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Best NFL Christmas Day prop bets: Back Pacheco, Warren and Collins in Week 17 doubleheader

Christmas Day brings an electric NFL doubleheader loaded with prop betting opportunities.

The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Kansas City Chiefs and I expect two running backs — Jaylen Warren and Isiah Pacheco — to rumble. After that, look for Nico Collins to have a huge game against the Baltimore Ravens.

Check out the best NFL prop bets for the Week 17 action on Dec. 25.

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Best bet: Collins over 6.5 receptions (-112)

The Houston Texans will need Collins at his best down the stretch.

Tank Dell suffered a gruesome knee injury on Sunday which was a big blow to an already thin receiving corps. Stefon Diggs is on the IR and John Metchie has been ruled out, so expect Collins to get plenty of targets.

The fourth-year receiver has already been C.J. Stroud’s go-to guy this season.

Collins leads the Texans in receptions (60), targets (88), yards (909) and touchdowns (six) despite missing five games with a hamstring injury.
He is targeted in 32.5% of his routes run, according to RotoWire, which ranks in the 99th percentile of all receivers.

His target share is sky-high and Dell was in the lineup for every game with Collins except one — and the results were insane.

Collins hauled in 12 of 15 targets for 151 yards and a score against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Dating back to last season, he’s cleared this line in three straight without Dell.

And it’s not like Baltimore’s secondary is elite.

The Ravens give up the sixth-most receptions per game to wide receivers (13.3) and rank 25th in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback.

Key stat: Collins has cleared this line in three straight games without Dell dating back to last season.

Quick picks

Warren over 59.5 rushing and receiving yards (-114): I don’t know how Mike Tomlin can look at the last three games and not give Warren the lion’s share of carries.

Warren: 107 rushing yards (4.3 YPC), 72 receiving yards
Najee Harris: 109 rushing yards (3.5 YPC), 7 receiving yards

The undrafted free agent has been substantially outperforming the former first-round pick and played in a season-high 67% of snaps last Saturday against the Philadelphia Eagles.

So maybe Tomlin is giving Warren a leading role — which would be great for this wager.

Warren has cleared this mark in six of his last seven games despite operating in a timeshare with Harris.

The Chiefs are a nightmare matchup for RBs but this is a manageable line.

Pacheco over 44.5 rushing yards (-112): Pittsburgh’s rush defence is looking awfully suspect lately.

Last weekend, the Steelers gave up 220 rushing yards to Derrick Henry and the Baltimore Ravens. The week before that, they allowed 131 against the Saquon Barkley-led Philadelphia Eagles.

Pacheco is far removed from being Kansas City’s bell cow but he still gets enough carries where clearing this should be a cinch.

Pittsburgh ranks 27th in defensive EPA per rush over the last five games with an opposing RB clearing this mark in every game.

Picks made at 3:30 p.m. ET on 12/23/2024.

Saints vs. Packers Week 16 same-game parlay predictions: Back Jacobs and fade Rattler at +310 on MNF

The Green Bay Packers host the New Orleans Saints for the final matchup of Week 16.

The pregame narrative: New Orleans is missing most of its start power and is a 14.5-point underdog at Lambeau Field. I’m staying away from picking a side and will instead roll with prop bets on Spencer Rattler and Josh Jacobs.

Check out my Saints vs. Packers same-game parlay predictions for Monday Night Football.

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Parlay: Rattler under 179.5 passing yards + Jacobs over 90.5 rushing yards + Jacobs to score (+310)

Rattler under 179.5 passing yards (-124): The Saints will likely be down big, meaning Rattler will have to throw a lot.

I don’t think that will matter though, for a few reasons.

First off, Rattler just isn’t that good. The rookie has fallen under this mark in three straight starts after throwing for 243 yards (on 40 attempts) in his debut.

Week 15 vs. Commanders: 135 yards (10-of-21 passing)
Week 8 vs. Chargers: 156 yards (12-of-24 passing)
Week 7 vs. Broncos: 172 yards (25-of-35 passing)

Green Bay’s secondary has been elite since its Week 11 bye, ranking fifth in RBSDM.com’s EPA per dropback. The Packers rank ninth in pressure rate (22.9%) and I expect Rattler to struggle behind a bad offensive line.

Not to mention Rattler won’t have anyone to throw to. New Orleans is missing Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rasheed Shaheed and Tayson Hill, all of whom are out on Monday.

