Avery Perri

Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 22: Back Siakam, Sabonis and Smith Jr.

NBA prop bets

A matchup between the Indiana Pacers and Sacramento Kings is the focus of today’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Pascal Siakam and Domantas Sabonis are running hot and I expect each of them to have big games in exploitable matchups. Elsewhere, back Jabari Smith Jr. from deep against the Toronto Raptors.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 22.

NBA prop bets

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Embed: #104192

Best bet: Siakam over 20.5 points (-125)

For better or worse, Siakam has been Indiana’s lead man this season.

The former Raptor is averaging team highs in points (20.1) and field goal attempts (14.6) while shooting 52.6% from the field and 42.6% from deep.

Tyrese Haliburton is breaking out of his shooting slump but is still an unpredictable scorer with a pass-first mindset.

Siakam has cleared this total in four of his last five games and took a season-high 22 shots against the Phoenix Suns on Thursday (Haliburton took just nine).

With a high-scoring floor and a favourable matchup, Spicy P should stay hot.

  • The Kings rank 26th in mid-range defence (44.2%), per Cleaning the Glass.
  • Siakam takes 41% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 94th percentile among all NBA players.

Key stat: Siakam scored 22 points on 10-of-16 shooting in his only matchup against the Kings since joining Indiana.

Quick picks

Sabonis over 39.5 PRA (-125): On the other end of the court, Sabonis is having one of the best months of his career:

  • 23.0 PPG
  • 14.0 RPG
  • 5.4 APG
  • 5-4 against this line, 37+ PRA in eight games

The big man is either clearing this total or is right there on any given night. The Pacers’ rebounding and defence are suspect so this should be a good spot for him to stay hot.

Indiana has the third-worst rebounding rate (47.8%) and fifth-worst mid-range defence (44.2%) in basketball.

Sabonis ranks second in rebounding (13.3/game) and takes 29% of his shots from the midrange.

Smith over 1.5 threes (-134): Smith doesn’t take a ton of 3s but he’s fairly accurate and has a fantastic matchup this evening.

The Houston Rockets power forward is shooting 36.4% from deep and has cleared this line in nine of his last 10 starts — hitting three-plus 3s five times.

Tonight he takes on a Raptors team giving up the 10th-most 3s per game to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

Smith canned multiple 3s in both games against Toronto last season.

Picks made at 9:31 a.m. ET on 12/22/2024.

Patriots vs. Bills Week 16 same-game parlay predictions: Back Buffalo to cover, Allen to score at +300

NFL Betting Canada

The Buffalo Bills are massive home favourites against the New England Patriots in Week 16 on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: I expect Buffalo to cover a two-touchdown spread and Josh Allen to continue his scoring binge. Drake Maye will almost certainly be playing from behind, putting an alternate passing total within reach.

Check out my Patriots vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions for Sunday, Dec. 20 at Highmark Stadium.

Patriots vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions

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Embed: #104133

Parlay: Bills -13.5 + Allen anytime TD + Maye over 174.5 passing yards (+300)

Bills -13.5 (-120): The Bills just waltzed into Detroit and steamrolled the NFC-leading Lions.

The box score might read 48-42 but Buffalo had that game put away with a 21-point lead in the dying minutes of the third quarter.

Detroit managed to rally late which was to be expected from the NFL’s top scoring offence.

But the Patriots don’t have 42 points in their bag — they don’t even have half of that. New England is averaging 17.0 PPG, which is the second-lowest mark in the NFL.

Buffalo is a perfect 6-0 at home, with a +17.3 average margin of victory. Don’t overthink what should be a laugher.

Other parlay picks

Allen anytime TD (-152): I can’t say I’m thrilled with the way Allen is playing these days… but that’s only because I’m holding a Saquon Barkley MVP ticket at 65-to-1.

Buffalo’s quarterback has practically made that wager worthless. Allen is on a rampage, scoring a rushing touchdown in five straight games and eight total in that span.

He’s also making things happen through the air but I like him to stay hot near the goal line.

The 6-foot-5, 237-pound battering ram isn’t afraid to call his own number.

Allen’s 17 rushes within the 10-yard line are second to only Jalen Hurts among quarterbacks and are tied with players like Jahmyr Gibbs and Alvin Kamara.

