The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets are back at it for Game 2 of the NLDS.
The pregame narrative: New York won the series opener and now turns to Luis Severino with hopes of taking a commanding lead. I’m fading the righty on his outs total and am also taking the over on Bryce Harper’s bases prop as my best bet.
Check out my Mets vs. Phillies prop picks for Game 2 of their NLDS matchup on Oct. 6.
Mets vs. Phillies prop picks
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Best Bet: Harper over 1.5 bases (+120)
Harper wasn’t given many opportunities to do damage yesterday.
Philadelphia’s first baseman was walked in his first two at-bats on a total of just nine pitches and struck out with runners on in the fifth. But he still came through with an eighth-inning double to clear this wager.
The Mets can’t pitch around Harper forever and today’s matchup against Severino should be a good one for the two-time MVP.
Severino started Game 1 of New York’s wild-card series against the Milwaukee Brewers and gave up eight hits and four runs over 6.0 IP. He also walked two batters and was lucky things didn’t go worse.
Before that, Severino faced the Phillies in two of his last three regular-season starts, giving up three earned runs in both games. Harper hit a home run off Severino in one and doubled off the Mets’ bullpen in the other.
But I don’t really care who’s on the mound for New York because Harper is a proven playoff performer.
Key stat: Harper is batting .327 with 19 extra-base hits in 31 playoff games since joining the Phillies.
Quick pick
Severino under 15.5 outs (-112): This is a line Severino routinely clears … in the regular season.
The Mets didn’t use much of their bullpen yesterday after using Kodai Senga for two innings in an opening role followed by David Peterson, another starter, who threw three scoreless.
Head coach Carlos Mendoza will probably be thrilled if Severino can log a full 5.0 IP and I don’t expect him to push his starter further than that.
Philadelphia has hit right-handed pitching well lately. It ranked fifth in team batting average (.258) and wRC+ (115) vs. RHP in September.
Harper should have a big day and I expect guys like Nick Castellanos (7-for-21 vs. Severino) and Trea Turner to step up too.
Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET 10/06/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.