The Green Bay Packers host the New Orleans Saints for the final matchup of Week 16.
The pregame narrative: New Orleans is missing most of its start power and is a 14.5-point underdog at Lambeau Field. I’m staying away from picking a side and will instead roll with prop bets on Spencer Rattler and Josh Jacobs.
Check out my Saints vs. Packers same-game parlay predictions for Monday Night Football.
Saints vs. Packers same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Rattler under 179.5 passing yards + Jacobs over 90.5 rushing yards + Jacobs to score (+310)
Rattler under 179.5 passing yards (-124): The Saints will likely be down big, meaning Rattler will have to throw a lot.
I don’t think that will matter though, for a few reasons.
First off, Rattler just isn’t that good. The rookie has fallen under this mark in three straight starts after throwing for 243 yards (on 40 attempts) in his debut.
- Week 15 vs. Commanders: 135 yards (10-of-21 passing)
- Week 8 vs. Chargers: 156 yards (12-of-24 passing)
- Week 7 vs. Broncos: 172 yards (25-of-35 passing)
Green Bay’s secondary has been elite since its Week 11 bye, ranking fifth in RBSDM.com’s EPA per dropback. The Packers rank ninth in pressure rate (22.9%) and I expect Rattler to struggle behind a bad offensive line.
Not to mention Rattler won’t have anyone to throw to. New Orleans is missing Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rasheed Shaheed and Tayson Hill, all of whom are out on Monday.
Other parlay picks
Jacobs over 90.5 rushing yards (-117): This line seems light given Jacobs’ usage and his opponent.
Matt LaFleur has been feeding his bell cow 21.4 carries per game over the last five weeks. Jacobs toted the ball 26 times for 94 yards his last time out, which isn’t super efficient, but still got the job done.
If he gets anywhere near that number of touches he should breeze by this total.
The Saints allow the sixth-most rushing yards per game (134.4) and the most yards per rush (5.0).
Jacobs has cleared this mark in four of his last seven games and Green Bay should be in a run-heavy script all night.
Jacobs to score (-265): Let’s talk more about how important Jacobs has been to Green Bay.
The first-year Packer had a slow start with just two touchdowns in his first seven games. LaFleur admitted he needed to get Jacobs the ball more in the red zone and did just that.
- Jacobs has scored 11 times in his last seven games, cashing this bet in five straight.
- His 25 rushes within the 10-yard line since Week 8 are the most in the NFL.
Jacobs has the speed to rip off a deep run for a touchdown but he does his best work as a battering ram at the goal line.
Don’t be surprised if he finds the end zone multiple times tonight.
Picks made at 1:40 p.m. on 12/23/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.