastically during the race. For example, let’s assume Verstappen has the pole position and is -120 to win prior to the race starting. If he were to get passed by three cars on the first lap, his live odds would lengthen — perhaps to around +230.
This would open an opportunity to bet on Verstappen at a better number if you thought he was going to win. There’s a reason live odds change frequently, however, as the chance of a racer winning from fourth place is much lower than from first.
The most electric atmosphere in sports might not be the Super Bowl or a Game 7 playoff matchup. It could actually be the World Darts Championship.
Thousands gather to watch legends play in a high-pressure environment, which makes for appointment viewing.
In this guide, we’ll break down the rules of the sport and how you can bet on darts.
How to bet on darts
There’s a lot of variance in how darts are played and the format changes on a tournament-to-tournament basis. In this article, we’ll refer to the common game of 501, in which each player takes a turn with three darts, reducing their score from 501 down to zero.
The player who reaches zero first wins what’s called a leg. Some matches are set in best-of-11 formats, so the first player to win six legs would win.
In championship tournaments, you must win sets, which are comprised of a certain number of legs. Just be aware of how the tournament is scored prior to placing bets.
Match winner
This is the simplest way to bet on darts. If you correctly pick the player who wins the match, you win the bet. Think of it as a moneyline bet.
One player will be denoted as the favourite, with a (-) sign next to their odds, and one will be the underdog, with a (+) sign. The odds vary depending on who is playing, but let’s use a match between Joe Cullen and Michael van Gerwen as an example. Here’s how it could look:
Joe Cullen (+120) vs. Michael van Gerwen (-150).
A $100 bet on Cullen would win $120. A $150 bet on van Gerwen, however, would be required to profit $100.
The odds tell you how much you would profit depending on the stake you wagered and the implied probability of each player winning.
-250 odds: You would win $100 on a $250 wager (71.43% implied probability). -110 odds: You would win $100 on a $110 wager (52.38% implied probability). +175 odds: You would win $175 on a $100 wager (36.36% implied probability). +300 odds: You would win $300 on a $100 wager (25% implied probability).
How to bet on darts: Handicaps
Think of betting handicaps in darts as spread betting in others sports. Sportsbooks set a projected margin of victory for the favourite, which it must cover to win in handicap markets.
Using the above Cullen vs. MVG example, let’s assume they are playing a best-of-11 match (first to six legs wins). Assuming van Gerwen received a handicap of -1.5, he’d have to win the match by at least two legs to cover.
A final score of 6-4, 6-3 or better would cover van Gerwin’s handicap.
If you wanted to bet on Cullen at +1.5, you could afford for him to lose the contest as long as he kept the scoring within one leg (6-5 loss). An outright win for Cullen would also cover.
Handicaps can also be alternated if you believe there will be a blowout. The line can be teased to widen the margin of victory, thus lengthening the odds of the favourite.
Most 180s
To post a 180 — the crowd-pleasing, maximum score for a turn — dart players must hit three triple-20s in succession.
Each player receives odds based on how often they strike 180. Both players can finish the match with an equal number of 180s, so a draw is possible, too.
You can also bet on total 180s, which is typically set around 5.5-7.5 for a best-of-11 bout.
How to bet on darts: Props
There are many props to wager on during a dart match. One popular bet is deciding if there will be a nine-darter or not.
A nine-darter entails winning a match or leg off nine shots, which is three full turns. There are 3,944 possible nine-darter combinations and each one will whip the crowd into a frenzy.
An operator would present the odds like this:
Will a nine-dart finish occur: Yes (+3500), No (-20000).
Correct leg score
This is a way for dart enthusiasts to bet on the exact way a match will shake out.
In a best-of-11 hypothetical match between Michael Smith and Gerwyn Price, a close game would be the most likely outcome and have the shortest odds for this market. You might see a 6-5 outcome listed at +500 or +600 odds.
A 6-0 outcome (which the sportsbook would deem incredibly unlikely) would have much longer odds, perhaps something in the +5000 range.
