This weekend’s UFC 307 is coming to you live from Salt Lake City, Utah.
The pregame narrative: Alex Pereira defends his light heavyweight title against Khalil Rountree, who is on a five-fight winning streak. I’m taking the over on the round total in the main event and am also backing Roman Dolidze to beat Kevin Holland
Check out my UFC 307 picks for Oct. 4.
UFC 307 picks overview
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| UFC 307 picks | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Pereira/Rountree over 1.5 rounds | -137 | Add to betslip |
| Dolidze to win | +120 | Add to betslip |
UFC picks made at 3:00 p.m. ET on 10/04/24.
Go to full UFC betting markets.
UFC 307 picks
Best Bet: Pereira/Rountree over 1.5 rounds (-137)
Pereira has been a wrecking ball since moving up to light heavyweight, boasting a 4-0 record and finishing each of his last three opponents in title fights.
To be fair, the Brazilian was a wrecking ball long before moving up a weight class.
He was a 4-1 as a middleweight in the UFC after being crowned a world champion kickboxer. The only blemish on Pereira’s top-flight ledger is a knockout loss to Israel Adesanya at UFC 287.
Pereira is a -500 favourite to win and the odds would indicate he will do it quickly. But I’m not so sure he’ll be able to put out Rountree before the 2:30 mark of the second round.
The American is a pure striker with a respectable 50.0% significant strike defence. He’s only been knocked out twice and once was when he was caught flush by a Johnny Walker elbow.
Rountree can absorb damage — he is specifically strong at checking kicks — and his southpaw stance may present problems for Pereira.
Don’t be surprised if this fight goes into the championship rounds.
Key Stat: Pereira has knockout power but four of his last six fights have gone over this mark.
Other picks
Dolidze to win (+120): Dolidze snapped a two-fight losing streak with a win via unanimous decision over Anthony Smtih.
Both of his losses before that came by decision (one unanimous) and before that, he had won four straight fights. All of that’s to say the Georgian is consistently competitive in his bouts and is worth backing at plus money.
He takes on Holland who has lost four of his last seven fights. The veteran’s last three wins have all been via finish and Dolidze has never been finished in 16 professional MMA fights (13-3 overall record).
If the American can’t get a knockout, I can’t see him winning. Dolidze is a much more effective grappler and I expect him to take down Holland and drag this one out to a decision.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.