Maye over 174.5 passing yards (-315): Buffalo gives up the eighth-most passing yards per game (227.8) mostly because its opponents are playing catch up.

New England won’t be able to run the ball and bleed clock if its down big like I expect, meaning Maye will have to sling it.

And the rookie QB has done well to produce behind an awful offensive line.

He has 200-plus passing yards in four straight games and has cleared this total in every contest he’s played start to finish.

Picks made at 2:26 p.m. on 12/20/24.

Top NFL Week 16 TD picks: Back Tee Higgins and Jalen Hurts to score on Sunday

NFL Week 16 TD picks

Two wide receivers and one quarterback make up this week’s NFL TD picks.

The pregame narrative: Jalen Hurts is on a roll and has a fair price to find pay dirt against the Washington Commanders. Elsewhere, Tee Higgins and Drake London have my attention.

Check out the best NFL Week 16 TD picks for Sunday’s football games.

NFL Week 16 TD picks

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Best bet: Hurts anytime TD (-134)

Hurts has been playing MVP-calibre ball during Philadelphia’s 10-game winning streak.

  • 14 passing TDs, one interception
  • 115.5 passer rating
  • 12 rushing TDs

He’s cashed this bet in eight of those games, which isn’t surprising considering how often the quarterback calls his own number.

Hurts has 24 rushing attempts from within the 10-yard line in the last 10 games. That’s more than anyone in the NFL not named Josh Jacobs.

For some added context, Saquon Barkley — his teammate and the best RB in the league — has just 16 carries within the 10-yard line in that span.

The Commanders have exceeded all expectations this season but their middle-of-the-pack defence doesn’t scare me.

Washington ranks 25th in defensive EPA per rush and 29th in yards per attempt (4.8).

Key stat: Hurts has six rushing TDs in eight career games against Washington.

Quick picks

Higgins anytime TD (+110): I backed Higgins to score last week and he came through with this 38-yard grab against the Tennessee Titans:

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1868377473593061615

I’ll go back to the well when the Cincinnati Bengals host an awful Cleveland Browns team.

Higgins has scored in four of his last five games and is wreaking havoc as teams send extra bodies to try to stop Ja’Marr Chase.

The dynamic WR2 ranks ninth in red zone targets (19) despite missing five games with an injury.

His 6-foot-4 frame makes him a go-to option in that area of the field but he can also rip off a long score as seen above.

London anytime TD (+100): London will have a new quarterback under centre with Kirk Cousins benched in favour of Michael Penix Jr.

If you’re put off by that change, you shouldn’t be.

Cousins was in disastrous form with just one touchdown pass — caught by London — and nine interceptions in his last five games.

The wheels fell off the veteran quickly and Penix should be able to breathe new life into the Atlanta Falcons offence when they host the New York Giants.

The G-Men are on a nine-game losing streak and just surrendered five passing touchdowns to Lamar Jackson.

London has the fourth-most red zone targets in the NFL (20). He’s a good candidate to be the recipient of Penix’s first TD pass.

Picks made at 1:29 p.m. ET on 12/20/2024.

Top NFL Week 16 TD picks: Back Tee Higgins and Jalen Hurts to score on Sunday

NFL Week 16 TD picks

Two wide receivers and one quarterback make up this week’s NFL TD picks.

The pregame narrative: Jalen Hurts is on a roll and has a fair price to find pay dirt against the Washington Commanders. Elsewhere, Tee Higgins and Drake London have my attention.

Check out the best NFL Week 16 TD picks for Sunday’s football games.

NFL Week 16 TD picks

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Embed: #104109

Best bet: Hurts anytime TD (-136)

Hurts has been playing MVP-calibre ball during Philadelphia’s 10-game winning streak.

  • 14 passing TDs, one interception
  • 115.5 passer rating
  • 12 rushing TDs

He’s cashed this bet in eight of those games, which isn’t surprising considering how often the quarterback calls his own number.

Hurts has 24 rushing attempts from within the 10-yard line in the last 10 games. That’s more than anyone in the NFL not named Josh Jacobs.

For some added context, Saquon Barkley — his teammate and the best RB in the league — has just 16 carries within the 10-yard line in that span.

The Commanders have exceeded all expectations this season but their middle-of-the-pack defence doesn’t scare me.

Washington ranks 25th in defensive EPA per rush and 29th in yards per attempt (4.8).