Other parlay picks

Jacobs over 90.5 rushing yards (-117): This line seems light given Jacobs’ usage and his opponent.

Matt LaFleur has been feeding his bell cow 21.4 carries per game over the last five weeks. Jacobs toted the ball 26 times for 94 yards his last time out, which isn’t super efficient, but still got the job done.

If he gets anywhere near that number of touches he should breeze by this total.

The Saints allow the sixth-most rushing yards per game (134.4) and the most yards per rush (5.0).

Jacobs has cleared this mark in four of his last seven games and Green Bay should be in a run-heavy script all night.

Jacobs to score (-265): Let’s talk more about how important Jacobs has been to Green Bay.

The first-year Packer had a slow start with just two touchdowns in his first seven games. LaFleur admitted he needed to get Jacobs the ball more in the red zone and did just that.

Jacobs has scored 11 times in his last seven games, cashing this bet in five straight.
His 25 rushes within the 10-yard line since Week 8 are the most in the NFL.

Jacobs has the speed to rip off a deep run for a touchdown but he does his best work as a battering ram at the goal line.

Don’t be surprised if he finds the end zone multiple times tonight.

Picks made at 1:40 p.m. on 12/23/24.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 23: Back Pascal Siakam, Evan Mobley to have big nights

I’ve got two prop bets from Thursday’s 14-game, pre-holiday NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Pascal Siakam and Evan Mobley have been producing and find themselves in plus matchups this evening.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 23.

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Best bet: Siakam over 20.5 points (-112)

I took this exact wager yesterday when the Indiana Pacers played the Sacramento Kings and it narrowly missed.

Siakam scored 19 points on 7-of-14 shooting but we need to add some context. He played only 28 minutes in a blowout win, which was his second-lowest mark of the season.

It was an unfortunate beat but should work in our favour tonight, considering the former Toronto Raptor is well-rested heading into a plus matchup.

Siakam is averaging team highs in points (20.1) and field goal attempts (14.6) while shooting 52.5% from the field and 42.5% from deep.

He’s the number one option on a team where Tyrese Haliburton is an unpredictable scorer with a pass-first mindset.

Tonight, the Pacers take on a Golden State Warriors team with a massive weak spot in its defence.

The Warriors rank 29th in mid-range defence (45.1%), per Cleaning the Glass.
Siakam takes 41% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 94th percentile among all NBA players.

Golden State also allows the 10th-most points per game to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Siakam has scored 19-plus points in five of his last six games, clearing this mark four times.

Quick picks

Mobley over 17.5 points (-134): The biggest risk with this play — in my mind — is a blowout.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 14-point favourites against the Utah Jazz, meaning Mobley could find himself on the bench if things get out of hand.

But from a pure numbers perspective, this seems like a great wager:

Mobley is averaging a career-high 18.4 PPG
He’s gone over this mark in 7/10 games
He’s shooting 60.4% from the field this month

On top of his consistent production, he gets a huge plus matchup. The Jazz have the worst midrange (46.2%) and rim (70.9%) defence in basketball and that’s where Mobley takes 91% of his shots from.

Picks made at 12:08 p.m. ET on 12/23/2024.

Suns vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions Dec. 23: Bet on Denver to win, Beal to score at +390

The Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets begin a home-and-home series on Monday at altitude.

The pregame narrative: Denver is playing on a back-to-back but Phoenix is missing Devin Booker. I expect the Nuggets to win and am taking prop bets on Bradley Beal and Nikola Jokic to round out this +390 wager.

Check out my Suns vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 23.

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Parlay: Nuggets moneyline + Jokic over 1.5 threes + Beal over 19.5 points (+390)

Nuggets moneyline (-190): Denver just went to overtime against the New Orleans Pelicans and will be tired tonight but I can’t look past the absence of Booker.

The four-time All-Star was averaging 25.1 points per game and Phoenix just lost to the lowly Detroit Pistons in his first game out.

Things haven’t been going well for the Suns in general, though.

2-5 record in the last seven games
League-worst 9-18 ATS
2-5 ATS as a road underdog

The Nuggets are 3-1 ATS on no rest this season and should be able to pick up a win against a shorthanded opponent.

SGP legs

Jokic over 1.5 threes (-145): This bet is becoming an autoplay for me, especially in a same-game parlay format where the juice is mitigated.

Jokic is averaging a career-best 30.9 points per game while shooting a clinical 50.5% from beyond the arc. Just when you thought the three-time MVP couldn’t get any better, he did.

