We’re back to only one Monday Night Football game this week but it’s a good one.
The pregame narrative: The undefeated Kansas City Chiefs host the new-look New Orleans Saints at Arrowhead Stadium. I expect Alvin Kamara to have a big game as a receiver and Patrick Mahomes to clear a modest rushing total.
Check out my Saints vs. Chiefs prop picks for Monday Night Football on Oct. 7.
Saints vs. Chiefs prop picks
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Best Bet: Kamara over 31.5 receiving yards (-112)
Derek Carr looked like prime Peyton Manning through the first two weeks of the season. But teams have seemingly figured Klint Kubiak’s offence out and he’s reverting back to a check-down artist.
That’s bad for the Saints but is great for those looking to take Kamara’s receiving total.
The running back caught seven of nine targets last week for 42 receiving yards. He went over this total the two games before that, too, logging 40 receiving yards against the Philadelphia Eagles and 65 receiving yards against the Dallas Cowboys.
New Orleans’ offensive line is seriously banged up which means Kansas City’s vaunted front seven should be able to pressure Carr.
That won’t allow for long-developing play actions or deep routes Kubiak likes to employ. It should lend itself to shorter, quicker throws, though, which is Kamara’s bread and butter.
Kansas City has generally been solid at limiting opposing running backs in the passing game but did allow Justice Hill to go over 50 yards in Week 1 and J.K. Dobbins to record 30 yards last week.
The dynamic running back should have more than enough volume to clear this total.
Key stat: Kamara has the third-most targets (30) among running backs, per Fantasy Pros.
Quick picks
Mahomes over 18.5 rushing yards (-113): Mahomes and the Chiefs are undefeated but the offence is facing some serious adversity.
Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown and Isiah Pacheco are all on the IR and Travis Kelce has lost a step. The offence is going to have to get creative and Mahomes has an uncanny ability to turn broken plays into positive gains.
He hasn’t had to use his legs much this season but this line is well within his range — perhaps on just one carry.
Mahomes went over this line in 13 of 20 regular season and playoff games last year.
Picks made at 1:49 p.m. ET 10/06/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.