Two AFC heavyweights meet in Sunday’s afternoon slate when the Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills.
The pregame narrative: Both teams are 3-1 but I’m banking points with the visitors by teasing Buffalo up as an underdog. I also like Josh Allen to clear his rushing total and Nico Collins to be active in Houston’s passing game.
Check out our Bills vs. Texans predictions for the Week 5 matchup on Oct. 6.
Bills vs. Texans SGP predictions
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Parlay: Bills +7.5 + Allen over 29.5 rushing yards + Collins over 5.5 receptions + Under 56.5 points (+425)
Bills +7.5 (-335): Buffalo is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Baltimore Ravens where Lamar Jackson and Co. rushed for 271 yards in a 35-10 rout.
The team’s rush defence was exposed but I don’t think we’re in for a repeat in Houston.
Joe Mixon is doubtful and Dameon Pierce is questionable. That means another week of a Cam Akers-led backfield — and the results have been ugly.
Houston ranks last in rushing EPA per play since Mixon was sidelined and the Texans managed just 101 rushing yards on 26 carries last weekend.
The Bills have a respectable secondary and I expect Allen to rebound on the other side of the ball. Prior to last week’s blowout, Buffalo had covered this number in 22 straight games (regular season and playoffs).
SGP legs
Allen over 29.5 rushing yards (-115): Allen hasn’t had a monster game on the ground yet but he’s been quietly productive, averaging 26.5 yards on 4.8 yards per carry.
Buffalo’s quarterback has cleared this line in two of four games. He wasn’t asked to run at all against the Miami Dolphins a week after he tweaked the wrist on his left hand, but had six carries for 44 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars after that, so I’m not worried.
Last year, Allen went over this mark in 10 of 19 games.
Houston ranks 23rd in defensive EPA per rush and is dealing with several injuries at linebacker and on the defensive line.
This should be a good spot for him to rumble.
Collins over 5.5 receptions (-150): Collins has firmly established himself as one of the best receivers in football.
Last year, he recorded 1,279 receiving yards and eight touchdowns which somehow wasn’t enough to get on the NFL Top 100 or crack a Pro Bowl, but I digress.
Through four games, he’s on pace to shatter that yardage mark. Collins has a league-high 489 receiving yards, sitting third in targets (43) and fourth in receptions (30).
Stefon Diggs hasn’t cut into his production and I don’t think C.J. Stroud will be itching to feed Diggs to fuel some sort of ‘revenge game’ narrative.
Houston’s run game should struggle, and that means Collins will be getting the rock early and often.
Under 56.5 points (-360): Both teams have enviable offences but this is a lot of points.
Houston hasn’t quite found its footing yet, averaging just 19.8 points per game. All four of its games have gone under this total.
Buffalo erupted for 30-plus points in its first three games but it played some bottom-feeding defences.
The Texans have held four straight opponents to 20 points or fewer at NRG Stadium and I expect another solid performance.
Picks made at 11:50 a.m. on 10/04/24
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.