Key stat: Hurts has six rushing TDs in eight career games against Washington.

Quick picks

Higgins anytime TD (+116): I backed Higgins to score last week and he came through with this 38-yard grab against the Tennessee Titans:

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1868377473593061615

I’ll go back to the well when the Cincinnati Bengals host an awful Cleveland Browns team.

Higgins has scored in four of his last five games and is wreaking havoc as teams send extra bodies to try to stop Ja’Marr Chase.

The dynamic WR2 ranks ninth in red zone targets (19) despite missing five games with an injury.

His 6-foot-4 frame makes him a go-to option in that area of the field but he can also rip off a long score as seen above.

London anytime TD (+115): London will have a new quarterback under centre with Kirk Cousins benched in favour of Michael Penix Jr.

If you’re put off by that change, you shouldn’t be.

Cousins was in disastrous form with just one touchdown pass — caught by London — and nine interceptions in his last five games.

The wheels fell off the veteran quickly and Penix should be able to breathe new life into the Atlanta Falcons offence when they host the New York Giants.

The G-Men are on a nine-game losing streak and just surrendered five passing touchdowns to Lamar Jackson.

London has the fourth-most red zone targets in the NFL (20). He’s a good candidate to be the recipient of Penix’s first TD pass.

Picks made at 11:49 a.m. ET on 12/20/2024.

Best NFL Week 16 prop bets: Bet on Barkley, Robinson and Jeudy to have big games

Super Bowl MVP picks

Three big names headline these NFL Week 16 prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Jerry Jeudy is having a breakout season and I expect him to stay hot despite a quarterback change. Two running backs — Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson — have my attention against suspect defences.

Check out the best NFL Week 16 prop bets for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 16 prop bets

Go to full NFL Week 16 betting markets.

Best bet: Jeudy over 62.5 receiving yards (-120)

Jeudy won’t have Jameis Winston under centre this week as the journeyman signal-caller has been benched in favour of Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

That’s probably a bad thing for the wideout’s production considering Winston loved to let it fly.

But I don’t envision the Cleveland Browns completely abandoning the pass game.

The Cincinnati Bengals score in droves which will likely force the Browns into doing the opposite. With Nick Chubb out, a Jerome Ford-led backfield won’t be enough to keep pace with Joe Burrow and Co.

And Jeudy has been on a rampage over his last seven games:

  • 112.3 yards per game
  • 9.9 targets per game
  • 7-0 against this line with 70+ receiving yards in 6/7 games

The fifth-year receiver is finally looking like a true No. 1 and this matchup is oozing with potential.

Also, David Njoku missed practice on Thursday, which means even more targets could be coming Jeudy’s way.

Key stat: Cincinnati is allowing the most passing yards per game (271.4) and ranks 26th in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback.

Quick picks

Barkley over 95.5 rushing yards (-120): This is a huge number but Barkley isn’t your run-of-the-mill player.

The first-year Philadelphia Eagle leads the NFL in carries (285), rushing yards (1,688), and rushing yards per game (120.6).

He’s averaging 5.9 yards per attempt and has cleared this mark in seven of his last nine games. That includes a 146-yard, two-TD performance against the Washington Commanders in Week 11.

Washington’s rush defence ranks 29th in yards per rush (4.8) and 23rd in rush success rate (42.4%).

Barkley’s MVP case is on life support but I expect him to keep the conversation alive with a statement game.

Robinson over 21.5 receiving yards (-118): Robinson is only in his second season — and is two years younger than Michael Penix Jr. — but he should be a player the rookie quarterback can lean on.

The dynamic tailback has fallen under this total in back-to-back games but had cleared it in nine of 12 prior, and is averaging 29.3 receiving yards on the season.

The New York Giants rank 11th in blitz rate (27.5%) and 13th in pressure rate (23.4%) so I anticipate Penix will be instructed to get the ball out quickly.

New York allows the sixth-most receiving yards per game to opposing RBs (40.29), per CBS Sports.

Picks made at 3:16 p.m. ET on 12/19/2024.

Bucks vs. Cavaliers same-game parlay predictions Dec. 20: Back Giannis on the glass, Garland at +320

Bucks vs. Cavaliers predictions

The Milwaukee Bucks will be shorthanded in their first game since winning the NBA Cup.