Jokic has made 2+ threes in 17/23 games this year.
He’s 12-2 against this line in his last 14 games.

Phoenix has the 26th-ranked 3-point defence (37.3%) and gives up the seventh-most 3s per game (13.9). This should be a good spot for Jokic to stay hot.

Beal over 19.5 points (-125): I was looking long and hard at Kevin Durant’s 29.5-point total but will side with Beal instead.

The shooting guard is on a nice run of form since returning from an injury on Nov. 26. He’s averaging 18.6 points on 53.5% shooting in eight games and has scored at least 15 points seven times.

Beal’s floor as a scorer is predictable and he will be taking way more shots without Booker, — who averages 18.2 FGA per game — sidelined.

He has cleared this number in five of his last six games without Booker and scored 26 points without the superstar on Saturday night.

The Nuggets also allow the third-most points per game to shooting guards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Picks made at 11:25 a.m. on 12/23/24.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 23: Back Pascal Siakam, Klay Thompson to have big nights

I’ve got three prop bets from Thursday’s 14-game, pre-holiday NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Pascal Siakam, Klay Thompson and Evan Mobley have all been producing and find themselves in plus matchups this evening.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 23.

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Best bet: Siakam over 20.5 points (-118)

I took this exact wager yesterday when the Indiana Pacers played the Sacramento Kings and it narrowly missed.

Siakam scored 19 points on 7-of-14 shooting but we need to add some context. He played only 28 minutes in a blowout win, which was his second-lowest mark of the season.

It was an unfortunate beat but should work in our favour tonight, considering the former Toronto Raptor is well-rested heading into a plus matchup.

Siakam is averaging team highs in points (20.1) and field goal attempts (14.6) while shooting 52.5% from the field and 42.5% from deep.

He’s the number one option on a team where Tyrese Haliburton is an unpredictable scorer with a pass-first mindset.

Tonight, the Pacers take on a Golden State Warriors team with a massive weak spot in its defence.

The Warriors rank 29th in mid-range defence (45.1%), per Cleaning the Glass.
Siakam takes 41% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 94th percentile among all NBA players.

Golden State also allows the 10th-most points per game to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Siakam has scored 19-plus points in five of his last six games, clearing this mark four times.

Quick picks

Thompson over 3.5 threes (+128): Luka Doncic is in danger of missing a third consecutive game with a heel injury, so bettors should keep an eye on that moving toward game time.

If he can’t go, I love Thompson’s chances of clearing this total. But even if the reigning scoring champion plays, this line should be within reach.

Thompson has found his 3-point stroke and is shooting 45.3% from deep this month and 39.2% on the season.

He’s cleared this line in three of his last four games and has hit at least three triples in five of his last six.

The Dallas Mavericks are going up against a Portland Trail Blazers team allowing the seventh-most 3s per game (13.9) at the third-highest rate (37.5%).

Mobley over 17.5 points (-115): The biggest risk with this play — in my mind — is a blowout.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 14-point favourites against the Utah Jazz, meaning Mobley could find himself on the bench if things get out of hand.

But from a pure numbers perspective, this seems like a great wager:

Mobley is averaging a career-high 18.4 PPG
He’s gone over this mark in 7/10 games
He’s shooting 60.4% from the field this month

On top of his consistent production, he gets a huge plus matchup. The Jazz have the worst midrange (46.2%) and rim (70.9%) defence in basketball and that’s where Mobley takes 91% of his shots from.

Picks made at 9:48 a.m. ET on 12/23/2024.

EPL Matchday 18 picks and predictions: Back Arsenal to score, take the over in Nottingham vs. Tottenham

I’ve got two bets for the Premier League’s post-Christmas Day slate.

The pregame narrative: Nottingham Forest host Tottenham on Boxing Day in a game which should have a boatload of scoring. On Friday, look for Arsenal to lay a beating on bottom-feeding Ipswich Town.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 18 picks.

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Best Bet: Nottingham/Tottenham over 3.5 goals (+115)

Anyone who thinks soccer is boring needs to watch a Tottenham game.

The Spurs have one of the league’s most potent attacks and one of the most porous defences. Injuries to goaltender Guglielmo Vicario and defenders Christian Romero and Micky van de Ven have made them particularly weak lately.

Tottenham just lost 6-3 to Liverpool after beating Manchester United 4-3 in the EFL Cup.

Agne Postecoglou’s side has scored three-plus goals in four of its last five fixtures across all competitions but that’s only resulted in two wins and a draw.