The odds would fall somewhere in the middle of +600 to +5000 if you bet on a finish between 6-1 to 6-4. It’s also worth noting that you wouldn’t get the same set of odds for each player.
If Price was the favourite, he would have shorter odds for each potential outcome. But predicting the exact score is not easy, which is why the odds would be fairly long no matter which outcome or player you wagered on.
You can also place bets after a dart match has already started. This is known as in-game wagering, which is a market you can read about more in our live betting guide.
Before diving into specific betting strategies, it is best to grasp the basics first. How to understand betting odds is paramount to success.
Sports betting can be intimidating at first glance. Lots of bells and whistles, hundreds of games to choose from, as well as fractions and decimal points. But have no fear, the symbols you see in a sportsbook are closer to linguistics than math as this is just the language of sports betting.
How to understand betting odds
When joining a sportsbook, you’ll have an option on how you want your odds to be displayed: American, fractional, or decimal. Choosing your display settings has zero impact on the actual odds — it is for personal preference only.
In this piece, we’ll break down the three ways that odds are displayed: American, fractional, and decimal.
How are odds set?
There are odds for everything. Want to wager on the NFL? There will be odds for that. The same goes for everything from the NHL to F1 — just about any sport you imagine will have accompanying odds.
Regardless of the sport, the bookmakers are placing an implied probability on what will occur based on a massive number of internal and external variables. Sportsbooks consider what will occur in the game to set the opening line. When a certain amount of money gets wagered on an event, these odds can move based on how the sportsbook wants to hedge the action on any event.
The way these odds are displayed are just different ways to read what the operators believe will occur.
American odds
American odds are the most popular in Canada and are often what you will see displayed on social media and advertisements here.
The first thing you need to know about American odds is what the plus and minus signs mean. If you see a bet with a (+) before it, that means the selection is “plus money,” and the return on your bet will equal or surpass your stake placed. If there is a (-) sign before the bet, you are wagering on something with an above 50% implied probability of occurring, and therefore your return will be lower than your stake.
A team or player with a minus sign before its moneyline odds or point spread represents the favourite. You will know who the underdog is based on the plus sign.
American odds are set on a $100 baseline. The larger the number after a (-) sign, the higher the implied probability and the bigger the favourite. Conversely, the larger the number after a (+) sign, the longer the odds are, and the higher the return.
American Odds
Stake
Profit
Implied probability
-300
$300
$100
75%
-150
$150
$100
60%
+100
$100
$100
50%
+200
$100
$200
33.33%
+1000
$100
$1000
9.09%
If you’re betting on a -1000 favourite, sportsbooks are placing a 90.9% probability that team will win. Therefore, you will need to bet $1000 to win $100. If you’re betting on a +235 underdog, a $100 bet will net you a $235 profit. The extra money reflects the sportsbooks belief that the underdog will probably lose.
Fractional odds
Fractional odds are more commonly seen in European sportsbooks and are often associated with sports like horseracing. They might look complicated, but in reality, they’re quite simple. Fractional odds are just the ratio of the amount won to the staked placed.
For example, a 5/2 fractional odds means you would have a return of $5 off a $2 bet for a $3 profit. If you wanted to up the stakes, you would profit $250 on a $100 wager. Five is 2.5x more than two, therefore it would equate to +250 American odds (28.57% implied probability).
Using the same odds in the table above, let’s see how fractional odds would look.
Fractional Odds
American
Stake
Profit
Implied probability
1/3
-300
$300
$100
75%
2/3
-150
$150
$100
60%
1/1
+100
$100
$100
50%
2/1
+200
$100
$200
33.33%
10/1
+1000
$100
$1000
9.09%
Now that we’ve covered the first two, we’ll turn our attention to decimal odds.
Decimal odds
Decimal odds aren’t as commonly used, but some people find it to be the most comprehensive.
It simply represents the amount won per $1 wagered on any event. Therefore, odds of 2.30 would mean a $1 bet returns $2.30, for a profit of $1.30.
