The San Diego Padres look to level the NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The pregame narrative: Yu Darvish gets the ball for San Diego and I expect him to shove in a winning effort. Take the over on his outs prop and also back rookie Jackson Merrill to round out this +350 same-game parlay.
Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions for Game 2 of their NLDS matchup on Oct. 6.
Padres vs. Dodgers SGP predictions
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Parlay: Padres moneyline + Darvish over 15.5 outs + Merrill over 0.5 hits (+350)
Padres moneyline (+118): San Diego took an early 3-0 lead in Game 1 and then Shohei Ohtani happened.
The expectant NL MVP blasted a game-tying second-inning home run and Los Angeles eventually held on for an 8-5 win. It was an impressive offensive output from the Dodgers but I can’t see a repeat with Darvish on the mound.
The veteran righty has been solid for the Padres since returning from the IL in September, posting a 3.55 ERA across five starts (all wins).
Darvish’s career-long numbers speak for themselves as do his results against the Dodgers — but more on that later.
On the other side is Jack Flaherty, who was traded to L.A. at the deadline.
Flaherty has a 3.40 ERA since joining the Dodgers but has been hit hard by this Padres lineup before. In 83 plate appearances, San Diego is batting .279 with a .515 SLG against the righty.
San Diego won the regular-season series 8-5 and I expect it to level the NLDS tonight.
SGP legs
Darvish over 15.5 outs (+102): Let’s dig a little deeper into Darvish’s success against L.A.
Over a massive 264-plate appearance sample size, Darvish has held this lineup to a .201 batting average and .344 slugging percentage. Those are elite numbers.
Ohtani is 1-for-5 against his countrymen, while future hall-of-famer Mookie Betts is just 8-for-40.
Darvish’s last outing against L.A. was superb. He allowed just two hits while striking out seven over 7.0 shutout innings.
San Diego went deep into its bullpen yesterday and would love to stretch Darvish deep into this game. That should be doable considering how good he’s been in the postseason for San Diego.
Darvish has a 2.88 ERA across four postseason starts for the Padres in 2022, clearing this line three times.
Merrill over 0.5 hits (-235): Merrill will probably fall short of securing the NL Rookie of the Year but he would’ve been a slam-dunk winner most seasons.
The centre fielder hit .292 with 24 home runs and 90 RBI this season. He was one of the league’s best players post-all-star break, ranking 10th in batting average (.314) and 12th in wRC+ (159).
Merrill has only seen Flaherty once and is 1-for-2 with a double. He has great numbers against right-handed pitching (.311/.344/.547 splits) and has been solid through three playoff games.
This seems like a no-brainer addition to the ticket.
Picks made at 10:50 a.m. on 10/06/24.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.