Avery Perri

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys meet on Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Justin Fields’ tenure as a Steeler has been off to a great start and I expect him to gash Dallas through the air and on the ground. Take the over on his passing/rushing prop and on Pittsburgh’s team total.

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Cowboys vs. Steelers best bets

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Best Bet: Fields over 238.5 passing and rushing yards (-114)

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The Steelers started slow against the Colts last week but Fields still had a historic day.

The fourth-year quarterback became the first player in franchise history with over 300 passing yards, 50 rushing yards and two or more total touchdowns in a single game.

I expected Fields to be a threat on the ground, especially behind Arthur Smith’s run-heavy play calling, but I’ve been impressed by his passing ability.

Fields completed 25-of-32 passes for 245 yards in Week 3 against the Los Angeles Chargers and 22-of-34 passes for 312 yards the following week against the Indianapolis Colts. His 74.8% completion rate ranks second among all quarterbacks.

Neither of those teams are slouches defensively, and Dallas’ defence hasn’t been the same since Dan Quinn left last offseason.

The Cowboys rank 23rd in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per play (Los Angeles is second, Indianapolis is 17th) and particularly struggle to contain the rush.

Dallas is last in defensive EPA per rush and is allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game. Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson are both questionable and Najee Harris hasn’t been performing that well.

I expect Smith to dial up a few designed runs for Fields and believe the QB will amass enough yards through the air to comfortably clear this number.

Key stat: Three straight quarterbacks have cleared this line against the Cowboys.

Quick Pick

Steelers over 22.5 points (-120): If Fields is buzzing, Pittsburgh should have enough red zone chances to hit this over.

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The Cowboys have a rest advantage but will be missing some key players on the defensive side of the ball. Demarcus Lawrence is out and Micah Parsons is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury. In the secondary, DaRon Bland is on the IR while Trevon Diggs and Caelen Carson are questionable.

Dallas has allowed opponents to score on 75.0% of its trips to the red zone. That’s tied for the third-worst mark in the NFL.

Pittsburgh ranks a middling 15th in red zone scoring attempts per game (3.0) but has been improving week-over-week.

Picks made at 10:35 a.m. ET 10/04/2024.

The NFL heads to London in Week 5 and I want in on a trend of low-scoring overseas games.

The pregame narrative: The New York Jets don’t inspire me offensively but their defence should hold the Minnesota Vikings in check during a tough travel week. Elsewhere, ride with the Indianapolis Colts over the winless Jacksonville Jaguars.

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NFL Week 5 best bets

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Best Bet: Jets/Vikings under 40.5 points (-112)

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Last year, four of the five games played overseas (London or Germany) went under 40.5 points. I expect that trend to continue when two great defences meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday.

The Vikings have ridden Sam Darnold to a 4-0 start but we shouldn’t undersell how good Brian Flores’ defence has been.

Minnesota tops the league in RBSDM’s defensive EPA per play and has allowed the fourth-fewest points (14.8) per game. The unit made C.J. Stroud look pedestrian, turned Jordan Love over three times, and gave Kyle Shanahan fits.

Now, the Viks get to go up against an offence which hasn’t lived up to the hype.

Truthfully, New York has been jet-lagged all season. That might be a tad on the nose but it struggled to score against the Denver Broncos, as Aaron Rodgers and Co. put up just nine points and 248 yards of offence in an embarrassing loss.

The defence was great, though, only ceding 10 points and 186 yards.

New York has allowed the fifth-fewest points (15.5) and third-fewest yards (256.5) per game and that’s helped the team to a 2-2 record despite its offensive shortcomings.

Key stat: There has been an average of 23.0 points scored in New York’s last two games.

Quick picks

Colts +3 (-117): Anthony Richardson left early with an injury in Week 4 but it didn’t matter as Joe Flacco came in to dismantle the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers.

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Flacco completed 16-of-26 yards for 168 yards and two touchdowns (no interceptions) in the win. Richardson was practicing Monday and his availability for Sunday’s contest is unknown.

But do you know what is known? How awful the Jaguars are.

Jacksonville is the league’s last winless team and it has some flat-out embarrassing losses on its ledger. The team was rocked by the Buffalo Bills and has failed to put up more than 20 points all season long.

Trevor Lawrence has the second-lowest completion percentage among all starters and the defence has struggled to make key stops. The Jaguars are 4-1 in their last five against the Colts but I can’t put any faith in them right now.

I’d like to see Flacco start but am still confident if Richardson gets the call.

NFL picks made at 2:02 p.m. on 10/02/24.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons kick off Week 5 with an NFC South showdown.

The pregame narrative: Baker Mayfield has the Buccaneers buzzing atop the division. I want in on Tampa Bay’s team total against a defence that has looked iffy at best. Also, expect Bucky Irving to take control of the backfield.

Check out my Buccaneers vs. Falcons best bets for the Week 5 Thursday Night Football matchup.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons best bets

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Best Bet: Buccaneers over 20.5 points (-124)

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It’s time we put some respect on the Buccaneers’ name.

Tampa Bay is 3-1 with impressive wins on its ledger. It just rolled the Philadelphia Eagles, 33-16, and beat the Lions in Detroit two weeks before that. Even its 37-20 season-opening win over the Washington Commanders has aged well.

Sure, the Eagles were missing a bunch of key players on offence, but why does that matter? This isn’t a spread or moneyline bet. If anything, Atlanta’s offence showing up would lead to a favourable game script.

Mayfield just threw for 347 yards and accounted for three TDs in a game where Tampa Bay was up 24-0 halfway through the second quarter.

The Bucs are more than capable of scoring 21 points over the full 60 minutes.

Divisional matchups are always touch but I don’t have much faith in the Falcons’ defence. They rank a pedestrian 19th in yards allowed per game (336.5) and sit 23rd in defensive EPA per play (+0.028), according to RBSDM.com.

Atlanta held the Pittsburgh Steelers under this mark in Week 1 but still lost when Chris Boswell kicked six field goals for an 18-10 win. Since then, the Falcons’ opponents have scored 21+ points in every game.

Key stat: Atlanta has allowed 21+ points in five of its last six games dating back to 2023.

Quick Pick

Irving over 41.5 rushing yards (-113): It’s become clear that this should be Irving’s backfield.

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The rookie has accumulated 203 yards on 35 rushes (5.8 yards per carry), clearing this total in three of four games. Rachaad White, who was spectacular in 2023, has put up just 115 yards on 41 rushes (2.8 yards per carry).

Irving’s 41.5-yard rushing line for TNF is set eight yards higher than White’s, so this isn’t exactly a hot take.

But on a short week, Irving should have at least a 50/50 split with Tampa Bay’s other tailback. Irving played in 42% of snaps against the Eagles, which was his highest share to date.

Atlanta ranks 24th in defensive EPA per dropback.

Picks made at 9:09 a.m. ET 10/01/2024.