Nottingham is a much more conservative team but it has scored two plus in three straight and will be in a good spot to find the scoresheet at home.

Tottenham ranks fifth in expected goals (30.6) and I expect them to stick to their open style of play which should lead to a high-scoring affair.

Key stat: Seven of Tottenham’s last 10 games have gone over 3.5 goals.

Quick pick

Arsenal over 2.5 goals (-154): Arsenal needs to put its foot on the gas to catch league-leading Liverpool.

The Gunners have picked up points in seven straight fixtures but are 4-3-0 in that span.

They are coming off a 5-1 blowout win against Crystal Palace and are in a good position to replicate that against Ipswich Town.

The newly-promoted side sits 18th in the table and has the second-highest xGA (35.0). Ipswich Town has lost four of the last five and just gave up four goals to Newcastle United.

Mikel Arteta’s side doesn’t play the most exciting brand of football but this should be a game where it can get out and run early.

Picks made at 2:24 p.m. on 12/22/24.

EPL Matchday 18 picks and predictions: Back Arsenal to score, take the over in Nottingham vs. Tottenham

I’ve got two bets for the Premier League’s post-Christmas Day slate.

The pregame narrative: Nottingham Forest host Tottenham on Boxing Day in a game which should have a boatload of scoring. On Friday, look for Arsenal to lay a beating on bottom-feeding Ipswich Town.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 18 picks.

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Best Bet: Nottingham/Tottenham over 3.5 goals (+133)

Anyone who thinks soccer is boring needs to watch a Tottenham game.

The Spurs have one of the league’s most potent attacks and one of the most porous defences. Injuries to goaltender Guglielmo Vicario and defenders Christian Romero and Micky van de Ven have made them particularly weak lately.

Tottenham just lost 6-3 to Liverpool after beating Manchester United 4-3 in the EFL Cup.

Agne Postecoglou’s side has scored three-plus goals in four of its last five fixtures across all competitions but that’s only resulted in two wins and a draw.

Nottingham is a much more conservative team but it has scored two plus in three straight and will be in a good spot to find the scoresheet at home.

Tottenham ranks fifth in expected goals (30.6) and I expect them to stick to their open style of play which should lead to a high-scoring affair.

Key stat: Seven of Tottenham’s last 10 games have gone over 3.5 goals.

Quick pick

Arsenal over 2.5 goals (-141): Arsenal needs to put its foot on the gas to catch league-leading Liverpool.

The Gunners have picked up points in seven straight fixtures but are 4-3-0 in that span.

They are coming off a 5-1 blowout win against Crystal Palace and are in a good position to replicate that against Ipswich Town.

The newly-promoted side sits 18th in the table and has the second-highest xGA (35.0). Ipswich Town has lost four of the last five and just gave up four goals to Newcastle United.

Mikel Arteta’s side doesn’t play the most exciting brand of football but this should be a game where it can get out and run early.

Picks made at 2:24 p.m. on 12/22/24.

Nuggets vs. Pelicans same-game parlay predictions Dec. 22: Back Nikola Jokic and Dejounte Murray at +310

The Denver Nuggets and New Orleans Pelicans wrap up Sunday’s three-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Denver is a 9.5-point favourite but I’ll simply back it to win tonight. Prop bets on Nikola Jokic and Dejounte Murray round out this +310 wager.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Pelicans same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 22.

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Parlay: Nuggets moneyline + Jokic over 1.5 threes + Murray over 7.5 assists (+310)

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Nuggets moneyline (-420): Injuries have derailed the Pelicans’ season.

Nearly everyone in the team’s starting five has missed time and their two leading scorers from last season — Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram — are out tonight.

New Orleans is a conference-worst 5-24 and has lost 15 of its past 16 games.

One of its five wins came against Denver back in November but I can’t see that happening again tonight. Jokic is playing at an MVP pace and Jamal Murray is starting to find his shooting stroke.

The Nuggets have won three of their last four while averaging 128.8 points per game — I expect them to keep their foot on the gas.

SGP legs

Jokic over 1.5 threes (-143): Just when you thought Jokic couldn’t get any better, he did.

The three-time MVP is frontrunning his way to another trophy averaging a career-best 31.3 points per game. That’s been thanks to shooting an insane 50.0% from beyond the arc.

Jokic has made 2+ threes in 16/22 games this year.
He’s 11-2 against this line in his last 13 games.

The Pelicans have the 27th-ranked 3-point defence (37.3%) and give up the sixth-most 3s per game (14.3).