The pregame narrative: Damian Lillard is out, which is partially why I’m taking the Cleveland Cavaliers to win and the under on a teased-up game total. Prop bets on Giannis Antetokounmpo and Darius Garland round out this +320 wager.

Check out my Bucks vs. Cavaliers same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 20.

Bucks vs. Cavaliers predictions

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Parlay: Cavaliers moneyline + Under 230.5 points + Antetokounmpo over 11.5 rebounds + Garland over 14.5 points (+320)

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Cavaliers moneyline (-375): The Bucks are fresh off an NBA Cup victory but I’ll fade them tonight.

And that’s not exactly going out on a limb. Cleveland tops the NBA with a 23-4 record and owns the best net rating in the Eastern Conference (+10.3).

The Cavs are 14-1 at home while the Bucks are 4-7 on the road.

Milwaukee is 0-2 against Cleveland this season and will be without Lillard, who’s averaging 25.7 points per game and scored 41 and 36 against the Cavs.

Giannis is the best player on the court but won’t be able to do it all against Cleveland’s elite starting five and deep bench.

SGP legs

Under 230.5 points (-220): Milwaukee is missing a big-time scorer who doesn’t play much defence — that should immediately guide bettors toward the under.

Even with Lillard on the court, the Bucks have morphed into a strong defensive team.

  • In the last 15 games, Milwaukee has the seventh-best defensive rating in basketball.
  • The Bucks have the fourth-highest unders rate (57.7%) in the league.

Cleveland is a solid defensive team in its own right, with the ninth-best defensive rating and seventh-lowest opponent field goal percentage.

The under is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these teams with nine of those matchups going under this alternate total.

Antetokounmpo over 11.5 rebounds (-134): The Cavaliers are a solid rebounding team but the Greek Freak is matchup-proof.

Giannis is averaging exactly 11.5 rebounds per game — a benchmark he’s hit in four straight years and five of the last six — and is coming off a 19-board performance in the NBA Cup final.

He’s gone over this mark in four of his last five against the Cavaliers, averaging 15.0 rebounds per game and landing on 11 the one time he fell short.

His floor as a rebounder is high, recording double-digit boards in 19 of 23 games.

Garland over 14.5 points (-375): The last time Garland played the Bucks he dropped a season-high 39 points and shot 7-of-11 from deep.

That marked the fifth time in his last six meetings against Milwaukee where he scored at least 20 points.

The Bucks give up the most points per game to point guards, according to Fantasy Pros, and I expect Garland to clear this total even if Lillard’s replacement is more defensively responsible.

Cleveland’s floor general is averaging 20.3 PPG and has 15-plus points in 18 of 26 starts.

Picks made at 10:43 a.m. on 12/20/24.

Best NFL Week 16 prop bets: Bet on Barkley, Robinson and Jeudy to have big games

Super Bowl MVP picks

Three big names headline these NFL Week 16 prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Jerry Jeudy is having a breakout season and I expect him to stay hot despite a quarterback change. Two running backs — Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson — have my attention against suspect defences.

Check out the best NFL Week 16 prop bets for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 16 prop bets

Go to full NFL Week 16 betting markets.

Embed: #104050

Best bet: Jeudy over 61.5 receiving yards (-115)

Jeudy won’t have Jameis Winston under centre this week as the journeyman signal-caller has been benched in favour of Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

That’s probably a bad thing for the wideout’s production considering Winston loved to let it fly.

But I don’t envision the Cleveland Browns completely abandoning the pass game.

The Cincinnati Bengals score in droves which will likely force the Browns into doing the opposite. With Nick Chubb out, a Jerome Ford-led backfield won’t be enough to keep pace with Joe Burrow and Co.

And Jeudy has been on a rampage over his last seven games:

  • 112.3 yards per game
  • 9.9 targets per game
  • 7-0 against this line with 70+ receiving yards in 6/7 games

The fifth-year receiver is finally looking like a true No. 1 and this matchup is oozing with potential.

Also, David Njoku missed practice on Thursday, which means even more targets could be coming Jeudy’s way.

Key stat: Cincinnati is allowing the most passing yards per game (271.4) and ranks 26th in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback.

Quick picks

Barkley over 97.5 rushing yards (-115): This is a huge number but Barkley isn’t your run-of-the-mill player.

The first-year Philadelphia Eagle leads the NFL in carries (285), rushing yards (1,688), and rushing yards per game (120.6).

