I’ve got two prop bets from Thursday’s 14-game, pre-holiday NBA slate.
The pregame narrative: Pascal Siakam and Evan Mobley have been producing and find themselves in plus matchups this evening.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 23.
NBA prop bets
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Best bet: Siakam over 20.5 points (-112)
I took this exact wager yesterday when the Indiana Pacers played the Sacramento Kings and it narrowly missed.
Siakam scored 19 points on 7-of-14 shooting but we need to add some context. He played only 28 minutes in a blowout win, which was his second-lowest mark of the season.
It was an unfortunate beat but should work in our favour tonight, considering the former Toronto Raptor is well-rested heading into a plus matchup.
Siakam is averaging team highs in points (20.1) and field goal attempts (14.6) while shooting 52.5% from the field and 42.5% from deep.
He’s the number one option on a team where Tyrese Haliburton is an unpredictable scorer with a pass-first mindset.
Tonight, the Pacers take on a Golden State Warriors team with a massive weak spot in its defence.
- The Warriors rank 29th in mid-range defence (45.1%), per Cleaning the Glass.
- Siakam takes 41% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 94th percentile among all NBA players.
Golden State also allows the 10th-most points per game to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.
Key stat: Siakam has scored 19-plus points in five of his last six games, clearing this mark four times.
Quick picks
Mobley over 17.5 points (-134): The biggest risk with this play — in my mind — is a blowout.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 14-point favourites against the Utah Jazz, meaning Mobley could find himself on the bench if things get out of hand.
But from a pure numbers perspective, this seems like a great wager:
- Mobley is averaging a career-high 18.4 PPG
- He’s gone over this mark in 7/10 games
- He’s shooting 60.4% from the field this month
On top of his consistent production, he gets a huge plus matchup. The Jazz have the worst midrange (46.2%) and rim (70.9%) defence in basketball and that’s where Mobley takes 91% of his shots from.
Picks made at 12:08 p.m. ET on 12/23/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.