Christmas Day brings an electric NFL doubleheader loaded with prop betting opportunities.
The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Kansas City Chiefs and I expect two running backs — Jaylen Warren and Isiah Pacheco — to rumble. After that, look for Nico Collins to have a huge game against the Baltimore Ravens.
Check out the best NFL prop bets for the Week 17 action on Dec. 25.
NFL prop bets
Go to full NFL Week 17 betting markets.
Best bet: Collins over 6.5 receptions (-112)
The Houston Texans will need Collins at his best down the stretch.
Tank Dell suffered a gruesome knee injury on Sunday which was a big blow to an already thin receiving corps. Stefon Diggs is on the IR and John Metchie has been ruled out, so expect Collins to get plenty of targets.
The fourth-year receiver has already been C.J. Stroud’s go-to guy this season.
- Collins leads the Texans in receptions (60), targets (88), yards (909) and touchdowns (six) despite missing five games with a hamstring injury.
- He is targeted in 32.5% of his routes run, according to RotoWire, which ranks in the 99th percentile of all receivers.
His target share is sky-high and Dell was in the lineup for every game with Collins except one — and the results were insane.
Collins hauled in 12 of 15 targets for 151 yards and a score against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Dating back to last season, he’s cleared this line in three straight without Dell.
And it’s not like Baltimore’s secondary is elite.
The Ravens give up the sixth-most receptions per game to wide receivers (13.3) and rank 25th in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback.
Key stat: Collins has cleared this line in three straight games without Dell dating back to last season.
Quick picks
Warren over 59.5 rushing and receiving yards (-114): I don’t know how Mike Tomlin can look at the last three games and not give Warren the lion’s share of carries.
- Warren: 107 rushing yards (4.3 YPC), 72 receiving yards
- Najee Harris: 109 rushing yards (3.5 YPC), 7 receiving yards
The undrafted free agent has been substantially outperforming the former first-round pick and played in a season-high 67% of snaps last Saturday against the Philadelphia Eagles.
So maybe Tomlin is giving Warren a leading role — which would be great for this wager.
Warren has cleared this mark in six of his last seven games despite operating in a timeshare with Harris.
The Chiefs are a nightmare matchup for RBs but this is a manageable line.
Pacheco over 44.5 rushing yards (-112): Pittsburgh’s rush defence is looking awfully suspect lately.
Last weekend, the Steelers gave up 220 rushing yards to Derrick Henry and the Baltimore Ravens. The week before that, they allowed 131 against the Saquon Barkley-led Philadelphia Eagles.
Pacheco is far removed from being Kansas City’s bell cow but he still gets enough carries where clearing this should be a cinch.
Pittsburgh ranks 27th in defensive EPA per rush over the last five games with an opposing RB clearing this mark in every game.
Picks made at 3:30 p.m. ET on 12/23/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.