He’s averaging 5.9 yards per attempt and has cleared this mark in seven of his last nine games. That includes a 146-yard, two-TD performance against the Washington Commanders in Week 11.

Washington’s rush defence ranks 29th in yards per rush (4.8) and 23rd in rush success rate (42.4%).

Barkley’s MVP case is on life support but I expect him to keep the conversation alive with a statement game.

Robinson over 22.5 receiving yards (-115): Robinson is only in his second season — and is two years younger than Michael Penix Jr. — but he should be a player the rookie quarterback can lean on.

The dynamic tailback has fallen under this total in back-to-back games but had cleared it in nine of 12 prior, and is averaging 29.3 receiving yards on the season.

The New York Giants rank 11th in blitz rate (27.5%) and 13th in pressure rate (23.4%) so I anticipate Penix will be instructed to get the ball out quickly.

New York allows the sixth-most receiving yards per game to opposing RBs (40.29), per CBS Sports.

Picks made at 3:16 p.m. ET on 12/19/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec 19: Bet on Kevin Durant, Victor Wembanyama on Thursday

NBA prop bets

Kevin Durant and Victor Wembanyama headline Thursday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: I’m taking two of the league’s most physically gifted players to clear their point totals against bad defences.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Dec. 19.

NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets.

Best bet: Durant over 24.5 points (-130)

This seems like a smash spot for Durant, who enters Thursday’s contest against the Indiana Pacers averaging a team-high 25.7 points per game.

The veteran has had injury problems this season but played north of 33 minutes in both games since returning on Dec. 13. In those contests, he scored 30 and 20 points against the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers, respectively.

The Phoenix Suns have been off since Sunday, so KD will be well-rested tonight.

And Indiana is a team bettors should circle when looking to take overs. The Pacers play at the sixth-fastest pace and have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the NBA.

But the main reason I love this wager is because of a soft spot in Indiana’s defence:

  • Indiana has the fifth-worst mid-range defence (44.2%), according to Cleaning the Glass.
  • Durant takes 51% of his shots from the mid-range, which ranks in the 96th percentile of all NBA players.

I expect Durant to go off in a game that could turn into a track meet.

Key stat: Indiana allows the most points per game to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Quick picks

Wembanyama over 23.5 points (-125): Wembanyama has found his stroke after a slow start to the season. Check out his numbers over the last 12 games:

  • 28.1 PPG
  • 4.0 threes on 10.3 attempts
  • 20+ points in 11/12 games
  • 25+ points in 8/12 games

The 7-foot-4 phenom is a matchup nightmare for any defence and has done a surprising amount of damage from beyond the arc.

The Atlanta Hawks — who the Spurs host tonight — have the worst 3-point defence in basketball (37.9%) while playing at the third-fastest pace.

I don’t want to pay the -157 juice accompanying the over on Wembanyama’s 2.5 total for made 3s, so I’m riding with his point total instead.

Picks made at 3:53 p.m. ET on 12/19/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec 19: Bet on Kevin Durant, Victor Wembanyama on Thursday

NBA prop bets

Kevin Durant and Victor Wembanyama headline Thursday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: I’m taking two of the league’s most physically gifted players to clear their point totals against bad defences. Elsewhere, I like Detroit’s Jalen Duren to have himself a night.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Dec. 19.

NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets.

Best bet: Durant over 24.5 points (-129)

This seems like a smash spot for Durant, who enters Thursday’s contest against the Indiana Pacers averaging a team-high 25.7 points per game.

The veteran has had injury problems this season but played north of 33 minutes in both games since returning on Dec. 13. In those contests, he scored 30 and 20 points against the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers, respectively.

The Phoenix Suns have been off since Sunday, so KD will be well-rested tonight.

And Indiana is a team bettors should circle when looking to take overs. The Pacers play at the sixth-fastest pace and have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the NBA.

But the main reason I love this wager is because of a soft spot in Indiana’s defence:

  • Indiana has the fifth-worst mid-range defence (44.2%), according to Cleaning the Glass.
  • Durant takes 51% of his shots from the mid-range, which ranks in the 96th percentile of all NBA players.

I expect Durant to go off in a game that could turn into a track meet.