Furthermore, a $100 bet returns $230, for a profit of $130.
Decimal
Fractional
American
Stake
Profit
Implied probability
1.33
1/3
-300
$300
$100
75%
1.66
2/3
-150
$150
$100
60%
2.00
1/1
+100
$100
$100
50%
3.00
2/1
+200
$100
$200
28.57%
11.00
10/1
+1000
$100
$1000
9.09%
If you’re still a bit confused on how to understand decimal betting odds, think of it as a math formula:
Total payout = stake x decimal odd number $300 = $100 x 3.0 $133 = $100 x 1.333 $723 = $100 x 7.23
I’m searching for value all over the board to kick off the NFL season.
The pregame narrative: The Miami Dolphins are primed for a hot start against the Jacksonville Jaguars while Justin Jefferson should torch the New York Giants. One ATS pick and one over/under round out these plays.
Check out the best NFL Week 1 best bets for the start of the 2024-25 season.
Miami’s offence was doing things last season that would make the greatest show on turf blush.
It averaged the second-most points per game (29.2), the most yards per game (401.3) and ranked fourth in offensive EPA per play (+0.095), per RBSDM.
The Dolphins cleared this total in nine of 17 games, including each of their first four at home.
That latter point shouldn’t be overlooked. It is sweltering in South Beach right now and the visitors at Hard Rock Stadium notoriously have to sit unshaded in the heat.
Imagine trying to keep up with the likes of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert while dealing with that. Spoiler alert… you can’t.
The Fins put up an absurd 70 points on the Denver Broncos in Week 3 last year and followed that up with 31 points against the New York Giants and 42 against the Carolina Panthers.
But even if this game was played in a neutral-site dome I would love the Dolphins’ chances of lighting up the scoreboard.
The Jaguars gave up the seventh-most passing yards per game last year and absolutely unravelled following their bye week.
Jacksonville went 3-6 down the stretch, giving up 28-plus points five different times. I don’t trust that defence — especially its secondary — to be much better in 2024.
Key stat: Miami averaged 31.9 points per game at home last year.
Quick picks
Jefferson over 6.5 receptions (-106): Going from Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold is a considerable downgrade but Jefferson performed with some questionable QBs last season.
I wouldn’t blame you for thinking that but Bryce Young and the Panthers are well outside their depth in the Superdome.
Carolina was a league-worst 2-15 SU and 4-11-2 ATS last year. The worst part? It didn’t even get a consolation prize after dealing away the 2024 first-overall pick in a package deal for Young.
That’s tracking to be one of the worst NFL trades ever. I don’t believe a franchise can rebound from quickly.
Young ranked last among starters in yards per attempt (5.5) and quarterback rating (73.7) in 2023. Carr had considerably better numbers (7.1 YPA, 97.7 QBR) and has more weapons to get the ball to.
The Saints’ defence was also quietly disruptive, racking up the fourth-most takeaways (29). Young should be in for a tough game.
Cowboys/Browns under 42 points (-110): This is one of the best matchups of Week 1 but don’t expect fireworks.
The Browns and Cowboys ranked first and fourth, respectively, in defensive EPA per play last season.
Cleveland’s defence was especially dominant at home, giving up just 13.9 points per game. That bodes well against a Dallas offence which struggled to perform on the road.
The Cowboys averaged 36.8 points per game at AT&T Stadium and 23.3 points elsewhere.
So why don’t I just back the Browns ATS? Well, I have zero faith in Deshaun Watson.
The QB has played in just 12 games since 2020 and only has 14 touchdowns with a 59.4% completion rate.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels re-ignite the Freeway Series tonight.
The pregame narrative: This hasn’t been much of a rivalry lately. The Dodgers are 18-4 against the Angels since 2020 … not to mention they poached Shohei Ohtani. I expect another rout tonight with Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez leading the charge.
Check out my Dodgers vs. Angels prop picks for Sept. 3.
