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NHL opening night picks and predictions Oct. 8: Bet on Florida and Utah to win in regulation

The NHL season begins in earnest on Tuesday with three games, including a playoff rematch between the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers and Boston Bruins.

The pregame narrative: Florida is at home for banner night and has the goaltending advantage. I like the Panthers to win in regulation and for the Utah Hockey Club to win its inaugural game in Salt Lake City.

Check out the best NHL picks for Oct. 8.

NHL picks

Full NHL betting markets: Click here

Best bet: Panthers to win in regulation (+108)

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The Bruins got their guy in net … but he won’t be starting on Tuesday.

Boston inked Jeremy Swayman to an eight-year, $64-million contract, ending a stalemate that lasted throughout training camp and the preseason.

That means Joonas Korpisalo will be tending twine against the defending champs. I have nothing against the Finn but he’s a noticeable downgrade. Korpisalo had a 3.27 GAA and .890 save percentage last season, which ranked 44th and 45th, respectively among all goaltenders.

Granted, he was playing for the Ottawa Senators and they were a defensive mess.

Swayman had a 2.53 GAA (eighth) and .916 SV% (fifth). Sergei Bobrovsky, who starts for Florida, was even better, posting a 2.37 GAA (third) and .915 SV% (seventh).

And if you look at the rest of the roster, Florida is clearly the better team.

The Panthers won the Atlantic Division with 110 points and 52 wins. They also had the second-best 5v5 Corsi rate (55.7%), according to Natural Stat Trick.

Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart all topped 80 points last year while only one Bruin (David Pastrnak, 110) even met the 70-point threshold.

Key stat: The Panthers beat the Bruins 4-2 in the playoffs last year, and each of their wins came in regulation.

Quick picks

Hockey Club to win in regulation (-103): Utah welcomes Chicago for its first-ever game, and the fans should be in for a good one.

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The team formerly known as the Arizona Coyotes hit its stride toward the end of last season, winning 10 of its final 16 games while averaging 3.4 goals per game. For context, the Canucks ranked sixth last year with that same GPG average.

The Hockey Club has a deep, young roster that seemed destined to take the next step and I like their chances of lighting up the defensively inept Blackhawks.

Chicago ranked 29th in GAA (3.52) and 26th in SV% (.897) last year.

Outside of Connor Bedard, the team has no promising young talent upfront. Last year’s Calder winner slots in alongside Ilya Mikheyev and Teuvo Teravainen, who have never scored more than 25 goals apiece.

Picks made at 2:29 p.m. ET on 10/07/2024.

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Patrick Mahomes Week 5 Monday Night Football props: Odds and best bet for Chiefs’ QB vs. Saints

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs look to keep their undefeated record intact on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Mahomes is missing several of his top weapons and takes on a New Orleans Saints team with a formidable defence. The MVP frontrunner is expected to get the job done, though, and his Chiefs are -5.5 favourites at Arrowhead Stadium.

Check out our Patrick Mahomes props, odds and best bet for Week 5 of Monday Night Football.

Patrick Mahomes props

Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Mahomes prop markets	Betting odds
Over 233.5 pass yards	-133
Under 233.5 pass yards	-115
Over 19.5 rushing yards	-109
Under 19.5 rushing yards	-120
Over 255.5. passing/rushing yards	-114
Under 255.5 passing/rushing yards	-114
Over 1.5 passing TDs	-106
Under 1.5 passing TDs	-124
Anytime TD scorer	+300
Over 0.5 interceptions	-121
Under 0.5 interceptions	-107

NFL odds as of 12:30 p.m. ET on 10/07/2024.

Mahomes tops the MVP odds board despite a mediocre start to the season.

And that’s not holding the three-time Super Bowl champion to his own standards — he’s truly been average.

Mahomes has completed 68.6% of his passes for 226.0 yards per game with six touchdowns and five interceptions. He ranks 15th in RBSDM.com’s EPA per play, right in between Justin Fields and Jared Goff.

