The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons kick off Week 5 with an NFC South showdown.
The pregame narrative: Baker Mayfield has the Buccaneers buzzing atop the division. I want in on Tampa Bay’s team total against a defence that has looked iffy at best. Also, expect Bucky Irving to take control of the backfield.
Check out my Buccaneers vs. Falcons best bets for the Week 5 Thursday Night Football matchup.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons best bets
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Best Bet: Buccaneers over 20.5 points (-124)
It’s time we put some respect on the Buccaneers’ name.
Tampa Bay is 3-1 with impressive wins on its ledger. It just rolled the Philadelphia Eagles, 33-16, and beat the Lions in Detroit two weeks before that. Even its 37-20 season-opening win over the Washington Commanders has aged well.
Sure, the Eagles were missing a bunch of key players on offence, but why does that matter? This isn’t a spread or moneyline bet. If anything, Atlanta’s offence showing up would lead to a favourable game script.
Mayfield just threw for 347 yards and accounted for three TDs in a game where Tampa Bay was up 24-0 halfway through the second quarter.
The Bucs are more than capable of scoring 21 points over the full 60 minutes.
Divisional matchups are always touch but I don’t have much faith in the Falcons’ defence. They rank a pedestrian 19th in yards allowed per game (336.5) and sit 23rd in defensive EPA per play (+0.028), according to RBSDM.com.
Atlanta held the Pittsburgh Steelers under this mark in Week 1 but still lost when Chris Boswell kicked six field goals for an 18-10 win. Since then, the Falcons’ opponents have scored 21+ points in every game.
Key stat: Atlanta has allowed 21+ points in five of its last six games dating back to 2023.
Quick Pick
Irving over 41.5 rushing yards (-113): It’s become clear that this should be Irving’s backfield.
The rookie has accumulated 203 yards on 35 rushes (5.8 yards per carry), clearing this total in three of four games. Rachaad White, who was spectacular in 2023, has put up just 115 yards on 41 rushes (2.8 yards per carry).
Irving’s 41.5-yard rushing line for TNF is set eight yards higher than White’s, so this isn’t exactly a hot take.
But on a short week, Irving should have at least a 50/50 split with Tampa Bay’s other tailback. Irving played in 42% of snaps against the Eagles, which was his highest share to date.
Atlanta ranks 24th in defensive EPA per dropback.
Picks made at 9:09 a.m. ET 10/01/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.