Ohtani has the NL MVP on lock but Betts was the frontrunner before getting injured.
He hasn’t quite reached those heights since returning to the lineup on Aug. 12 but is still putting up impressive numbers.
L.A.’s shortstop is batting .290 with nine extra-base hits in 20 games. He went 2-for-4 with a double last night and has cashed this wager in three of his last five outings.
It should be open season for Betts and the Dodgers with Reid Detmers pitching tonight.
The southpaw had a 6.14 ERA through 12 starts before being optioned to Triple-A in June. In the minors, Detmers got shelled through his first 11 outings (7.11 ERA) before throwing three consecutive one-run gems (1.29 ERA, 12.42 K/9).
One could argue that Detmers “found it” but I’ll side with a large MLB sample over a three-game minor-league heater all day.
Betts is only 1-for-7 against the lefty but that hit left the ballpark. In general, he’s been quite reliable against LHP, posting a .326/.403/.487 slash line.
Key stat: Betts’ .583 career SLG at Angel Stadium is his sixth-best of any venue.
Quick picks
Hernandez 1+ RBI (+135): You would have every right to be fuming if you bet on Hernandez to record an RBI last night.
The Dodgers beat the Arizona Diamondbacks 11-6 and Teo went 5-for-5 out of the cleanup spot … without driving in a run. That’s very unlikely and won’t stop me from backing him on that market tonight.
Hernandez has a hit in 10 of his last 12 games with one of the exceptions being a blowout loss where he was pulled after one at-bat.
In that span, he has seven RBI.
I already told you why I like Betts to get on base. Ohtani and Freddie Freeman also have solid chances of reaching, owning .325 and .330 OBPs versus lefties, respectively.
Hernandez is batting .308/.370/.609 against southpaws and is 2-of-5 against Detmers. He’s poised to have a night.
The Toronto Blue Jays begin a three-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies at Rogers Centre tonight.
The pregame narrative: Chris Bassitt and Tyler Phillips get the ball for Toronto and Philly, respectively, and they’ve been anything but consistent. I expect both to struggle and am taking the over alongside a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. prop.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Phillies on Sept. 3.
Blue Jays picks vs. Phillies
Best Bet: Over 8.5 runs (-130)
Which version of Bassitt and Phillips are fans going to see tonight?
Let’s start with Bassitt, who has an awful 6.13 ERA over his last 10 starts. The righty has gotten shelled by the likes of the Detroit Tigers and Oakland Athletics while tossing quality starts against the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles.
He’s been a bit of an enigma but has generally looked worse at Rogers Centre. Bassitt’s 4.76 home ERA is notably higher than his 3.65 road ERA.
Toronto has given up an average of 7.0 runs per game in his last five starts at home. Mind you, those include runs after he’s been pulled — but the Jays’ bullpen is among the worst in baseball so we have to factor that in.
Now for Phillips.
The rookie had a spectacular start to his MLB career and then the wheels fell off. He posted a 1.80 ERA across four starts in July but a 13.91 ERA through three starts in August.
He was sent back down to the Triple-A for a pair of starts and didn’t fair much better, posting a 9.35 ERA. But Taijuan Walker has been even worse for Philly and got moved to the bullpen, which opened a spot for Phillips.
This isn’t exactly a soft landing spot.
Toronto has the most home runs (20) with the third-best wRC+ (138) and slugging percentage (.508) in the last two weeks.
Key stat: Each of Phillips’ last three starts had 12-plus runs scored.
Quick pick
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+105): This pick doesn’t need much explaining.
I think Phillips is in for a long night so backing one of the best hitters in baseball makes sense.
Vladdy slashed .375/.454/.673 in August with six multi-hit games in his last eight outings.
He was given a rest day on Sunday along with George Springer and Daulton Varsho and should be fresh heading into a plus matchup at home.
Vladdy’s 1.005 OPS at Rogers Centre is almost 100 points higher than his .906 road OPS.
Getting him at plus money against a struggling pitcher feels like a steal.