But KC’s quarterback has engineered game-winning drives when needed, which is worth its weight in gold. Mahomes will be tested on MNF against a Saints defence that allows the seventh-fewest points per game.

Best Mahomes prop bet

Best Bet: Mahomes over 19.5 rushing yards (-109)

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I backed Mahomes to clear his rushing total in my MNF prop bets and same-game parlay. Let’s triple down.

Kansas City is missing Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown. Those are three huge playmakers. With Travis Kelce not performing up to his standards I expect the Saints’ defence, which ranks fourth in EPA per play, to have a solid game plan.

If yards don’t come easy for the Chiefs, Mahomes should need to improvise.

When he needs to get the job done, there are few QBs that are better at extending broken plays. Mahomes has only cleared this line once this season but went over it line in 13 of 20 games last year.

Pick made at 11:59 a.m. ET on 10/07/2024.

Saints vs. Chiefs Week 5 same-game parlay predictions: Bet on New Orleans, Kamara at +320 on MNF

The New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs wrap up NFL Week 5 at Arrowhead Stadium.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are dealing with injuries but Kansas City has lost several key offensive weapons. Back New Orleans to cover an alternate spread alongside player props on Patrick Mahomes and Alvin Kamara.

Check out my Saints vs. Chiefs same-game parlay predictions for Week 5 below.

Saints vs. Chiefs same-game parlay predictions

Full Monday Night Football betting markets: Click here

Parlay: Saints +10.5 + Mahomes over 19.5 rushing yards + Kamara over 3.5 receptions (+320)

Saints +10.5 (-235): I think the Saints are a live dog to win this game, so I love them to cover this teased-up number.

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Kansas City is missing Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice, and Hollywood Brown, all of whom are on the IR.

The offence has done enough to get by but is by no means electric. The Chiefs are averaging just 23.0 points per game while sitting a pedestrian 16th in EPA per dropback, per RBDSM.com. They have failed to cover this spread in 10 straight regular season games and 13 of their last 14 overall.

New Orleans started its year off with a bang but has slowed down since, losing a pair of games decided by less than a field goal to the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons.

Those are two respectable teams and I think the Saints can hang tough even with a rash of injuries to their offensive line.

Other parlay picks

Kamara over 3.5 receptions (-235): If you read my prop bets for this game, you’ll notice some overlap with these next two picks.

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I backed Kamara to clear his 31.5 receiving yard total and am opting for more security with this wager. The Saints’ running back was hyper-active out of the backfield in Week 4, catching seven of nine targets for 42 receiving yards.

Derek Carr has a tendency to check down when defences bring pressure, and Kansas City should have him uncomfortable tonight.

Kamara will benefit from that.

This is a line he’s cleared in 12 of 17 games since the start of last season while averaging 5.4 receptions per game.

Mahomes over 19.5 rushing yards (-109): Mahomes is missing a handful of weapons, and his trusty sidekick Travis Kelce has seemingly lost a step.

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I wouldn’t be surprised if Kelce popped off tonight but also think Mahomes is going to have to manufacture some plays on his own.

The quarterback is an elite scrambler and always seems to get that extra yardage on broken plays when needed. He’s only gone over this line once so far but did clear it in 13 of 20 games last season

Picks made at 10:34 a.m. on 10/07/24.

Saints vs. Chiefs Week 5 MNF prop picks: Back Alvin Kamara and Patrick Mahomes

We’re back to only one Monday Night Football game this week but it’s a good one.

The pregame narrative: The undefeated Kansas City Chiefs host the new-look New Orleans Saints at Arrowhead Stadium. I expect Alvin Kamara to have a big game as a receiver and Patrick Mahomes to clear a modest rushing total.

Check out my Saints vs. Chiefs prop picks for Monday Night Football on Oct. 7.

Saints vs. Chiefs prop picks

Full Monday Night Football betting markets: Click Here

Best Bet: Kamara over 31.5 receiving yards (-112)

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Derek Carr looked like prime Peyton Manning through the first two weeks of the season. But teams have seemingly figured Klint Kubiak’s offence out and he’s reverting back to a check-down artist.