Key stat: Indiana allows the most points per game to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Quick picks

Wembanyama over 24.5 points (-114): Wembanyama has found his stroke after a slow start to the season. Check out his numbers over the last 12 games:

  • 28.1 PPG
  • 4.0 threes on 10.3 attempts
  • 20+ points in 11/12 games
  • 25+ points in 8/12 games

The 7-foot-4 phenom is a matchup nightmare for any defence and has done a surprising amount of damage from beyond the arc.

The Atlanta Hawks — who the Spurs host tonight — have the worst 3-point defence in basketball (37.9%) while playing at the third-fastest pace.

I don’t want to pay the -157 juice accompanying the over on Wembanyama’s 2.5 total for made 3s, so I’m riding with his point total instead.

Duren over 20.5 points and rebounds (-117): This isn’t the sexiest pick but Duren should have increased opportunities in a great matchup.

Detroit won’t have backup centre Isaiah Stewart available, meaning our guy will get more run.

Duren has cleared this line in five of his last six games without Stewart, landing on exactly 20 points and rebounds in the outlier.

In those contests, he averaged 14.1 points and 13.5 rebounds while playing 33.8 minutes (he’s averaging 25.6 minutes with Stewart this season).

The Pistons host a Utah Jazz team which allows the second-most points and 11th-most rebounds per game to centres.

Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET on 12/19/2024.

Broncos vs. Chargers Week 16 same-game parlay predictions: Back McConkey and Sutton at +360

Broncos vs. Chargers predictions

The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers kick off Week 16 with a Thursday Night Football showdown at SoFi Stadium.

The pregame narrative: I believe Denver’s defence will reign supreme tonight and that has me backing the Broncos on an alt spread alongside an alt under. Prop bets on Ladd McConkey and Courtland Sutton round out this +360 SGP.

Check out my Broncos vs. Chargers same-game parlay predictions for Thursday Night Football.

Broncos vs. Chargers same-game parlay predictions

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Embed: #103935

Parlay: Broncos +7.5 + Under 44.5 points + Sutton over 49.5 receiving yards + McConkey over 4.5 receptions (+360)

Broncos +7.5 (-295): I’m backing Denver +3 as my best bet tonight — here are the Coles Notes on why I like that play:

  • Los Angeles is averaging 18.5 PPG in its last four games while ranking 30th in RBSDM.com’s offensive EPA per play.
  • Denver has won four straight games while averaging 34.8 points and 329.5 yards per game.
  • The Broncos are a league-best 11-3 ATS and have covered +3 in 6/7 games since losing to the Chargers on Oct. 13.

I’m bullish on Sean Payton’s group winning outright but am buying a boatload of points for security.

Denver covered this number against L.A. earlier this year (23-16 loss) and has only lost by eight-plus points once, on the road to the Baltimore Ravens.

Other parlay picks

Under 44.5 points (-167): The Chargers offence has been a mess since J.K. Dobbins (MCL sprain) went down with an injury.

L.A. has scored 17 points in three straight games while averaging 60.6 yards on the ground.

Denver’s defence is elite — ranking first in EPA per play — largely thanks to its secondary. The front seven is great too and its job will be much easier tonight.

Dobbins went for 96 yards and a touchdown when these teams last met.

Los Angeles’ defence just got smoked by Baker Mayfield but is still tied for the fewest points allowed per game (17.6) with Denver.

I can’t envision a scenario where this turns into a shootout.

McConkey over 4.5 receptions (-315): With no running game to speak of, McConkey should be busy on Thursday.

The rookie has been L.A.’s most reliable receiver and is getting force-fed by Justin Herbert.

He has five-plus catches in four straight games and has cashed this bet in nine of 14 games.

McConkey ranks in the 89th percentile for target share (22.7%) and has 25 more targets (88) than the next-closest Charger (Quentin Johnston, 63), per RotoWire.

Sutton over 49.5 receiving yards (-215): Sutton fell under this total last week, catching just three of his nine targets for 32 yards.

It was a disappointing effort but I’m encouraged by the volume. That marked the seventh straight game where the veteran wideout had eight-plus targets.

Sutton blew by this mark in each of the other six games, logging at least 70 receiving yards.

He gets targeted on 25.6% of routes run (91st percentile) and has an average depth of target of 13.0 yards (81st percentile).

Picks made at 8:53 a.m. on 12/19/24.