The San Diego Padres are one win away from the NLDS.
The pregame narrative: Michael King decimated the Atlanta Braves yesterday, racking up 12 strikeouts in his MLB playoff debut. I expect Joe Musgrove to finish the job and am also taking Jackson Merrill’s RBI prop at a nice number
Check out my Braves vs. Padres prop picks for Game 2 of their wild-card series on Oct. 2.
Braves vs. Padres prop picks
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Best Bet: Musgrove over 5.5 strikeouts (-112)
This line looks really appealing following King’s masterclass.
Atlanta was helpless against the righty, and it’s not like we didn’t see it coming. Our Chris Toman took the over on King’s 5.5 strikeout total while I teased that line down to 4.5 in a +300 same-game parlay, which also hit.
King’s stuff was a big factor in those wagers but so was Atlanta’s predisposition. The Braves had the 10th-highest K rate against righties this season.
Now they have to go up against Musgrove, who is a great swing-and-miss arm in his own right.
The righty has been lights out since returning from the IL in August. In nine starts, Musgrove has a 2.15 ERA and has struck out six-plus batters seven times.
The only thing working against this play would be San Diego’s willingness to turn to the bullpen. The Padres got 7.0 IP from King yesterday and didn’t play on Monday. The NLDS won’t start until Saturday so Mike Shildt might be inclined to have a short leash.
But I’m not so sure that will be necessary. San Diego’s pen is good, not great, and Musgrove has pitched 6.0+ innings in six of his last seven.
Shildt should let him eat.
Key stat: Musgrove has a 25.0% K rate against this Braves lineup (92 plate appearances), per Baseball Savant.
Quick pick
Merrill 1+ RBI (+240): Paul Skenes is my NL Rookie of the Year but Merrill was really close to snatching that crown.
The star outfielder slashed .292/.326/.500 with 24 home runs and 90 RBI this season. Merrill was one of the league’s best players following the all-star break, ranking 10th in batting average (.314) and 12th in wRC+ (159).
He has an enviable position in San Diego’s lineup, batting fifth behind Luis Arraez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jurickson Profar, and Manny Machado.
That quartet has reached base safely 17 times in 45 plate appearances against Max Fried (.377 OBP), who starts for the Braves today.
Merrill is also 2-for-2 against the southpaw.
Picks made at 10:30 a.m. ET 10/02/2024.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.