Jokic was sidelined when Denver lost to New Orleans earlier this season but I expect him to be active from beyond the arc tonight.

Murray over 7.5 assists (-108): Murray was the Pelicans’ big off-season acquisition and he’s starting to heat up after missing the first two months of the season with an injury.

The former Atlanta Hawk is averaging 7.3 assists in December and has cleared this line in four of his last five games.

His 12.3 potential assists per game rank 16th in the NBA, too.

Denver hasn’t been as defensively stout as in recent years and is giving up the third-most assists per game to opposing PGs (10.1), according to Fantasy Pros.

Picks made at 11:53 a.m. ET 12/22/2024.

Rockets vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions Dec. 22: Fade Scottie Barnes in +475 ticket

The Toronto Raptors host the Houston Rockets at Scotiabank Arena on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has been a great ATS team and I like it to cover as a teased-up home underdog. Fade Scottie Barnes and back Jabari Smith Jr. to round out this +475 ticket.

Check out my Rockets vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 22.

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Parlay: Raptors +14.5 + Barnes under 34.5 PRA + Smith over 1.5 threes (+475)

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Raptors +14.5 (-345): Toronto has mastered the competitive loss — or as some like to call it: “The dignified tank.”

At 7-21, the Raptors sit near the basement of the NBA standings. Their 18-9-1 ATS record, however, ranks third in the league.

That includes a stellar 10-3-1 ATS mark as a home underdog.

I’ve teased this spread up 6.5 points which should be more than enough leeway against a Rockets team which has been mediocre on the road.

Houston is 7-6 straight up away from Toyota Center and has only covered this number in one of those games.

SGP legs

Barnes under 34.5 PRA (-109): Fading Barnes while backing Toronto ATS skyrockets this play’s payout thanks to some negative correlation.

And the good news is the Raptors can still cover a huge number without Barnes having a big night.

This is a nightmare matchup for Toronto’s small forward, who is playing in his second game since returning from an injury.

Houston ranks first in rebounding rate (42.6%).
The Rockets allow the 10th-fewest points (21.8) and third-fewest assists (3.45) to small forwards per game, according to Fantasy Pros.

Barnes is averaging career highs in points (20.3) and assists (7.3) but he’s still fallen under this mark in three of his last four and seven of 15 on the season.

Smith over 1.5 threes (-136): I like this as a straight wager, even with the juice involved.

Smith isn’t a volume shooter from deep but he’s been accurate and has a solid matchup.

The third-year power forward has cleared this line in nine of his last 10 starts — hitting three-plus 3s five times — and is shooting 36.4% from deep.

Toronto allows the 10th-most 3s per game to opposing power forwards and Smith hit multiple 3s in both games against the Raptors last season.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET 12/22/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 22: Back Siakam, Sabonis and Smith Jr.

A matchup between the Indiana Pacers and Sacramento Kings is the focus of today’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Pascal Siakam is running hot and I expect him to have a big game in an exploitable matchup. Elsewhere, back Jabari Smith Jr. from deep against the Toronto Raptors.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 22.

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Best bet: Siakam over 20.5 points (-130)

For better or worse, Siakam has been Indiana’s lead man this season.

The former Raptor is averaging team highs in points (20.1) and field goal attempts (14.6) while shooting 52.6% from the field and 42.6% from deep.

Tyrese Haliburton is breaking out of his shooting slump but is still an unpredictable scorer with a pass-first mindset.

Siakam has cleared this total in four of his last five games and took a season-high 22 shots against the Phoenix Suns on Thursday (Haliburton took just nine).

With a high-scoring floor and a favourable matchup, Spicy P should stay hot.

The Kings rank 26th in mid-range defence (44.2%), per Cleaning the Glass.
Siakam takes 41% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 94th percentile among all NBA players.

Key stat: Siakam scored 22 points on 10-of-16 shooting in his only matchup against the Kings since joining Indiana.

Quick picks

Smith over 1.5 threes (-130): Smith doesn’t take a ton of 3s but he’s fairly accurate and has a fantastic matchup this evening.

The Houston Rockets power forward is shooting 36.4% from deep and has cleared this line in nine of his last 10 starts — hitting three-plus 3s five times.

Tonight he takes on a Raptors team giving up the 10th-most 3s per game to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

Smith canned multiple 3s in both games against Toronto last season.

Picks made at 10:00 a.m. ET on 12/22/2024.