I’ve got three prop recommendations for Saturday’s MLB slate.
The pregame narrative: Logan Gilbert is going up against a plucky St. Louis Cardinals offence but he still should clear a modest strikeout total. Elsewhere, I’m backing Spencer Torkelson and fading Elly De La Cruz.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 7.
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Best bet: Gilbert over 5.5 strikeouts (-134)
My first thought when I saw Gilbert was playing the Cards was to fade his strikeout total.
St. Louis has the 11th-lowest K rate in baseball (21.6%) and the fifth-lowest K rate against righties since the all-star break (19.9%). But then I looked to see what the line was and saw it at 5.5, which was much lower than I imagined.
Gilbert is a bonafide stud and one of the better swing-and-miss arms out there.
He’s cleared this line in six straight games and 10 of his last 11, ranking in Baseball Savant’s 76th percentile for K rate (26.5%).
I don’t care how disciplined the Cardinals are — if his line is set this low I’m going to take it.
The righty employs a five-pitch mix and has some of the nastiest breaking stuff in the game. His fastball averages at 97 miles-per-hour and his +12 breaking run value is in the 98th percentile.
St. Louis is great at making contact with fastballs but struggles mightily on anything that breaks. Its 34.3% whiff rate against those pitches is the fifth highest in baseball.
Key stat: Gilbert is 21-7 against this line in 2024.
Quick picks
Torkelson over 1.5 bases (+114): Torkelson returned from the IL halfway through August and put up an impressive .306/.368/.577 slash line that month.
He’s hit the ditch since, batting .100 through five games in September but I believe he’s due.
Torkelson does his best work against left-handed pitching and is slugging .842 with a 225 wRC+ against southpaws over the last 30 days. On the season, he’s slugging .578 against lefties and .309 against righties.
Today he goes up against Brady Basso and the Oakland Athletics. Basso is making his second career MLB start after posting an underwhelming 5.19 ERA in Triple-A.
The 26-year-old gave up plenty of hard contact in the minors (2.0 HR/9) and that bodes well for Torkelson.
De La Cruz under 0.5 runs (-127): Fading De La Cruz is risky business but this seems like a nice spot to do it.
The 22-year-old switch hitter struggles mightily to hit left-handed pitching with a .223 batting average and .303 OBP.
He goes up against Jose Quintana who has put together back-to-back solid starts, giving up one earned run in 5.0 IP against the Chicago White Sox after throwing six scoreless innings against the San Diego Padres.
De La Cruz is 1-for-6 lifetime against Quintana and has been held hitless in three of his last six games.
Picks made at 10:39 a.m. ET on 09/07/2024.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.