The Toronto Blue Jays begin a three-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies at Rogers Centre tonight.
The pregame narrative: Chris Bassitt and Tyler Phillips get the ball for Toronto and Philly, respectively, and they’ve been anything but consistent. I expect both to struggle and am taking the over alongside a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. prop.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Phillies on Sept. 3.
Which version of Bassitt and Phillips are fans going to see tonight?
Let’s start with Bassitt, who has an awful 6.13 ERA over his last 10 starts. The righty has gotten shelled by the likes of the Detroit Tigers and Oakland Athletics while tossing quality starts against the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles.
He’s been a bit of an enigma but has generally looked worse at Rogers Centre. Bassitt’s 4.76 home ERA is notably higher than his 3.65 road ERA.
Toronto has given up an average of 7.0 runs per game in his last five starts at home. Mind you, those include runs after he’s been pulled — but the Jays’ bullpen is among the worst in baseball so we have to factor that in.
Now for Phillips.
The rookie had a spectacular start to his MLB career and then the wheels fell off. He posted a 1.80 ERA across four starts in July but a 13.91 ERA through three starts in August.
He was sent back down to the Triple-A for a pair of starts and didn’t fair much better, posting a 9.35 ERA. But Taijuan Walker has been even worse for Philly and got moved to the bullpen, which opened a spot for Phillips.
This isn’t exactly a soft landing spot.
Toronto has the most home runs (20) with the third-best wRC+ (138) and slugging percentage (.508) in the last two weeks.
Key stat: Each of Phillips’ last three starts had 12-plus runs scored.
Quick pick
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+100): This pick doesn’t need much explaining.
The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs kick off the 2024-25 NFL season on Thursday.
The pregame narrative: A pair of future Hall of Famers headline these prop bets. Derrick Henry has new threads and he should rumble in his Ravens debut. I’m also taking the over on Travis Kelce’s reception prop.
Check out my Ravens vs. Chiefs prop picks for Sept. 5.
The Ravens abandoned the run in last year’s AFC championship game and it came back to bite them.
Baltimore had just 16 rushing attempts and half of those came from Lamar Jackson. The running back room — comprised of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill — combined for three carries and 23 yards in a 17-10 defeat.
So why did John Harbaugh decide to stop pounding the rock? After all, the Ravens averaged a league-best 156.5 rushing yards per game during the regular season.
Your answer is as good as mine … and as good as Henry’s.
The running back was asked if he could have made a difference in last year’s title game and said: “Hell yeah, I wish I could suit up that day watching the game. But now it’s my turn, so (I’ve) got to take advantage of it.”
With a bonafide bell cow in the backfield, I don’t expect Harbaugh to make the same mistake twice.
Henry averaged 68.6 yards per game last year, clearing this mark in nine of 17 games. That was behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. On Baltimore, he should have every opportunity to return to his All-Pro levels of the past.
Since 2019, the former Tennesee Titan has gashed the Chiefs for 458 yards and five touchdowns in four games. He last played KC in 2022 and had 17 carries for 115 yards.
Kansas City’s run defence was elite last year but Henry should see the bulk of carries untill Keaton Mitchell returns from the PUP list late this season. Bet on one of the best ever to make a strong first impression.
Key stat: Henry has cleared this line in five straight games versus KC.
Quick picks
Kelce over 5.5 receptions (-150): Kelce failed to amass 1,000 yards last season for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era.
But he came up clutch when it mattered, hauling in all 11 of his targets in the AFC title game for 116 yards and a touchdown before catching 9-of-10 for 93 yards in the Super Bowl.
Kansas City has a much improved receiving corps to work with this year after acquiring Hollywood Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy — but don’t forget who the top dog is.
Kelce still went over this line in 12 of 19 games last year (postseason and playoffs) while landing on exactly five receptions in three of the outliers.
The Ravens also allowed the 11th-most receptions per game to tight ends, according to DraftEdge.com.
I’ll gladly bet on Kelce to have a huge game even with these juiced odds.
