Avery Perri

The Detroit Pistons and Sacramento Kings duel in Thursday’s NBA nightcap

The pregame narrative: Detroit has won three of its last four and I’ll bank some extra points with it on the road on an alternate spread. Prop bets on Tim Hardaway Jr. and DeAaron Fox round out this +310 SGP.

Check out my Pistons vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 26.

Pistons vs. Kings predictions

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Parlay: Pistons +8.5 + Hardaway under 10.5 points + Fox over 5.5 assists (+310)

Pistons +8.5 (-177): Has Detroit finally turned a corner? It’s probably too early to say but the Pistons have been playing well lately.

J. B. Bickerstaff’s squad picked up back-to-back wins over the Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns and have now won four of their last six.

The Pistons kicked that streak off by beating a surging Knicks team in New York.

I keep waiting for Sacramento to find its footing but that might not happen. The Kings are on a four-game losing streak and are now 13-17 on the season.

They’re loaded with talent but haven’t been able to put things together.

Sacramento is 10-19-1 ATS including a 4-9-1 mark as a home favourite. Detroit, meanwhile, is 8-4-1 ATS as a road underdog.

SGP legs

Hardaway under 10.5 points (-143): This is a great spot to fade Hardaway.

Detroit’s small forward is shooting an uninspiring 42.2% from the field and is only taking 8.1 shots per night.

There are games where Hardaway isn’t involved offensively — he’s scored five or fewer points five times in the last 15 games — and I think tonight will be one of those contests.

Sacramento is allowing the sixth-fewest points per game to opposing SFs, per Fantasy Pros.

Hardaway has cleared this line in consecutive games but is 12-15 against this number on the season.

Fox over 5.5 assists (-295): Fox’s floor as a facilitator is high:

• He has averaged at least 5.6 assists per game since his rookie season.
  
• Fox has 5+ assists in 23/30 games this year.

It’s worth noting that this is a tough matchup.

The Pistons allow the second-fewest assists per game to point guards and the 11th-fewest assists overall.

However, Fox has been dishing it. Sacramento’s floor general has seven-plus assists in eight of 10 games in December. I like him to stay hot despite Detroit’s defensive prowess.

Picks made at 12:50 p.m. ET 12/26/2024.

We’re back to regularly scheduled programming with a nine-game Boxing Day NBA slate, starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.

The pregame narrative: Jimmy Butler has demanded a trade request which puts Tyler Herro in a position to be the alpha dog on the Miami Heat. I’m expecting him to score and also have bets on Nikola Vucevic and DeAndre Ayton.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 26.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Herro over 22.5 points (-132)

Let’s stay hot after going 3-for-3 in yesterday’s prop bets.

Based on how Herro’s played this season, you could already say he is “the guy” in Miami.

• 23.9 points/game (team-high)
• 17.6 FGA/game (team-high)
• 40.3% 3-point percentage (career-best)

Butler gave the Heat’s front office some coal on Christmas by requesting a trade — he’s listed as doubtful to play tonight, for obvious reasons.

The small forward averaged 11.1 shots a night and that volume is likely going Herro’s way.

Miami is on the road against an Orlando Magic squad that’s ravaged by injuries. Moritz and Franz Wagner are out alongside Paolo Banchero but the team still ranks eighth in defensive rating this month.

Herro barely fell under this total with 22 points when he played the Magic on Dec. 21 but had an uncharacteristically poor shooting night (7-of-17).

The volume was still there, though, and this is a nice opportunity to get back on track.

Key stat: Herro has scored 23+ points in 15 of 27 starts.

Quick picks

Vucevic over 1.5 threes (-137): Vucevic has taken a page out of Nikola Jokic’s playbook by massively improving his 3-point percentage as a big man.

The Chicago Bulls center averages 2.1 makes on 4.7 attempts per night, an elite 45.2% clip. That’s after shooting 29.4% last season.

He’s cleared this mark in eight of his last 10 games and bagged multiples triples in both contests against the Atlanta Hawks earlier this year.

Atlanta allows the most 3s per game (15.9) at the second-highest rate (38.2%).

Ayton over 14.5 points (-106): Ayton has been a remarkably consistent but largely unimpressive player this season, averaging between 14.1 and 14.4 points per game every month.

He’s not putting up eye-popping numbers but is shooting the ball well — 61.5% in December, to be exact — and has a high floor as a scorer.

Tonight’s matchup against the Utah Jazz should be exploitable.

Utah allows the fourth-most points per game to opposing centers, according to Fantasy Pros, and the 11th-most points in the paint.

Picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 12/26/2024.

The Toronto Raptors are back in action, this time as huge road underdogs against the Memphis Grizzlies.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has been a great ATS team despite its horrible win-loss record. I’ll take the Raps to cover as teased-up underdogs alongside prop bets on Ja Morant and Zach Edey.