That’s bad for the Saints but is great for those looking to take Kamara’s receiving total.

The running back caught seven of nine targets last week for 42 receiving yards. He went over this total the two games before that, too, logging 40 receiving yards against the Philadelphia Eagles and 65 receiving yards against the Dallas Cowboys.

New Orleans’ offensive line is seriously banged up which means Kansas City’s vaunted front seven should be able to pressure Carr.

That won’t allow for long-developing play actions or deep routes Kubiak likes to employ. It should lend itself to shorter, quicker throws, though, which is Kamara’s bread and butter.

Kansas City has generally been solid at limiting opposing running backs in the passing game but did allow Justice Hill to go over 50 yards in Week 1 and J.K. Dobbins to record 30 yards last week.

The dynamic running back should have more than enough volume to clear this total.

Key stat: Kamara has the third-most targets (30) among running backs, per Fantasy Pros.

Quick picks

Mahomes over 18.5 rushing yards (-113): Mahomes and the Chiefs are undefeated but the offence is facing some serious adversity.

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Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown and Isiah Pacheco are all on the IR and Travis Kelce has lost a step. The offence is going to have to get creative and Mahomes has an uncanny ability to turn broken plays into positive gains.

He hasn’t had to use his legs much this season but this line is well within his range — perhaps on just one carry.

Mahomes went over this line in 13 of 20 regular season and playoff games last year.

Picks made at 1:49 p.m. ET 10/06/2024.

Padres vs. Dodgers Game 2 same-game parlay predictions: Bet on San Diego behind Darvish, Merrill at +350

The San Diego Padres look to level the NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The pregame narrative: Yu Darvish gets the ball for San Diego and I expect him to shove in a winning effort. Take the over on his outs prop and also back rookie Jackson Merrill to round out this +350 same-game parlay.

Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions for Game 2 of their NLDS matchup on Oct. 6.

Padres vs. Dodgers SGP predictions

Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here

Parlay: Padres moneyline + Darvish over 15.5 outs + Merrill over 0.5 hits (+350)

Padres moneyline (+118): San Diego took an early 3-0 lead in Game 1 and then Shohei Ohtani happened.

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The expectant NL MVP blasted a game-tying second-inning home run and Los Angeles eventually held on for an 8-5 win. It was an impressive offensive output from the Dodgers but I can’t see a repeat with Darvish on the mound.

The veteran righty has been solid for the Padres since returning from the IL in September, posting a 3.55 ERA across five starts (all wins).

Darvish’s career-long numbers speak for themselves as do his results against the Dodgers — but more on that later.

On the other side is Jack Flaherty, who was traded to L.A. at the deadline.

Flaherty has a 3.40 ERA since joining the Dodgers but has been hit hard by this Padres lineup before. In 83 plate appearances, San Diego is batting .279 with a .515 SLG against the righty.

San Diego won the regular-season series 8-5 and I expect it to level the NLDS tonight.

SGP legs

Darvish over 15.5 outs (+102): Let’s dig a little deeper into Darvish’s success against L.A.

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Over a massive 264-plate appearance sample size, Darvish has held this lineup to a .201 batting average and .344 slugging percentage. Those are elite numbers.

Ohtani is 1-for-5 against his countrymen, while future hall-of-famer Mookie Betts is just 8-for-40.

Darvish’s last outing against L.A. was superb. He allowed just two hits while striking out seven over 7.0 shutout innings.

San Diego went deep into its bullpen yesterday and would love to stretch Darvish deep into this game. That should be doable considering how good he’s been in the postseason for San Diego.

Darvish has a 2.88 ERA across four postseason starts for the Padres in 2022, clearing this line three times.

Merrill over 0.5 hits (-235): Merrill will probably fall short of securing the NL Rookie of the Year but he would’ve been a slam-dunk winner most seasons.

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The centre fielder hit .292 with 24 home runs and 90 RBI this season. He was one of the league’s best players post-all-star break, ranking 10th in batting average (.314) and 12th in wRC+ (159).

