The NFL heads to London in Week 5 and I want in on a trend of low-scoring overseas games.
The pregame narrative: The New York Jets don’t inspire me offensively but their defence should hold the Minnesota Vikings in check during a tough travel week. Elsewhere, ride with the Indianapolis Colts over the winless Jacksonville Jaguars.
Check out these NFL Week 5 best bets.
NFL Week 5 best bets
Go to full NFL Week 5 betting markets.
Best Bet: Jets/Vikings under 40.5 points (-112)
Last year, four of the five games played overseas (London or Germany) went under 40.5 points. I expect that trend to continue when two great defences meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday.
The Vikings have ridden Sam Darnold to a 4-0 start but we shouldn’t undersell how good Brian Flores’ defence has been.
Minnesota tops the league in RBSDM’s defensive EPA per play and has allowed the fourth-fewest points (14.8) per game. The unit made C.J. Stroud look pedestrian, turned Jordan Love over three times, and gave Kyle Shanahan fits.
Now, the Viks get to go up against an offence which hasn’t lived up to the hype.
Truthfully, New York has been jet-lagged all season. That might be a tad on the nose but it struggled to score against the Denver Broncos, as Aaron Rodgers and Co. put up just nine points and 248 yards of offence in an embarrassing loss.
The defence was great, though, only ceding 10 points and 186 yards.
New York has allowed the fifth-fewest points (15.5) and third-fewest yards (256.5) per game and that’s helped the team to a 2-2 record despite its offensive shortcomings.
Key stat: There has been an average of 23.0 points scored in New York’s last two games.
Quick picks
Colts +3 (-117): Anthony Richardson left early with an injury in Week 4 but it didn’t matter as Joe Flacco came in to dismantle the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers.
Flacco completed 16-of-26 yards for 168 yards and two touchdowns (no interceptions) in the win. Richardson was practicing Monday and his availability for Sunday’s contest is unknown.
But do you know what is known? How awful the Jaguars are.
Jacksonville is the league’s last winless team and it has some flat-out embarrassing losses on its ledger. The team was rocked by the Buffalo Bills and has failed to put up more than 20 points all season long.
Trevor Lawrence has the second-lowest completion percentage among all starters and the defence has struggled to make key stops. The Jaguars are 4-1 in their last five against the Colts but I can’t put any faith in them right now.
I’d like to see Flacco start but am still confident if Richardson gets the call.
NFL picks made at 2:02 p.m. on 10/02/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.