Check out my Raptors vs. Grizzlies same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 26.

Raptors vs. Grizzlies predictions

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Parlay: Raptors +14.5 + Morant over 19.5 points + Edey over 8.5 rebounds (+265)

Raptors +15.5 (-182): Toronto (7-23) has the third-worst win percentage in basketball but has mastered the “competitive loss.”

The Raps are 19-10-1 ATS which includes an 8-6 ATS record as road underdogs.

They are missing some players — Jakob Poeltl, Bruce Brown and Immanuel Quickley are out while Jamal Shead is questionable — but that’s been the case all season.

Memphis is finding its footing and owns a solid 20-10 record but Toronto has covered this number in 27 of 30 games this season.

I’ll happily bank a boatload of points with the Raptors.

SGP legs

Morant over 19.5 points (-230): Morant averaged north of 25 points per game in each of the last three seasons and it’s only a matter of time before he gets back there.

The point guard is playing a career-low 28.1 minutes per night and is averaging his fewest field goal attempts (16.2) since his sophomore campaign.

But that’s mainly due to Memphis handling him with kid gloves after an injury-riddled 2023-24.

We’ve seen flashes of the old Morant lately as he’s scored 20-plus in four of his last five.

The outlier was a nine-point outing against the Golden State Warriors where he only played 17 minutes in a blowout victory.

If the Raptors keep this close as I predict, he should breeze by this line.

Edey over 8.5 rebounds (-127): Toronto ranks fifth in rebounding rate but Edey should feast with Poeltl sidelined.

The Raptors average 45.8 rebounds per game with Poeltl and 39.3 in the four games he missed. Check out how opposing centers did in those contests:

• Isaiah Hartenstein: 16 rebounds
• Day’Ron Sharpe: Nine rebounds
• Alperen Sengun: 10 rebounds
• Karl-Anthony Towns: 10 rebounds

The 7-foot-4, 305-pound Torontonian is only averaging 7.5 rebounds per game but we’ve seen an increase month over month.

Edey is averaging 9.5 boards per game in December and has cleared this total in four of his last five games.

Picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET 12/26/2024.

The Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors meet in a star-studded Christmas Day matchup.

The pregame narrative: Neither team has been playing their best basketball lately so I’ll instead turn to the over on a rather modest point total. Steph Curry, Anthony Davis and Austin Reaves are also featured in this +335 SGP.

Check out my Lakers vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 25.

Lakers vs. Warriors predictions

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Parlay: Over 224.5 points + Curry over 3.5 threes + Davis over 24.5 points + Reaves over 19.5 PRA (+335)

Over 224.5 points (-115): These teams tend to play in track meets when they match up.

The over is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings between Los Angeles and Golden State with an average point total of 236.5.

All four games last year blew by this total with at least 238 points scored.

Golden State’s offensive productivity has fallen off a cliff after a 12-3 start to the season but so has its defence.

The Warriors are 20th in defensive rating during their current 3-10 stretch and recently gave up 140-plus points to the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks.

Other SGP legs

Curry over 3.5 threes (-215): Curry is averaging 21.8 points per game which is his lowest mark since 2011-12, excluding the 2019-20 season where he played just five games.

But his 3-point volume is still sky-high and he’s canning triples at a solid rate.

• Curry is averaging 4.1 makes on 10.1 attempts per night (40.3%).
  
• He’s cleared this total in 14 of 23 starts and has 3+ threes in 20/23 games.

The Lakers rank 19th in 3-point defence (36.5%) and Curry averaged 6.0 threes in four games against L.A. last season, clearing this line three times.

It’s unlikely we’ll see a monster game from Curry but this teased-down total is still well within his range.

Davis over 24.5 points (-162): Davis has cooled off after a nuclear start to the season. He’s fallen under this number in three straight games.

That said, The Brow still averages 26.6 PPG and has cleared this total in 16 of 27 starts.

Golden State profiles to be a great matchup for Davis, who leads Los Angeles in points and field-goal attempts (18.4) per game.

The Warriors have the second-worst midrange defence (45.7%) in the NBA and Davis ranks in the 92nd percentile for mid-range shot frequency (47%), per Cleaning the Glass.

Reaves over 19.5 PRA (-435): I took Reaves over 24.5 PRA as one of my three Christmas Day prop bets and will shave a few counting stats off for safety here.

L.A.’s shooting guard has been buzzing since his return from injury earlier this month:

• 18.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 5.0 APG
• 25+ PRA in 4/5 games
• 20+ PRA in 5/5 games

Reaves is only shooting 44.1% from the floor and 34.3% from deep in that span but his volume is up and that’s nice to see.

There is room for improvement as he faces a Warriors team allowing the 11th-most points and 12th-most rebounds per game to SGs.

Picks made at 11:00 a.m. on 12/24/24.

The Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets continue their home-and-home with a Christmas Day showdown in the desert.

The pregame narrative: Denver blew out Phoenix on its home court on Monday and I expect the Nuggets to at least cover an alt spread on Wednesday. Prop bets on Bradley Beal and Aaron Gordon round out this +325 same-game parlay.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 25.

Nuggets vs. Suns predictions

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Parlay: Nuggets +5.5 + Gordon over 12.5 points + Beal over 19.5 points (+325)

Nuggets +5.5 (-335): The Suns better hope Devin Booker isn’t out for long.

The four-time All-Star has been pretty durable but the results haven’t been pretty when he’s sidelined.

• Since the start of last season, Phoenix is 6-9 without Booker.
  
• In those games, the Suns have an offensive rating of 113.9 (118.7 when he plays).
  
• Phoenix is 0-2 without Booker this year, losing to the Detroit Pistons and Nuggets.

Denver beat Phoenix by 27 points on Monday without Jamal Murray in the lineup. The Canadian guard might be back on Christmas but the Nuggets should cover this number even if he remains sidelined.

The Suns are 5-12 in their last 17 games and only two of those wins came against teams above .500.

Other SGP legs

Gordon over 12.5 points (-114): Gordon has been a remarkably consistent scorer for Denver over the last four seasons.

The high-flying power forward has put up between 13.9 and 16.3 PPG each year while never dipping below 52.0% shooting.

To be fair, I would hope his FG% stays around there because most of his damage gets done at the rim out of the dunker’s spot.

Phoenix allows the ninth-most paint points per game (49.6) and has the 10th-worst rim defence (67.1%), according to Cleaning the Glass.

Gordon has cleared this mark in five of his last eight and scored 12 points in 23 minutes in Monday’s blowout win over the Suns.

Beal over 19.5 points (-143): I backed Beal to score 20-plus on Monday and will run it back.

The shooting guard has been productive since returning from injury on Nov. 26.

• 19.1 PPG on 53.4% shooting
• 15+ points in 8/9 games

The Nuggets allow the third-most points per game to shooting guards, according to Fantasy Pros, and Beal dropped 23 against them on Monday.

His floor as a scorer is predictable and he should continue to take more shots with Booker sidelined.

Beal has cleared this number in six of his last seven games without Booker, including each of the last two.

Picks made at 11:00 a.m. on 12/24/24.

I’ve got three prop bets from the NBA’s five-game Christmas Day slate.

The pregame narrative: Joel Embiid is finally (seemingly) healthy and I expect him to fill the basket against the Boston Celtics. Elsewhere, back Victor Wembanyama and Austin Reaves

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 25.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Embiid over 25.5 points (-136)

Embiid’s season has been a sideshow between the missed games and off-court comments but remember, this is one of the best scorers on the planet.

The Philadelphia 76er averaged north of 30 points the last three seasons and is coming off a career-best 34.7 PPG — nearly 10 points higher than this total.

He’s only putting up 20.6 this season but we’re talking about an eight-game sample size.

Embiid has scored 30-plus points three times in the last five games. Let’s take a look at the outliers:

• 9 points vs. Spurs: Ejected in the second quarter
• 12 points vs. Pacers: Left in the second quarter with a sinus fracture

If he can finish Wednesday’s game against the Boston Celtics — which clearly isn’t a guarantee these days — I love Embiid’s chances of having a vintage performance.

Key stat: Embiid is 5-1 against this line in his last six regular-season games against Boston, averaging 32.3 PPG.

Quick picks

Wembanyama over 9.5 rebounds (+112): Wembanyama is averaging 9.9 rebounds per game, a number which would certainly be higher if he wasn’t blocking shots at an absurd rate.

He has 29 blocks in his last four outings — that’s not a typo — and averages 4.0 a night on the season.

The New York Knicks get blocked at the 11th-lowest rate and should be looking to create offence away from the 7-foot-4 phenom.

Wembaynama is going up against Karl-Anthony Towns, who is averaging a league-best 13.9 rebounds per game. That also explains why we can get this bet at plus money.

But the Frenchman is matchup-proof on the glass.

And while it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, Wemby cleared this line in his last three straight games against KAT while he was on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Reaves over 24.5 PRA (-127): Reaves has been balling out since his return from injury on Dec. 13:

• 18.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 5.0 APG
• 25+ PRA in 4/5 games

The Los Angeles Lakers shooting guard is having his best scoring month of the season despite shooting a middling 44.1% from the floor and 34.3% from deep.

His volume is up, though, and that is the biggest boon toward posting large PRA totals.

The Golden State Warriors allow the 11th-most points and 12th-most rebounds per game to SGs, according to Fantasy Pros.

Reaves had 22 points, seven rebounds and six assists the last time he played them.

Picks made at 9:18 a.m. ET on 12/24/2024.