Merrill has only seen Flaherty once and is 1-for-2 with a double. He has great numbers against right-handed pitching (.311/.344/.547 splits) and has been solid through three playoff games.

This seems like a no-brainer addition to the ticket.

Picks made at 10:50 a.m. on 10/06/24.

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Mets vs. Phillies NLDS Game 2 prop picks: Bet on Bryce Harper and fade Luis Severino

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets are back at it for Game 2 of the NLDS.

The pregame narrative: New York won the series opener and now turns to Luis Severino with hopes of taking a commanding lead. I’m fading the righty on his outs total and am also taking the over on Bryce Harper’s bases prop as my best bet.

Check out my Mets vs. Phillies prop picks for Game 2 of their NLDS matchup on Oct. 6.

Mets vs. Phillies prop picks

Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here

Best Bet: Harper over 1.5 bases (+120)

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Harper wasn’t given many opportunities to do damage yesterday.

Philadelphia’s first baseman was walked in his first two at-bats on a total of just nine pitches and struck out with runners on in the fifth. But he still came through with an eighth-inning double to clear this wager.

The Mets can’t pitch around Harper forever and today’s matchup against Severino should be a good one for the two-time MVP.

Severino started Game 1 of New York’s wild-card series against the Milwaukee Brewers and gave up eight hits and four runs over 6.0 IP. He also walked two batters and was lucky things didn’t go worse.

Before that, Severino faced the Phillies in two of his last three regular-season starts, giving up three earned runs in both games. Harper hit a home run off Severino in one and doubled off the Mets’ bullpen in the other.

But I don’t really care who’s on the mound for New York because Harper is a proven playoff performer.

Key stat: Harper is batting .327 with 19 extra-base hits in 31 playoff games since joining the Phillies.

Quick pick

Severino under 15.5 outs (-112): This is a line Severino routinely clears … in the regular season.

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The Mets didn’t use much of their bullpen yesterday after using Kodai Senga for two innings in an opening role followed by David Peterson, another starter, who threw three scoreless.

Head coach Carlos Mendoza will probably be thrilled if Severino can log a full 5.0 IP and I don’t expect him to push his starter further than that.

Philadelphia has hit right-handed pitching well lately. It ranked fifth in team batting average (.258) and wRC+ (115) vs. RHP in September.

Harper should have a big day and I expect guys like Nick Castellanos (7-for-21 vs. Severino) and Trea Turner to step up too.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET 10/06/2024.

UFC 307 picks and predictions: Take the over in Pereira vs. Rountree

This weekend’s UFC 307 is coming to you live from Salt Lake City, Utah.

The pregame narrative: Alex Pereira defends his light heavyweight title against Khalil Rountree, who is on a five-fight winning streak. I’m taking the over on the round total in the main event and am also backing Roman Dolidze to beat Kevin Holland

Check out my UFC 307 picks for Oct. 4.

UFC 307 picks overview

UFC 307 picks	Odds
Pereira/Rountree over 1.5 rounds	-134
Dolidze to win	+120

UFC picks made at 3:00 p.m. ET on 10/04/24.

Go to full UFC betting markets.

UFC 307 picks

Best Bet: Pereira/Rountree over 1.5 rounds (-137)

Pereira has been a wrecking ball since moving up to light heavyweight, boasting a 4-0 record and finishing each of his last three opponents in title fights.

To be fair, the Brazilian was a wrecking ball long before moving up a weight class.

He was a 4-1 as a middleweight in the UFC after being crowned a world champion kickboxer. The only blemish on Pereira’s top-flight ledger is a knockout loss to Israel Adesanya at UFC 287.

Pereira is a -500 favourite to win and the odds would indicate he will do it quickly. But I’m not so sure he’ll be able to put out Rountree before the 2:30 mark of the second round.

The American is a pure striker with a respectable 50.0% significant strike defence. He’s only been knocked out twice and once was when he was caught flush by a Johnny Walker elbow.

Rountree can absorb damage — he is specifically strong at checking kicks — and his southpaw stance may present problems for Pereira.

Don’t be surprised if this fight goes into the championship rounds.

Key Stat: Pereira has knockout power but four of his last six fights have gone over this mark.

Other picks

Dolidze to win (+120): Dolidze snapped a two-fight losing streak with a win via unanimous decision over Anthony Smtih.

Both of his losses before that came by decision (one unanimous) and before that, he had won four straight fights. All of that’s to say the Georgian is consistently competitive in his bouts and is worth backing at plus money.

He takes on Holland who has lost four of his last seven fights. The veteran’s last three wins have all been via finish and Dolidze has never been finished in 16 professional MMA fights (13-3 overall record).

If the American can’t get a knockout, I can’t see him winning. Dolidze is a much more effective grappler and I expect him to take down Holland and drag this one out to a decision.

Shohei Ohtani Game 1 NLDS props and betting markets: Dodgers superstar makes postseason debut vs. Padres

Shohei Ohtani makes his long-awaited postseason debut on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: The expectant NL MVP finished with a flurry, becoming the first player to record 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a season. Now he gets his first taste of the playoffs when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres in the NLDS.

Check out our Ohtani props and odds for his game against the Padres on Oct. 5.

Shohei Ohtani props

Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Shohei Ohtani props	Betting odds
Over 1.5 bases	-107
Under 1.5 bases	-130
Over 0.5 hits	-235
Under 0.5 hits	+175
Over 1.5 hits	+250
Over 0.5 RBI	+140
Under 0.5 RBI	-195
Over 0.5 runs	-139
Under 0.5 runs	+102
To hit a home run	+240
To hit 2+ home runs	+2,000
To steal a base	+210

MLB odds as of 4:25 p.m. ET on 10/04/2024.

Ohtani has lived up to his $700-million contract. And he hasn’t even thrown a pitch yet.

The two-way superstar had a historic offensive season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, posting a .310/.390/.656 slash line in his first year with the Dodgers. He ranked second in home runs (54), RBI (130), and stolen bases (59).

To say Ohtani is peaking at the right time would be an understatement. Check out how he’s performed over his last 10 games.

27-for-43 (.628 batting average)
15 runs scored
12 extra-base hits
20 RBI
Over 0.5 runs in nine of 10 games
Over 1.5 bases in eight of 10 games

Dylan Cease will be tasked with being the first Padres pitcher to contain Ohtani… good luck.

Ohtani best bet

MLB Markets: Click Here | MLB Stats: Click Here

Best bet: Ohtani over 1.5 bases (-107)

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We’ve never seen Ohtani in the postseason but it’s hard to imagine the lights being too bright.

The superstar never seems to shy away from the moment and put together one of the most dominant runs we’ve ever seen to close out the regular season.

That includes a night where he went 6-for-6 with three home runs to crack the 50-50 barrier.

These odds for a bases prop in the playoffs is a rarity these days (almost everything is plus money) but I still think this price is amazing.

Ohtani paced the majors in batting average (.393), slugging percentage (.766) and wRC+ (234) in September. No other player had a wRC+ above 195.

Cease (3.47 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) has had a solid season with great swing-and-miss numbers.

But he’s prone to getting hit for power and ranks in the 32nd percentile for barrel rate and 51st percentile for hard-hit rate on Baseball Savant.

Ohtani is 4-for-15 against Cease with a double and two home runs.

UFC 307 picks and predictions: Take the over in Pereira vs. Rountree

This weekend’s UFC 307 is coming to you live from Salt Lake City, Utah.

The pregame narrative: Alex Pereira defends his light heavyweight title against Khalil Rountree, who is on a five-fight winning streak. I’m taking the over on the round total in the main event and am also backing Roman Dolidze to beat Kevin Holland

Check out my UFC 307 picks for Oct. 4.

UFC 307 picks overview

Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

UFC 307 picks	Odds	Bet now ⬇️
Pereira/Rountree over 1.5 rounds	-137	Add to betslip
Dolidze to win	+120	Add to betslip